Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan

[bluearmy]

According to the ens, a 30 to 45% chance of snowfall in London 22/23rd. the op a huge outlier. Plenty of easterlys in fi.

[kold weather]

It really is a mystery! Thats a big swing in the GEFS ensembles today, shame the GFS didn't pull one of those out to deliver this evening rather than that tosh we were all subjected to!

Pretty much all but one or two runs are very good tonight on the ensembles, most are much better then the ECM op run as well. Gosh i've not a clue where that set of ensembles have come from, they've totally come out of nowhere!

Some of the runs usher in quite a prolonged and probably very cold cold spell...

[damianslaw]

Last post from me today. Sort of wish GFS only updated daily, its credibility at the moment is seriously being questioned. It performs well in zonal conditions but whenever blocking comes on the scene it just seems to struggle and just presses the default zonal button.

The idea of the azores high ridging NE towards britain goes against the teleconnections, 500 mb flow, strat forecasting.. I'm expecting another major backtrack in its next run - but nothing unusual here. However, it continues to suggest those heights over NW Russia will eventually come into play later in the month.

I'm firmly with ECM and UKMO at the moment.

FAX chart shows sub 528 dam air over most of the country by Friday - true arctic air enveloping the country increasing the risk of snowfall especially for the north.

[john mac]

Pretty much all but one or two runs are very good tonight on the ensembles, most are much better then the ECM op run as well. Gosh i've not a clue where that set of ensembles have come from, they've totally come out of nowhere!

Some of the runs usher in quite a prolonged and probably very cold cold spell...

It just goes to show how fickle the models can be. For me i have been pretty confident of a decent cold spellbecause the one thing that has been consisant in this saga is GP's posts and forcasting. He has consistantly stuck to his guns and for this he should be commended. IMO we will be waking up to some lovely charts in the morning.

[phil nw.]

Yes the 18Z FS ENs Graph is quite cold and the 3 runs today 06,12 and 18Z have all got colder-- here,

The Op run very much on the mild side in mid run.Some really cold ones in there.

Coldest i have seen by GFS for a good while.

Edited January 15, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[cold snap]

Yep one for Steve M.

The mean is even more impressive considering it is the mean.

The 18Z GEFS ensembles have flipped towards what the ECM was showing a few days ago i.e NE,E,lys.

love your posts just wondering there will we get universal agrement in the morning.you would think the time may be right now,the ensembles are the closest ive seen to the ecm,surely the gfs will fall into line tommorow.the control run is simply awesome,now if we do get agreement tommorow.that not to say its right.just agreement between the models

[cold snap]

Yep one for Steve M.

The mean is even more impressive considering it is the mean.

The 18Z GEFS ensembles have flipped towards what the ECM was showing a few days ago i.e NE,E,lys.

love your posts just wondering there will we get universal agrement in the morning.you would think the time may be right now,the ensembles are the closest ive seen to the ecm,surely the gfs will fall into line tommorow.the control run is simply awesome,now if we do get agreement tommorow.that not to say its right.just agreement between the models

[swilliam]

Yes the 18Z FS ENs Graph is quite cold and the 3 runs today 06,12 and 18Z have all got colder-- here,

The Op run very much on the mild side in mid run.Some really cold ones in there.

Coldest i have seen by GFS for a good while.

You can see actually that it is at the top (mildest) on all the runs - the 18Z being the worst though as it is a long way from the mean.

[Andy_]

Don't you just love it when everything seems to be falling into place? If only the models were constant more than fickle for us all of the time!

Even the infamous appears CFS seems to be on our side!

That whole run is astonishing to say the least, i suggest you take a look, even for just a laugh!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=354&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

Edited January 15, 2012 by Andy163

[Cloud 10]

"Model Wars-The Easterly Strikes Back" !!!

Interesting times ahead

[danm]

Stunning GFS ensembles. What a turnaround! Hopefully the GFS has now caught onto a strong signal for a significant cold spell, and hopefully tomorrow morning's GFS OP run will show this.

Edited January 15, 2012 by danm

[phil nw.]

You can see actually that it is at the top (mildest) on all the runs - the 18Z being the worst though as it is a long way from the mean.

Yes it seems just lately a lot of the GFS Op runs tend to be on the milder side of the Ens.

