The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[LadyEv06]

MetO now showing light snow for 6am and 9am tomorrow morning for my area. Previously was sleet at 3am and light snow at 6am.

[Bolton67]

Northampton south enough but too far east I think. It's like last winter all over again!

Yep, The south of the region could be ok tonight, Brackley, Towcester. Just like last year.

[kmanmx]

Absolutely not. Can't handle another winter chock-full of model teases that end up near misses!!

Can us Leicester folk join you in this anger/dissapointment ? We were very dry too.

anybody watching www.raintoday.co.uk ?

Thats one heck of a lot of precipitation/snow.

Yes that is a lot of precipitation, but it doesn't just continue north. I think it does something like this...

Hope that makes sense.

Edited December 15, 2011 by kmanmx

[Hughsey]

Thought the snow risk had gone for me as Im far east of the Midlands but suprisingly the meto have upgraded my snow chances to sleet at 6 and snow at 9. I am very sceptical that I will actually see anything much tomorrow though.

Edited December 15, 2011 by hughsey

[Nick L]

BBC forecast put the line pretty much Birmingham southwards. Emphasising the possible disruption on the M4 and M40...I'm going to have a fun time getting home tomorrow rush hour!!

[kmanmx]

BBC forecast put the line pretty much Birmingham southwards. Emphasising the possible disruption on the M4 and M40...I'm going to have a fun time getting home tomorrow rush hour!!

Yeah that sounds about right, I have learnt over time If leicesters not right after the edge of snow the forecast is wrong

[locneverstop]

Hey guys.

Been a while since I've posted, but was thinking of the good old days of January 2010. Anyone remember that low pressure system that moved up from the south in the middle of the day and missed us by a mere 50 or so miles?

Then out of nowhere PPN developed over the top of Brum and started rotating for hours. I think Blizzards will remember this... I didn't live too far away from him and we got badly hit.

Good Times!

[Chunky Flake]

cannocks gonna get nothing somebody shoot me

[tom_f123]

Not liking how southerly and Easterly the track of the main bulk of precip is looking at the moment, anywhere North of Birmingham could struggle to see much.

[camperstron]

Not liking how southerly and Easterly the track of the main bulk of precip is looking at the moment, anywhere North of Birmingham could struggle to see much.

Ditto. Am in south brum and think it's quite possible that (a) the track is too southerly and (B) the mild uppers will make any precip fall as rain.

[mackerel sky]

This is the last major rain to snow event I remember here. Uppers were actually more marginal than tonight.

GFS

12z has uppers of -4C when the precipitation is set to arrive - in this event they were -2C!!!

http://www.wetterzen...00220090210.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120090210.gif

Looks similar to me.

Edited December 15, 2011 by mackerel sky

[Serendipity]

central news warned of possible snow but actually showed it as quite sleety round my area and didn't sound like they expected much in the way of settling unless you were higher. They said 2-4cm POSSIBLE on lower ground, 10cm POSSIBLE on higher ground so it will be interesting to see won't it?

[Costa Del Fal]

Just gone through the GFS Ensembles on Meteociel and most take the precip a bit further North than the Op. The Ensembles here at NW also show this with the Op having some of the lowest precip amounts with most other members having more.

Hey guys.

Been a while since I've posted, but was thinking of the good old days of January 2010. Anyone remember that low pressure system that moved up from the south in the middle of the day and missed us by a mere 50 or so miles?

Then out of nowhere PPN developed over the top of Brum and started rotating for hours. I think Blizzards will remember this... I didn't live too far away from him and we got badly hit.

Good Times!

