Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan

[Zakos]

ensembles are awsesome.is this the path we are looking for,gfs 18z is a 100 percent a outlier.no way can it fit in to those emsembles,the operational has zero support.surely one for the shredder.now after me taking a deep breath.we need to see where ukmo treads in the morning.

yes, there is often disagreement as to what makes a true outlier, as some argue "its only the milder of the pack"

well, the gfs op is an outlier if ever there was one, with zero support from any ensemble members, or other models.

I think the cold is pretty much nailed, now we need the snow.

December 2010 saw very little snow for my area, atrocious seeing as the rest of the country was covered in it.

My area, invariably, does better for snow from Easterlies/North-easterlies than Northerlies. So I am really looking forward to this.

[PolarWarsaw]

Marginally more cold air to the North and East t78, PV slightly smaller and less intense, but otherwise its as you were to the 18z.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Marginally more cold air to the North and East t78, PV slightly smaller and less intense, but otherwise its as you were to the 18z.

A bit better than the 18z but its still flat as a butchers at 78hrs.

No way its going to be like 90% of the 18zensembles.

Its becoming a bit tiresome now it will probably be another outlier.

[Snowy Easterly]

A bit better than the 18z but its still flat as a butchers at 78hrs.

No way its going to be like 90% of the 18zensembles.

Its becoming a bit tiresome now it will probably be another outlier.

could the OP somehow be right and all the ensembles wrong, the 00z is not like 18z ensembles,

[PolarWarsaw]

Wouldnt be surprised to see something from the north later in the run, differences at t132.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

could the OP somehow be right and all the ensembles wrong, the 00z is not like 18z ensembles,

yes of course that could be the case,its a classic 24 hour toppler 0z gfs.

I think my comments about it being an outlier is just born out of shear frustration with this model in particular.

Wouldnt be surprised to see something from the north later in the run, differences at t132.

Doubtful the jet is riding over the top of the azores high.

Poor gfs operational are we ever going to see something decent from it?

Over to ukmo in 5 mins i'll wait for that to come out now and hope for the best.

[Snowy Easterly]

GFS just loves its strong jet and raging zonailty

[PolarWarsaw]

GFS continues its obsession with zonality. Very poor run.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO looks more like it though.

I'm really not very good at reading meteociel but i would imagine there is more potential in ukmo than gfs so we'll leave it to the experts when they wake from their slumber.

[Snowy Easterly]

UKMO is not like the GFS 18z ensembles as well, were we just led up the garden path again ?

UKMO looks more like it though.

I'm really not very good at reading meteociel but i would imagine there is more potential in ukmo than gfs so we'll leave it to the experts when they wake from their slumber.

im not sure what would happen after T144 on the UKMO

[cheshire snow]

If the GFS ever gives us a stella run what is the betting its a cold outlier

i use to really respect the GFS but IMO it has performed really poorly,that said it

could be 100% correct and by 0800 today we could be back to where we were yesterday

morning

Edit why am i up at 0435 LOL

C.S

[PolarWarsaw]

Hmmm. The 18z is notorious for being the 'pub run' so anything that gives us shouldnt be taken seriously. The UKMO looks like yesterdays 12z, if only the pesky azores would bog off about a 1000 miles west. Very uninspiring so far from the 0z, will the ECM inspire? Hmmm.

[Snowy Easterly]

If the GFS ever gives us a stella run what is the betting its a cold outlier

i use to really respect the GFS but IMO it has performed really poorly,that said it

could be 100% correct and by 0800 today we could be back to where we were yesterday

morning

Edit why am i up at 0435 LOL

C.S

Because we are crazy and we put ourselves through this torture and probably get no reward for it.

GFS in FI is yet another rubbish toppler

[PolarWarsaw]

What time are the ENS out? Might cling on if its not too long.

