Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[Snowmadsam]

can't see why not snowmadsman - it's building nicely towards something good I think

wonder what 6z will say?

[Cwmbran Eira]

After a wobble yesterday, looks like the models are firming up on something a lot more interesting this morining. Some very exciting prospects offered this morning.

This winter looks like having a sting in it's tail. Can't wait!

[valley blue_501]

Whats all this about the end of winter?? We are only 11 days into Jan.... Winters in Wales only ever get going in Jan and Feb that when we have the worst of the snow and cold.......... We have had snow in April and the first weekend in May in the past.

[Cwmbran Eira]

Whats all this about the end of winter?? We are only 11 days into Jan.... Winters in Wales only ever get going in Jan and Feb that when we have the worst of the snow and cold.......... We have had snow in April and the first weekend in May in the past.

April & May are usually classed as spring according to most people

We are heading into the 2nd half of winter. The period most likely to give us cold & snow. I'll give you that one

[welshgritter]

Winters official start date was only the 21st of December....... last year we had it very very very early and I think peeps are benchmarking this upon whats happening this year. Loads of cold coming, February will be a very dry month, clear skies at day and night allowing for alot of cold.

[Cymro]

Everybody are concentrating too much on single runs (cough cough Andy cough )

Yeah it's great and exciting looking for the synoptic s and say there we have it cold, only for it to disappear and reappear on a continuous loop, but if you are going to do that you are also inevitably going to be disappointed, but at least we will get rid of this ridiculously mild squirm for a few days at least and what amounts of that will be interesting.

Although the lack of frost it is noteworthy that a lot of vegetation is appearing burned/yellow but due to lack of sunlight rather than cold, some years have seen the fields remain green all winter, they are yellow this year but for other reasons

[viking_smb]

as long as it is not like last year which was ott, I'm happy

[welshwizard]

my god some people in the models thread are mad,i dont understand the models but just go in there for a laugh and to be honest i get confused by it in there,some say loads of snow or cold and others saying the opposite,how can u say that if they are looking at the same thing? and dont they get quite serious in there ha ha. well my take on it from in there is this,mild and snow next week at mid day in kent and no snow down past m4 with loads in blackpool by 6 oclock on a week friday. some are guessing how far inland the snow will go and thats 10 days away lol. even when it starts snowing no one can say for deffs where and how much can they?right im going back in wish me luck.

[keithlucky]

The balance in the model output looks more inclined towards no real cold (nor blizzards) over the next week or so.

Certainly a rather chilly weekend coming up with frosty nights should we see clear skies, and hopefully some pleasant sunshine by day for a change!

Both ECM and GFS trending zonal out in FI next week, which suggests rain or showers at times, some wintriness possible over the hills behind cold fronts. No blizzards or even much in the way of any snow expected from me in the next 10 days I'm afraid. Any real cold confined to Eastern Europe.

Weather is about to change maybe as early as Tuesday we could see a front stall over central UK as it looks as if the easterly wind should start to dominate our weather for a while. With hopefully battle ground senario with fronts from the Swest hitting cold cold air sitting over the UK. Edited January 11, 2012 by keithlucky

[Snowmadsam]

In my opinion 12z wasn't very good today wonder what the ECM can do then?

Fingers crossed

[ourson]

As an occasional stalker of the model thread, it looks to me as if the mood is less conducive for cold weather in the reliable timeframe. Where's Andy music and his miraculous ramp when we need him??

[Cymro]

This morning they were all gloryfying cold now they are all downbeat because another run has come out and toppled and turned, for give me but I'm sure their all jackle and hyde, get a grip nefoedd wen!

Models change, things change it could be cold tbh there's a great chance or it could be cooler but one things certain there's a pattern change and the models apart from teh GFS seem to me to be struggling with it.

[J10]

One thing I am liking about the models atm is the consistency between each other and especially from run to run.

[keithlucky]

Watch the met outlook .gradually they changing it day by day to colder conditions .they unsure but they look like they leaning to the colder option.

[TonyH]

Weather is about to change maybe as early as Tuesday we could see a front stall over central UK as it looks as if the easterly wind should start to dominate our weather for a while. With hopefully battle ground senario with fronts from the Swest hitting cold cold air sitting over the UK.

Unfortunately for cold: cross model agreement for mild SW winds Keith- mid next week:

Even giving to the following weekend still nothing reliable showing for real cold:

ECM is currently the more favourable model for colder weather later next week, cool zonal from GFS, at present the 'rogue ' easterly runs have disappeared.

[J10]

Unfortunately for cold: cross model agreement for mild SW winds Keith- mid next week:

Even giving to the following weekend still nothing reliable showing for real cold:

ECM is currently the more favourable model for colder weather later next week, cool zonal from GFS, at present the 'rogue ' easterly runs have disappeared.

As recent models runs have shown nothing is certain in the models, even for next week. Another quite large switch around between the 00Ha and 12Hz, makes for a lot of uncertainty at the moment.

[TonyH]

Hmm it all looks ironed out as far as next Wednesday to me do you not think?

As for after that, indeed various options are still being played out.

[J10]

Hmm it all looks ironed out as far as next Wednesday to me do you not think?

As for after that, indeed various options are still being played out.

Next Wednesday is T+168, quite a long way away given current outputs, Clearly the basic pattern of a High Pressure bringing SE winds for the weekend is quite clear, but how long will that last, quite often longer than the models suggest, which may or may not be good for cold prospects.

Beyond that is anyone's guess.

[keithlucky]

I sure the charts acted the same way before Novembers cold spell last year .I think charts cant pinpoint weather outlook when patterns change from the normal S westerly direction . not so easy to predict weather from east .

[Cymro]

I tend to agree here with JACKONE, in terms of lowering ground temps this period of cold weather will certainly aid that, depends how stubborn the high is, remember models aren't the actual weather they are guidelines of what the weather could turn out.

[andymusic]

As an occasional stalker of the model thread, it looks to me as if the mood is less conducive for cold weather in the reliable timeframe. Where's Andy music and his miraculous ramp when we need him??

sorry in London again today - flippin busy life I lead - models still floppin about but edging towards a more cold result - I think we'll get there in the end and defo have the snow we are all looking for to confirm that indeed we did have a winter this year!

[keithlucky]

Is the wife auditioning for britain got talent Andy.

[andymusic]

Is the wife auditioning for britain got talent Andy.

nope - but nice guess

gonna feel flippin frosty sunday night into Monday - down to -4 - scrapers and de-icer at the ready - 1st time this winter!

Edited January 11, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

nope - but nice guess

gonna feel flippin frosty sunday night into Monday - down to -4 - scrapers and de-icer at the ready - 1st time this winter!

Agreed winter bites back .

[J10]

First frosty spell of the winter in Early- mid January does say something.

Agreed winter bites back .

I am expecting return of the Jedi in the models quite soon. :winky: