Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[shotski]

Mmmmmm how can two posts be so far apart, Looks to me like plenty of potential for snow on the models

[feb1991blizzard]

12Z showing high pressure to the south very much in control for the foreseeable with mild atlantic weather the norm for the next 10 days at least. To be honest I can't see a pattern change happening any time soon, any pattern change is always in FI. Time is running out for a cold spell now, from February at least in the southern half of the country it becomes much harder for snow to stay with the strengthening sun and longer days.

March maybe but surely not February!!! 1947, 1963 and 1991 and many more which i cant be bothered to dig out, the south got plastered.

Edited December 28, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Uncle_Barty]

12Z showing high pressure to the south very much in control for the foreseeable with mild atlantic weather the norm for the next 10 days at least. To be honest I can't see a pattern change happening any time soon, any pattern change is always in FI. Time is running out for a cold spell now, from February at least in the southern half of the country it becomes much harder for snow to stay with the strengthening sun and longer days.

Have you read the last couple of pages of this thread???

There are changes afoot.. what it will mean for us is too early to say but the models, while indicating a continuing zonal picture for the next few days at least, are also showing changes in the polar regions which IF they verify, will have a knock-on effect for us down the line.

To say time is running out, on the 28th December, is IMHO a ridiculous statement to make.

No wonder newer members of this board get confused at times...

Edited December 28, 2011 by Jim_AFCB

[Geordiesnow]

Mmmmmm how can two posts be so far apart, Looks to me like plenty of potential for snow on the models

Can't see that potential personally at the moment but I do see the models hinting at increased heights around Russia and the Laptev sea areas which seems to be getting everyone excited but at this moment in time, the models have not hint this too affect our weather in anyway regarding snow potential.

Suppose its better having some sort of height rises than none at all like in recent times but the Atlantic still looks strong enough to my eyes.

[Jason T]

12Z showing high pressure to the south very much in control for the foreseeable with mild atlantic weather the norm for the next 10 days at least. To be honest I can't see a pattern change happening any time soon, any pattern change is always in FI. Time is running out for a cold spell now, from February at least in the southern half of the country it becomes much harder for snow to stay with the strengthening sun and longer days.

ARE you mad or just playing the (FOOL). At long last subtle shanges are now appearing and continuing to have support. This is just going to get better and better IMO, What a way to start....Top game of poker chap's.

[shedhead]

Mmmmmm how can two posts be so far apart, Looks to me like plenty of potential for snow on the models

Simply because what you have seen represents both ends of the opinion spectum, but both have their merits. Without doubt there is cold potential in the outlooks (tho some will always go way OTT about it), but at the end of the day potential is all it is at this stage, with the reliable timeframe (often quoted as something not to look beyond when showing a cold senario) offering very little change to the recent synoptics. As ever you pays yer money and takes yer choice.

Edited December 28, 2011 by shedhead

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A strongly zonal run from the GFS, continuing the theme of well established low heights to the NW and +ve NAO.

I must admit i'm suprised at the upturn in mood this evening Ian,and for the life of me i cannot see the significant change in 12z ensembles,they look to be frank,zonal pretty much all the way?

UKMO looks slightly more amplified and there are hints of blocking over NW Russia stretching west but pretty much a million miles away in terms of affecting the UK.

Edited December 28, 2011 by happy days

[Stormyking]

12Z showing high pressure to the south very much in control for the foreseeable with mild atlantic weather the norm for the next 10 days at least. To be honest I can't see a pattern change happening any time soon, any pattern change is always in FI. Time is running out for a cold spell now, from February at least in the southern half of the country it becomes much harder for snow to stay with the strengthening sun and longer days.

How is it february is normally the main month I see snow fall :S Also March 2007 gave snow here on the IOW and so did April 2008.

Sorry for going off topic here mods, but need to get a point across.

In my opinion GFS is a slight improvement and think its going to start showing some proper changes soon.

[SMU]

I see your 480 thickness and raise to 474!

lol can you do the following 2 charts as above

12 jan 1987 I wonder If we will see 492 DAM in the SE

S

A strongly zonal run from the GFS, continuing the theme of well established low heights to the NW and +ve NAO.

If you live by the Sword you die by the sword AKA GFS OP

S

Edited December 28, 2011 by Steve Murr

[Derp Patrol]

Have you read the last couple of pages of this thread???

There are changes afoot.. what it will mean for us is too early to say but the models, while indicating a continuing zonal picture for the next few days at least, are also showing changes in the polar regions which IF they verify, will have a knock-on effect for us down the line.

To say time is running out, on the 28th December, is IMHO a ridiculous statement to make.

Any changes will not take effect for at least 2 weeks, taking us to the middle of January. Even if we do get a colder spell it will take something special to make it as good as 2010 or other good Januarys.

It isn't really that ridiculous a reply for my area. Yes for northern areas anything is possible for a while yet, but after early February we rarely see potent cold snaps down here lasting more than a day or two.

Also just to clarify on my earlier post - the models are showing mild weather for the foreseeable. Too many people here are placing their bets on FI and the CFS which will of course throw up dream charts for cold lovers but are not realistic or accurate.

[shotski]

Is there ? Are you sure you are not allowing yourself to be misled by people making assumptions from teleconection changes that have not actually happened yet ?

Best to concentrate on a pretty entrenched general NH profile and how hard that can be to shift.

Ecm T 216 & 240 Look a decent shout to me for some of the white stuff, prolonged cold maybe not.

[Beasterly]

In GFS 12Z, the cooler trend continues. Despite Op being mild yet again, it meets the GEFS mean at the very end which is nudging -5 850hPa temperature. Some cold runs popping up at the end too.

[jpwild]

What would be defined as 'prolong cold'? -1 or -10 temps at ground level? Very confusing as it depends on peoples definations.

Looks like it will get colder and snowier. Question is by how much. Saying things like no 'prolong cold' isn't really being helpful or informative or specific.

Edited December 28, 2011 by jpwild

[shedhead]

Any changes will not take effect for at least 2 weeks, taking us to the middle of January. Even if we do get a colder spell it will take something special to make it as good as 2010 or other good Januarys.

It isn't really that ridiculous a reply for my area. Yes for northern areas anything is possible for a while yet, but after early February we rarely see potent cold snaps down here lasting more than a day or two.

Also just to clarify on my earlier post - the models are showing mild weather for the foreseeable. Too many people here are placing their bets on FI and the CFS which will of course throw up dream charts for cold lovers but are not realistic or accurate.

Feb can produce some bitter weather in an Easterly Rob and your part of the world could well be one of the coldest in the country IF it were to happen. That said, I do agree that the posting of cold FI and CFS charts can be rather misleading, there's no doubt they offer potential, but you can't skate on a pond or build a snowman with potential - tho you wouldn't think so reading some posts on here....

Edited December 28, 2011 by shedhead

[Geordiesnow]

I must admit i'm suprised at the upturn in mood this evening Ian,and for the life of me i cannot see the significant change in 12z ensembles,they look to be frank,zonal pretty much all the way?

UKMO looks slightly more amplified and there are hints of blocking over NW Russia stretching west but pretty much a million miles away in terms of affecting the UK.

I assume thats why people are encouraged what they are seeing in the output because there does appear to be a pattern change to our North with increased heights as its been low pressure dominated in the last week or so and whilst thats encouraging it does not gurantee a cold/snowy spell as the models are currently showing.

That said, the output can and will change so I guess its keeping us on our toes at least if nothing else.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/run/JN192-21.GIF?28-12

JMA getting colder & Colder- with a surface high developing over the pole-

That next system off the states will feed under the low as a slider-

steve

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Why are peeps posting the 12zensembles as some sort of justification for longer term cold?

The ensembles are zonal and show nothing in the way of cold whatsoever.(Apart from 1or 2 rogue outliers in FI)

[Duane S.]

Any changes will not take effect for at least 2 weeks, taking us to the middle of January. Even if we do get a colder spell it will take something special to make it as good as 2010 or other good Januarys.

It isn't really that ridiculous a reply for my area. Yes for northern areas anything is possible for a while yet, but after early February we rarely see potent cold snaps down here lasting more than a day or two.

Also just to clarify on my earlier post - the models are showing mild weather for the foreseeable. Too many people here are placing their bets on FI and the CFS which will of course throw up dream charts for cold lovers but are not realistic or accurate.

Yes it was ridiculous. I can accept that you maybe can't see the potential in the charts but to write off winter in December is, well, ridiculous. Plus would you like to tot up the people using the CFS or FI as sole indicators? Not too many. The only people who should be disappointed should be those who only look at the GFS charts and take them purely at face value. I'd like to think a high percentage of people that frequent this forum, even if they don't have that much understanding of how to read the charts, can at least spot the trend for colder weather ahead.

The old chestnut of cold is always deep FI but never gets any closer will be wheeled out countless times in the next week or so. This is because the trend to cold will inevitably involve FI charts that are too progressive BUT could not have possibly shown up EVEN IN FI with November/early-mid December synoptics in place. Therefore it will APPEAR it is never getting closer but it is.

Another move closer from the GFS, it loses itself early on IMO, better signs though. AND it's only a matter of time beforeone of those colder members become the OP and then watch what happens on here!

[shedhead]

Why are peeps posting the 12zensembles as some sort of justification for longer term cold?

The ensembles are zonal and show nothing in the way of cold whatsoever.(Apart from 1or 2 rogue outliers in FI)

Probably the same reason they are posting the hitherto highly respected JMA....

[Summer Sun]

A nasty storm showing on ECM tonight

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[Uncle_Barty]

Any changes will not take effect for at least 2 weeks, taking us to the middle of January. Even if we do get a colder spell it will take something special to make it as good as 2010 or other good Januarys.

It isn't really that ridiculous a reply for my area. Yes for northern areas anything is possible for a while yet, but after early February we rarely see potent cold snaps down here lasting more than a day or two.

Also just to clarify on my earlier post - the models are showing mild weather for the foreseeable. Too many people here are placing their bets on FI and the CFS which will of course throw up dream charts for cold lovers but are not realistic or accurate.

AS I have mentioned before, no point in looking beyond 8 days or so for the weather pattern around our parts. Because of the upstream changes already having an effect on the model output, just because it is looking zonal for, say, 8th January now, does not necessarily mean that it will still be looking zonal by the 3rd of Jan, i.e. 5 days ahead.

The model output is likely to change - to exactly what, who knows.

I certainly will not write off the next 2 weeks as mild and zonal (much as I would like it to be!), for the reasons above.

[john mac]

Any changes will not take effect for at least 2 weeks, taking us to the middle of January. Even if we do get a colder spell it will take something special to make it as good as 2010 or other good Januarys.

It isn't really that ridiculous a reply for my area. Yes for northern areas anything is possible for a while yet, but after early February we rarely see potent cold snaps down here lasting more than a day or two.

Also just to clarify on my earlier post - the models are showing mild weather for the foreseeable. Too many people here are placing their bets on FI and the CFS which will of course throw up dream charts for cold lovers but are not realistic or accurate.

Sorry mate but i think you need to get some pointers from nick sussex and steve murr, they have been on this website for years and will be able to help you. No one is saying that what is shown in FI is going to happen. Just that there is a trend towards a pattern change. Which incidently would go along pretty well with GP's winter forcast.

[Cloud 10]

lol can you do the following 2 charts as above

12 jan 1987 I wonder If we will see 492 DAM in the SE

S

No advance on 474.

Meteociel - Archives des analyses NCEP de 1871 à aujourd'hui

Meteociel - Archives des analyses NCEP de 1871 à aujourd'hui

13th jan 1987 lower dam than 12th.

Meteociel - Archives des analyses NCEP de 1871 à aujourd'hui

[Duane S.]

Why are peeps posting the 12zensembles as some sort of justification for longer term cold?

The ensembles are zonal and show nothing in the way of cold whatsoever.(Apart from 1or 2 rogue outliers in FI)

If you want to ignore the trend HD then fine but FI is not some sort of random chart generator (although it may appear that way at times).

FI should be binned for detail but it has been shown time andtime again that its strength is in picking out trends and that is exactly what it has just started to do.

[Paul White.]

Probably the same reason they are posting the hitherto highly respected JMA....

And of course it would be pure nonsense to post a chart in the model output thread.