[Snowy Easterly]

What time are the ENS out? Might cling on if its not too long.

they are out between 5 and 5 30 i bet they have flipped to what the OP is showing, rubbish

Oh dear even NOGAPS has lost the Greenland high now

Edited January 16, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[PolarWarsaw]

GEM has the azores high further east at t120 also

This is NOT a good start to the day so far. Something good needed from the ECM.

[Snowy Easterly]

yep a bad set of runs so far, as i said we were probably led up the garden path again last night, now we need the ECM to pull a rabbit out of the hat

[chiller]

Hi folks, I mean this with the best will in the world but hanging on to each and every run will only lead to unnecessary stress levels. I had a suspicion that there would be wrist slashing come the mornings runs after last nights promising output. Things will change without doubt and I feel around the 20th of Jan we should see a start of something colder. No doubt later today we will see some stunning runs or maybe we will have to wait till tomorrow but things as we know will change. I have been finding its best keep an eye over 1 output every 24 hrs. But hey I'm just as desperate for a decent cold shot as the rest! Fingers crossed the ECM delivers!

[Rocheydub]

Out to 144 now and it would appear to show the mid Atlantic wanting to push into Greenland more progressive than the 12z run... Early doors yet though, not toomuch shifting from the Russian HP mind!

(edit: pv knocks the encroaching HP for 6 as before... FI currently at 96 hrs for me too, no real agreement between ECM and GFS after that point)

I was hoping to have all this resolved today!!!

Edited January 16, 2012 by Rocheydub

[SP1986]

If the GFS is so poor, why aren't we currently basking in an easterly? As I recall the ECM initially modelled an easterly for this period, but the GFS didn't and we're looking at a milder few days, with a short Atlantic oriented comeback in the next 2 days. If it was up to the ECM we would be plunged straight into an easterly after this high pressure period. That's why I'm very cautious about suggesting the GFS operational runs should be binned.

On the other hand, this has been playing out for over a week now, and well we haven't even found a solution in the mid-term (7-10 days), so it's all up in the air at the moment

[IDO]

We had one GFS run out of 20 giving a colder outlook but with little potential for snow (12z) and ECM coming up with another outlandish run promising all sorts of cold (12z), when it had been progressively downgrading the cold outbreak. Suddenly with no continuity the majority of posters were saying we were in the fridge, etc, etc. now I have no idea whether ECM is right but surely we needed a day of runs that sustained this pattern before we uncorked the Champagne? Again any viewer looking at this site has possibly been led up the garden path; not by the models but by experienced members!

Even though the flat zonal/HP outcome of GFS is the likely outcome I am not going to throw my hat in the ring till next weekend, when I will look out the window and get my own conclusion.

[The PIT]

Blimey people stayed up all night for severe cold which wasn't there in the first place. :80:

pretty good agreement between the two main models again. Brief cold spell this weekend slight figit between the two as we head towards deep fi due to a short wave feature before agreeing again at T192 and a possible return to a more zonal flow.

Off too work now.

[winterof79]

GFS OP as early as the 21st takes a different route to the other members http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

At 240 GFS is nothing like the ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

But both showing the demise of the vortex.

Edited January 16, 2012 by winterof79

[Rocheydub]

Blimey people stayed up all night for severe cold which wasn't there in the first place. :80:

pretty good agreement between the two main models again. Brief cold spell this weekend slight figit between the two as we head towards deep fi due to a short wave feature before agreeing again at T192 and a possible return to a more zonal flow.

Off too work now.

No, some of us work nights!!!

And I suggest you look again. A slight digit as we head to deep FI? There is a world of difference between the 120 charts ECM and GFS! And you should know well that this can/usually does effect future patterns.

This place works great without the personal attacks pit!

PS. Posting from phone so cannot show charts to prove my point

Edited January 16, 2012 by Rocheydub

[SLEETY]

Lots of uncertainty in the model output again.Massive differences between ukmet and ecm at t+144.Going to be a fun week watching to see what unfolds.

However it looks like very cold air won't be very far away from the UK by the end of the week.

Edited January 16, 2012 by SLEETY