Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS 12z is complete, heart-breaking disaster!!!!!

The Scandi Hi looks like it's not going to work, please can we have a Greenie Hi.

[Ruzzi]

I'm going to be in Kincardine until Friday. Obviously Kincardine is right on the banks of the Forth so I just wondered what people think about the prospects of any streamers coming off the forth and affecting Kincardine, alloa etc as the easterly flows kicks in properly through the week.

[A Winter's Tale]

I'm going to be in Kincardine until Friday. Obviously Kincardine is right on the banks of the Forth so I just wondered what people think about the prospects of any streamers coming off the forth and affecting Kincardine, alloa etc as the easterly flows kicks in properly through the week.

No streamers at all. Mild SWlys before the weekend and if there is an easterly, all the snow would be further south.

If GFS 18z is the same than GFS 12z, this would have to go down as one of the greatest model let-downs of all time.

[thebigyin]

Showers died back for the moment but still cloudy and breezy. Around 3C now and dew point dropped back. I think now cold enough for wintry stuff, just need the showers back!

Reading some of the model threads it is a bit of a rollercoaster of emotions. i think compared to what we have had regardless of the way it turns out it has been and will be interesting watching.

[BleakMidwinter]

It's only one run!

you ALWAYS tell us not to count on only one run!

When does the 18z become available?

BleakMidwinter (holding back the tears - it can't be gone, it can't be...!)

[A Winter's Tale]

It's only one run!

you ALWAYS tell us not to count on only one run!

When does the 18z become available?

BleakMidwinter (holding back the tears - it can't be gone, it can't be...!)

Hopefully it's in a league of it's own but I can't help but feel a little bit alarmed by the GFS 12z.

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO isn't great either. Ach well, signal for retrogression to Greenland remains, and all we need is a bit more energy going under the block at +96 to keep it up. It just shows how this situation is on a knife edge really. Anyway, let's just focus on the mesoscale stuff and worry about what happens later when it comes. The potential up to +96 is quite good, it's just after this that it may all go pear shaped for a bit

[A Winter's Tale]

UKMO is even worse! Hopefully it will be wrong!

But no need to get too carried away yet as in the reliable time frame an easterly flow is being established and anything could follow it.

[A Winter's Tale]

I think we need GP, TWS or Jackone to come to the rescue.

Gosh, just imagine what GP is thinking.

I created a blog about the cold snap as I felt convinced that it would last into next week with potent cold in the second half and perhaps lasting longer.

[BleakMidwinter]

So....

We may or may not have forty tons of snow in the next week to ten days.

The rest of the island may or may not have (our) forty tons fo snow in the next week to ten days.

We will have continuing cold weather, getting markedly colder in the next five to seven days.

Right?

So at the worst, we still get some proper cold. Which is good, what with all the speed-knitting I've done today :-)

And we'll just have to hope the 12z are anomalous. Right?

[A Winter's Tale]

The models:

One run, we have classic charts at such a close range with real consistency to one of the worst possible outcomes.

To me this like.....:

Scotland are about to qualify for the World Cup, we've been so comfertable throughout the game, but suddenly in the last minute the opposing side get a penalty and knock us out.

[A Winter's Tale]

So....

We may or may not have forty tons of snow in the next week to ten days.

The rest of the island may or may not have (our) forty tons fo snow in the next week to ten days.

We will have continuing cold weather, getting markedly colder in the next five to seven days.

Right?

So at the worst, we still get some proper cold. Which is good, what with all the speed-knitting I've done today :-)

And we'll just have to hope the 12z are anomalous. Right?

Yeah, I think we've got to accept that beyond 72 hrs is nonsense. And we have to be pleased that we've got cold enough uppers for snow, and a potential nowcasting scenario in the coming days so we may see some snow from this easterly so there's still some hope. And with a Scandi Hi in place and an easterly, surely what would follow would be on the same lines. And honestly, I don't see the block being blasted away so easlily.

So, take the positive that in the reliabe there's potential with an easterly and as we get closer to mid next week, we may find out that the period following this initial potential might be good.

Lorenzo, are you still confident about the Jet going on it's holidays and for blocking to still be in place through February.

[BleakMidwinter]

Scotland are about to qualify for the World Cup, we've been so comfertable throughout the game, but suddenly in the last minute the opposing side get a penalty and knock us out.

so.... just exactly like normal, then?

