Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[J10]

A quite remarkable change around in the models today, with the potential for a monster easterly coming out of nowhere.

If this comes off, pattern change with a vengeance.

However, huge caution at the moment, as Easterlies are notoriously difficult to forecast, and so much can go wrong.

[keithlucky]

A quite remarkable change around in the models today, with the potential for a monster easterly coming out of nowhere.

If this comes off, pattern change with a vengeance.

However, huge caution at the moment, as Easterlies are notoriously difficult to forecast, and so much can go wrong.

If the easterly does come off the convection off the N sea would be interesting with a similar outcome to the weather of February 1991.

[J10]

If the easterly does come off the convection off the N sea would be interesting with a similar outcome to the weather of February 1991.

I think we may be getting ahead of ourselves there.

However now you have brought it up, and me never wishing to miss a chance to reminisce I remember the main snow event on 7 Feb 1991, when there were 6 inches of level snow in addition to the snow already laying (from the first snow on the 31st Jan). Despite the bright sunshine on the Friday and Saturday, the thaw didn't even start until the Sunday (10th) and it wasn't until the heavy rain on the 14th did most of the snow finally go.

[keithlucky]

I think we may be getting ahead of ourselves there.

However now you have brought it up, and me never wishing to miss a chance to reminisce I remember the main snow event on 7 Feb 1991, when there were 6 inches of level snow in addition to the snow already laying (from the first snow on the 31st Jan). Despite the bright sunshine on the Friday and Saturday, the thaw didn't even start until the Sunday (10th) and it wasn't until the heavy rain on the 14th did most of the snow finally go.

Yes getting to far ahead but every time a easterly is mentioned 1991 stuck in the mind.Frozen points got stuck in London.

[Snowmadsam]

If this change does come off then I am going to be up watching the change in temperature take place on my weather station

[welshgritter]

I'm going to put a bet on the 20th of Jan for the change. That particular date has been stuck in my head for ages so that's the feeling I get????

[Marcus_surfer]

One day of snow will do me...things better change soon...it will be April before we know it!

[J10]

One day of snow will do me...things better change soon...it will be April before we know it!

Whether or not we get an Easterly, the pattern does seem to be changing and finally this is getting into the T+144 timeframe

Allied to this projections of Sudden Stratospheric warnings event finally set to happen (after much discussion so far this winter) and in a big way and the weather rut is coming to an end.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2205928

As to whether it bring better weather here is a completely different story.

As I said in the model thread earlier, without blocking to the NW, Easterlies have tended to fail, even when they have looked promising.

[alijoe]

Yes, they had the ECM and GFS data from today early me thinks - looks like we may get to see winter after all, but what a sudden change - and yes GP defo should get a job with the meto - loads of jobs with them have been advertised recently! - just have to see now how severe this spell could get - whether it gets "watered down" or turns into the cold spell from hell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OMG,,,, I am happy, you sound a TAD excited and I have missed this....... No there is a long way to go, but with you getting a little bit happy, it deffinately gives me a little hope lol.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Fairly mild week ahead for Wales & all of the UK as we see high pressure to our south with the jet stream to the north of the UK, keeping us on the mild side as seen on the GFS 0Z charts below:

Jet Stream chart:

Upper air temps:

As you can see the cold still locked towards our NW on the above chart.

A positive is that we dont have the continuation of powerful atlantic systems brining the risk of further flooding to parts of Wales, next week looks to be dry although some light rain/drizzle is possible in any thicker cloud that moves in from the SW this more so a risk for Western and South Western parts.

As for what may happen beyond this in the further outlook i think it becomes very difficult to say, we have seen the models present us with the idea of an easterly. Its very interesting as i thought the models were more keen on dropping troughing into Scandinavia with part of the PV (Polar vortex) becoming situated there with heights gradually building to our north and west....thus allowing North westerly/Northerly flows. Both situations are possible and both hold a more cold outlook. So lets see where it goes from here.

[ourson]

This pretty much sums it up for me for the next few days:

Mild shmild. Couldn't be more boring

[J10]

Some very interesting outputs in the medium term now coming out from the models.

ECM going for an Easterly (prob cold+ sunny for Wales) http://nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120108/00/ecm500.144.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120108/00/ecmt850.144.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120108/00/ecm500.192.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120108/00/ecmt850.192.png

GEM also tending to hint at a potential Easterly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1921.gif

GFS trying to keeo the jet powerful, which may keep the UK on the wrong side of the cold, dependent on the Northern and Eastern extent of the LP. http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120108/06/144/h850t850eu.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120108/06/144/h500slp.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120108/06/192/h850t850eu.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120108/06/192/h500slp.png

UKMO only goes out to T+144, but possibly not allowing the HP to develop nicely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The better the High pressure link to the East of the UK through to the Arctic High, the better then chance of an Easterly.

[TonyH]

It's all a lottery atm.

I may have underestimated temperatures for the coming week in my guide, it's reached 11.5c today (very mild), and above my predicted 7-11c category.

One things certain, the second half of January will be colder than than the first, but whether by a degree or several degrees is anyone's guess.

[J10]

The first half of January was easy to forecast, less so the 2nd half, and synoptics like this makes weather watching so interesting.

[J10]

A quite remarkable change around in the models today, with the potential for a monster easterly coming out of nowhere.

If this comes off, pattern change with a vengeance.

However, huge caution at the moment, as Easterlies are notoriously difficult to forecast, and so much can go wrong.

And so it proved.

Massive differences in the models, and anything is possible, even the kitchen sink.

[keithlucky]

Just for you Andy Joe Bast--- i has twitted we in Europe are going into winter in 10 days time.

Edited January 8, 2012 by keithlucky

[welshwizard]

was talking to the farmer who works the mountain behind me this afternoon and he said that the bulls etc had been up the mountain for far longer this winter than for many yrs,but he did say that been adivsed that winter will start around next weekend. i hope he is correct and that we get some nice dry cold weather without the wind. be interested in the model thread over the next few days to see what they make of what is going to happening.

[andymusic]

Just for you Andy Joe Bast--- i has twitted we in Europe are going into winter in 10 days time.

nice one - I've got him on my twitter feed but am too busy to keep up with him these days - miss his blog he used to do on accuweather - used to be a mindful of cryptic yet fairly accurate weather info for us - ah well, if Joe B is on the train, well here we go!

[Cymro]

nice one - I've got him on my twitter feed but am too busy to keep up with him these days - miss his blog he used to do on accuweather - used to be a mindful of cryptic yet fairly accurate weather info for us - ah well, if Joe B is on the train, well here we go!

Hardly accurate, he often forecasted what people wanted to hear, and went great depth's into makign everything OTT on cold etc, I can recall many a cold spell he wrongly hyped up.

[DeepSnow]

Whats the prospects of cold in the second half of this month for wales? Its been over a year since I last saw snow and this month is yet to see a temp below 3c here! Quite mild really, my most frost free winter so far for a long time, with only 1 proper frost in December!

[Cwmbran Eira]

Whats the prospects of cold in the second half of this month for wales? Its been over a year since I last saw snow and this month is yet to see a temp below 3c here! Quite mild really, my most frost free winter so far for a long time, with only 1 proper frost in December!

Although the models are flip flopping (sure sign of uncertainty) there does seem to be something afoot. A cool down this weekend after another mild spell then anything could happen. The 2nd half of Jan and Feb look interesting at this point.

My personal preference would be a good week or 2 of cold/snowy weather. I'm not really after another record breaking month. Wouldn't hear me moaning if that happened though.

Edited January 9, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[welshwizard]

well it looks like the farmer i was talking to on weekend may be correct, just been reading model thread and a few in there seem quite excited about whats around the corner,the farmer told me that from next weekend its going to change,dont know where he gets his info from but he said its norm correct ish lol.lets just sit back and wait and see what happens. i want some dry cold now as this rain and wind have just about done my head in.

[Snowmadsam]

well it looks like the farmer i was talking to on weekend may be correct, just been reading model thread and a few in there seem quite excited about whats around the corner,the farmer told me that from next weekend its going to change,dont know where he gets his info from but he said its norm correct ish lol.lets just sit back and wait and see what happens. i want some dry cold now as this rain and wind have just about done my head in.

Same, just get SOME cold in for a few days would be nice

[keithlucky]

Looking good for Sunday-Monday with possible rain turning to snow as the front is pushed westwards hope it comes off with a easterly to follow ,action at last.

[Snowmadsam]

Looking good for Sunday-Monday with possible rain turning to snow as the front is pushed westwards hope it comes off with a easterly to follow ,action at last.

If it did Happen maybe good for Western Parts of Wales as the easterly would have made the majority of the front colder (correct me if I am wrong) (and it would give me a extra day to do welsh homework!)

Right now, where's Andy the optimist!

Edited January 9, 2012 by Snowmadsam