Overall though a definite move back to cold since the 00z outputs and this time the change to lower temps. is only 4 days away so a few positives tonight if you are a cold lover.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Is there any possibility that someone can post the link to the controle run pls for me , so i can a proper look , also where would i go to look at these in future rather having to pester everone?!

[feb1991blizzard]

WOW! WOW! WOW!!!!

Just looked at the Manchester ensembles in graph form, i dont like to read too much into the odd favourable member being posted on here unless i can be bothered to go through the whole suite, so i generally go by the graph, but this really is one to get excited about, not just as a cold fan but even as a model observer, there were signs of a slight shift in the 12z suite, but 18z suite is the biggest shift i have ever seen in the reliable timeframe, Steve says something like 30-40% for an easterly, but something like 60% for -6c 850 hpa for any length of time, so to my mind thats 60% for a reasonably cold spell of weather if your not bothered which direction it comes from.

Edited January 16, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[john mac]

Stunning GFS ensembles. What a turnaround! Hopefully the GFS has now caught onto a strong signal for a significant cold spell, and hopefully tomorrow morning's GFS OP run will show this.

Yes mate, its quite incredible how it can just flip over and latch onto something else. IMO we will be looking at a much better GFS in the morning. Snow showers could be into the uk by friday afternoon.

[Zakos]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Speechless. I think now is the time for coldies to get their hopes up!

We have gone for searching for the mean to go slightly below the average in FI, to the mean going below significantly and continuously below average for the entire run!

Ill say it again, well done to Net weather and of course GP for forecasting the mid jan pattern change. Amazingly accurate with the timing. Net weather have surpassed all other forecasting sites IMO.

[Cloud 10]

Is there any possibility that someone can post the link to the controle run pls for me , so i can a proper look , also where would i go to look at these in future rather having to pester everone?!

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

"Model Wars-The Easterly Strikes Back" !!!

Interesting times ahead

OMG OMG what a set of ensembles from GFS !!

BUT this model is so volatile i still cant be confident even at that midrange!

[snowlover2009]

Wow, I think if the Op hadn't beena whopping outlier, 4 days later than today(yes you heard that right) the mean would have been even lower. What a massive turn around. This is great news!!!! The mean doesn't go above -5 I think!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

Many thanks

[snowlover2009]

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png Speechless. I think now is the time for coldies to get their hopes up!

We have gone for searching for the mean to go slightly below the average in FI, to the mean going below significantly and continuously below average for the entire run!

Ill say it again, well done to Net weather and of course GP for forecasting the mid jan pattern change. Amazingly accurate with the timing. Net weather have surpassed all other forecasting sites IMO.

Unbelievable. I think tomorrow could have an even bigger surprise, if this is the first trend from the gfs, then there is going to be even more surprises in the ensembles I bet.

[PolarWarsaw]

Can I just ask as a complete model novice, bar the absolute minimum basics. Whats the different between the actual run? The OP and the control run? What defines the data etc, why have 3 different versions of 1 run.

EDIT:

Here you go Rudders:

http://forum.netweat...weather-guides/

Edited January 16, 2012 by shuggee
To save an off-topic reply

[cold snap]

Unbelievable. I think tomorrow could have an even bigger surprise, if this is the first trend from the gfs, then there is going to be even more surprises in the ensembles I bet.

ensembles are awsesome.is this the path we are looking for,gfs 18z is a 100 percent a outlier.no way can it fit in to those emsembles,the operational has zero support.surely one for the shredder.now after me taking a deep breath.we need to see where ukmo treads in the morning.

[davehsug]

Can I just ask as a complete model novice, bar the absolute minimum basics. Whats the different between the actual run? The OP and the control run? What defines the data etc, why have 3 different versions of 1 run.

Here you go Rudders:

http://forum.netweat...weather-guides/

The op is the actual run. It is run at a higher resolution from the start, reverting after t192 (I think). All the other ensemble members are run with slightly different start data to try to emulate possible errors. The control run is started with the same data as the op, but run at a lower resolution throughout.

[snowlover2009]

ensembles are awsesome.is this the path we are looking for,gfs 18z is a 100 percent a outlier.no way can it fit in to those emsembles,the operational has zero support.surely one for the shredder.now after me taking a deep breath.we need to see where ukmo treads in the morning.

Well none of the other models follow gfs and even the ecm ensembles don't go off a tangent so early like the OP. It really is out on a limb. If all the models back track and follow the 18z OP run, then this would be the biggest U turn the models have ever done.