Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

There is so much potential in next week charts Andy would faint.

[Snowmadsam]

There is so much potential in next week charts Andy would faint.

Ohh...my......... :o

[Snowmadsam]

Ecm at 120 doesn't look good

[keithlucky]

Ecm at 120 doesn't look good

Adam the met latest forecast turning colder this weekend into early next week remaining cold. The general trend of all models is a lot colder next week .(look at more than one chart look for general agreement) Edited January 9, 2012 by keithlucky

[Snowmadsam]

Sorry Keith, just highlighting one thing..ecm could just be having an off day ..hopefully it will change its tune tomorrow

[keithlucky]

Sorry Keith, just highlighting one thing..ecm could just be having an off day ..hopefully it will change its tune tomorrow

Still time for all to go wrong but with the met and a few other comments from other sources they seem confident of change to cold ,how much precipitation who knows.(mentioned on news 24)

[J10]

Strangely the GFS has gone for the easterly now that the ECM has backed off. So all to play off, but I'd have to favour no easterly as being odds on favourite.

Some colder (perhaps quite a bit colder weather) does seem likely towards the end of the month, although Tony does make a good point that's not saying much.

Have a look at the Stratosphere thread to get more info.

[andymusic]

If it did Happen maybe good for Western Parts of Wales as the easterly would have made the majority of the front colder (correct me if I am wrong) (and it would give me a extra day to do welsh homework!)

Right now, where's Andy the optimist!

sorry folks - just got back from another London trip (my other half is involved in something big, national TV, can't say what though) - WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW - GFS is amazing this afternoon - ECM not so good - looks like winter has finally shown itself - just when today all the newspapers are harping on about an early spring - gonna be a shock to the system when those temps arrive next week - at last some cold/snowy prospects - early winter last year and now a late winter this year - weather is all about balance I suppose!

[Snowmadsam]

sorry folks - just got back from another London trip (my other half is involved in something big, national TV, can't say what though) - WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW - GFS is amazing this afternoon - ECM not so good - looks like winter has finally shown itself - just when today all the newspapers are harping on about an early spring - gonna be a shock to the system when those temps arrive next week - at last some cold/snowy prospects - early winter last year and now a late winter this year - weather is all about balance I suppose!

Here we go (I found him ) looking forward to GFS 18z now...

[Blackjack]

At last something tantalizing on the horizon. Just in time to put my new/first weather station into good use. I missed the high winds as i couldn't get the wind sensor up in time.

[andymusic]

Sunday - Monday looks interesting for something wintry as the temps dip under that front - will all depend where the front is - and as always in these matters how much the high holds on or pushes back as to where the front is and how much colder air is advected onto it!

well I know it's FI on the GFS 18z - but here we go - blizzards for the middle of next week in Wales - there I've said it - only one run and way off into the maybe it will maybe it won't happen, but wow - this could be AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited January 9, 2012 by andymusic

[alijoe]

Sunday - Monday looks interesting for something wintry as the temps dip under that front - will all depend where the front is - and as always in these matters how much the high holds on or pushes back as to where the front is and how much colder air is advected onto it!

well I know it's FI on the GFS 18z - but here we go - blizzards for the middle of next week in Wales - there I've said it - only one run and way off into the maybe it will maybe it won't happen, but wow - this could be AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lol, well, It's seems like an eternity it has taken to hear you say the B word lol. Fingers crossed this happens as have to say, I have tried really really hard not to, but am a tad excited at the prospects. Just hope we do get something good soon for us, would be fab.

[welshwizard]

strange that all tv weather reporters are now going for much colder weather from sat and yet in models thread this morn all seems to have gone to pot. im glad i cant read these models or i would be worse than the guys on there lol. some sound quite depressed ha ha.from what i can gather last nights runs look fantastic and this mornings look pants

[andymusic]

strange that all tv weather reporters are now going for much colder weather from sat and yet in models thread this morn all seems to have gone to pot. im glad i cant read these models or i would be worse than the guys on there lol. some sound quite depressed ha ha.from what i can gather last nights runs look fantastic and this mornings look pants

GFS is still looking reasonably good - and from previous set ups like this, the core of it is on a knife edge, so loads of flip flopping to go yet - I will say this - after being in "Tropical" London yesterday at 18c at times - phew - it will be a right royal shocker to get frosts and much colder weather come this weekend!

[Cymro]

Again people are reading too much into one model that suits the outcome they want to see rather than looking at the whole spectrum and trying to find back up and support for certain models, There is definetly a shift in patterns, we can all agree on that wether that means we get plunged into the freezer is anyone's guess. But I think it's a bit premature to talk about Blizzards and what not as of yet we don't know for sure what will happen beyond saturday, uncertainty over sunday night/monday. Let's take each day as it comes, and let's hope this thread doesn't turn into one of those up and down jackle and hyde threads - namely the model thread.

[TonyH]

The balance in the model output looks more inclined towards no real cold (nor blizzards) over the next week or so.

Certainly a rather chilly weekend coming up with frosty nights should we see clear skies, and hopefully some pleasant sunshine by day for a change!

Both ECM and GFS trending zonal out in FI next week, which suggests rain or showers at times, some wintriness possible over the hills behind cold fronts. No blizzards or even much in the way of any snow expected from me in the next 10 days I'm afraid. Any real cold confined to Eastern Europe.

[andymusic]

I still think there is enormous potential - and the models are all over the place trying to work out what that actually is - cold is on the cards for the weekend - after that, things could get very interesting!

[Snowmadsam]

I still think there is enormous potential - and the models are all over the place trying to work out what that actually is - cold is on the cards for the weekend - after that, things could get very interesting!

Totally agree with you andy! Lets see what the ECM and GFS say later on tonight (It may be amazing you never know )

Derek Brockway has choose my Village to go on his map on Wales Today at 6:50 after I asked him on Twitter

Edited January 10, 2012 by Snowmadsam

[J10]

Hopefully there will be quite a lot of sunshine on the way over the weekend. If the surface flow is from the South East following that then temps tend to struggle at this time of year.

Cold and frosty will be a bit more seasonal.

[Snowmadsam]

Oh I wonder what the 18z will do now?

[Bonjangle]

Time 2 get the shovels and spades out Barry island here we come , snow my Arsenal , cold couple of days then back 2 mild again ... just love the sun getting stronger during the day and nights opening out aswell.. love the cold but bring on the Sprrriinnng

[Cymro]

Time 2 get the shovels and spades out Barry island here we come , snow my Arsenal , cold couple of days then back 2 mild again ... just love the sun getting stronger during the day and nights opening out aswell.. love the cold but bring on the Sprrriinnng

Lol although your right about the weather your post made me feel sick at how poor our winter has been this year? How about Mildest Winter on record anybody ?

[andymusic]

I think you guys are being premature - winter is about to strike - and so says the GFS 00z - loads of cold - and best of all - lots of precip = SNOW - it's coming - have faith - it's coming!

ECM 00z is looking fabarooni too - so who's gonna be building snowmen towards the end of next week?

Edited January 11, 2012 by andymusic

[Snowmadsam]

Will all of us be building snowmen?

[andymusic]

Will all of us be building snowmen?

can't see why not snowmadsman - it's building nicely towards something good I think