Hi, Yes I remember that, a very snowy evening after a very snowy day!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just gone through the GFS Ensembles on Meteociel and most take the precip a bit further North than the Op. The Ensembles here at NW also show this with the Op having some of the lowest precip amounts with most other members having more.

whats your thoughts on weekend? looks like rain to me, thicknesses look crap, GFS does have snow streamer showing very early Sunday morning

[Cheshire Freeze]

whats your thoughts on weekend? looks like rain to me, thicknesses look crap, GFS does have snow streamer showing very early Sunday morning

Lol a blunt summary but IMO an accurate one. I don't know what is going wrong but the uppers just keep getting moderated time and time again with every run. Just 2 days ago it looked like a good NW'ly flow with -8/9 uppers and good thicknesses; now it's looking like -5 uppers for a far briefer time. Will struggle to get snow with that.

[Costa Del Fal]

whats your thoughts on weekend? looks like rain to me, thicknesses look crap, GFS does have snow streamer showing very early Sunday morning

Thicknesses look great!!! Down to 519 over the weekend which is very decent. That will certainly balance out any marginal uppers which dont took too bad either.

Looks like a brief band of rain,sleet or snow will push through tomorrow afternoon/evening. The winds look excellent for a Cheshire Gap streamer pretty much all weekend.

[locneverstop]

Hi, Yes I remember that, a very snowy evening after a very snowy day!

haha yes indeed! Driving up Quarry "Bonk" High street wasn't fun at all!

Anyways, been watching this system since it was the mother of all storms sometime last week. I think it's been said over and over again, but this will come down to what you see out of your window. The radar shows a lot of PPN, but as the weather is pretty much a classic definition of chaos theory, no model will ever tell you exactly what will happen. Maybe the cold will undercut and we'll all be buried, maybe we won't. Just enjoy it!

Eyes to the sky, and keep sharp objects locked away

[kmanmx]

Annoyingly they turn the street lights out here after about 4am which is when its set to start snowing. Am i really going to have to resort to strapping a torch to my head ? Looks that way.

[Costa Del Fal]

haha yes indeed! Driving up Quarry "Bonk" High street wasn't fun at all!

Anyways, been watching this system since it was the mother of all storms sometime last week. I think it's been said over and over again, but this will come down to what you see out of your window. The radar shows a lot of PPN, but as the weather is pretty much a classic definition of chaos theory, no model will ever tell you exactly what will happen. Maybe the cold will undercut and we'll all be buried, maybe we won't. Just enjoy it!

Eyes to the sky, and keep sharp objects locked away

Im very close to the high street. Very steep that and in snow it will be very ugly and tricky to drive. However Im sure its a prime gritting route.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Blizzards

[Fozfoster]

ITV weather looks good for snow for Warwickshire

[Polar Low]

Annoyingly they turn the street lights out here after about 4am which is when its set to start snowing. Am i really going to have to resort to strapping a torch to my head ? Looks that way.

That's ridiculous... 95% of the UK has had light sensitive street lights for at least 10 years.

[locneverstop]

Im very close to the high street. Very steep that and in snow it will be very ugly. However Im sure its a prime gritting route.

They gritted it that day too. Very different conditions I know, but it made no difference then! Would you believe it took the best part of 45 minutes to drive from the train station to Brierley Hill? Sadistically, I wish every winter was like the last two. There might be loads of disruption and chaos, but it was nice to see the Black Country streets deserted for a change!

And snowy....never forget the snow...

Edited December 15, 2011 by locneverstop

[Adzyy]

Going by the met office, major downgrade here. Now showing Heavy Rain at 12, then sleet at 3 till 9 and light snow at 9.

Losing the optimism, if I'm honest.

[Snowy Easterly]

BBC weather has snow barely scraping my area, At the beginning of the week the whole country was in for a storm and heavy rain, how fickle the weather is

[kmanmx]

That's ridiculous... 95% of the UK has had light sensitive street lights for at least 10 years.

Oh they are new streetlamps. But my council decided to save money by turning half of the ones on the sidestreet off at 1am, and then all of them off except 1 at each road corner by 3 or 4am. The main road through my village is fully lit for safety.

Edited December 15, 2011 by kmanmx