[over_the_rainbow]

Oh dear....not much to say except - poop. Would have thought it was a GFS wobble, but with UKMO on board it's very concerning.

[LomondSnowstorm]

In all fairness, we had cross model agreement for the easterly, with all models shoving energy under the block, just this morning. Yesterday night the GFS and ECM were agreed that -18C uppers were going to move into the southeast of England. It's pretty concerning I'd say but not exactly fatal yet.

[Ruzzi]

No streamers at all. Mild SWlys before the weekend and if there is an easterly, all the snow would be further south.

If GFS 18z is the same than GFS 12z, this would have to go down as one of the greatest model let-downs of all time.

That's a bit extreme after just one run! I very much doubt we'll be seeing mild SWlys BEFORE the weekend. Yes ok it might not be a full-blown Ely either but I would suggest that if things do go t**s up then we will be left somewhere in no-mans land. I honestly cannot envisage the Atlantic powering through that block so easily considering the size and strength of it. Anyway we have established that we will see an easterly flow at least for the early part of the week so with the forth Estuary providing a large surface area of water and with uppers of -10C on our shores,

is there no chance of streamers at all in this flow for the area that I've highlighted below??

[A Winter's Tale]

The Models in the Past 24 hrs summed up:

Before Today's GFS 12Z

After Today's 12z

Let's hope that the up and coming ECM run starts the party again!

[snow1975]

Today's 12Z is a let down. The 12Z a few days ago was exciting.

[LomondSnowstorm]

That's a bit extreme after just one run! I very much doubt we'll be seeing mild SWlys BEFORE the weekend. Yes ok it might not be a full-blown Ely either but I would suggest that if things do go t**s up then we will be left somewhere in no-mans land. I honestly cannot envisage the Atlantic powering through that block so easily considering the size and strength of it. Anyway we have established that we will see an easterly flow at least for the early part of the week so with the forth Estuary providing a large surface area of water and with uppers of -10C on our shores,

is there no chance of streamers at all in this flow for the area that I've highlighted below??

Yes, there is indeed a chance. The flow in the shortish term looks slightly stronger and the NAE has -10C uppers around tomorrow and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the really cold uppers approach http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120129/12/84/h850t850eu.png but after that who knows. I strongly suspect that even if the easterly flow is cut off there will be either a few days of dry cold or a major breakdown snowfall with the potential for heights to the north to remain.

[over_the_rainbow]

Who is the guy doing the Dad Dance, Campsie?

[Dreamnine]

So a 'cool' few days then back to the zonal SW'erlys.. suits me.

Edited January 29, 2012 by Dreamnine

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Is this the model thread?

[A Winter's Tale]

Who is the guy doing the Dad Dance, Campsie?

Ahah, I borrowed it from a post in the Model Banter Thread!

Yes, there is indeed a chance. The flow in the shortish term looks slightly stronger and the NAE has -10C uppers around tomorrow and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the really cold uppers approach http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png but after that who knows. I strongly suspect that even if the easterly flow is cut off there will be either a few days of dry cold or a major breakdown snowfall with the potential for heights to the north to remain.

-10c uppers, decent flow, I hope that there's a forth-clyde streamer but really I would settle for some snow showers.

Some posts in the model thread are saying that a milder spell could be followed by more blocking over Scandi/Greenland with a warming stratsosphere. So the Atlantic dominance may not be around for long.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Is this the model thread?

Unfortunately seems to be at the moment.

A few spots appearing on the radar nearby but doesn't appear to be anything outside. Anything with anyone else? Looks like some hefty showers packing into Angus and Dundee at the moment as well as *cough cough* the eastern borders.

[A Winter's Tale]

Read a few encouraging posts in the model thread:

JP1972 -

And December 2010 proved (model wise) that a breakdown might not happen as I seem to remember breakdowns being modelled only nearer the time not happen at all.

That's not to say of course that the current cold spell might not end at the end of the week as cuurently being shown.

Just when I started to think I could get of the rollercoaster the models teach me otherwise

Tim Bland -

This is exactly what the Meto are thinking in their outlook. A milder spell with a period of snow then the block sets up again. Either way with a weaker PV, a warming stratosphere and more high pressure around to our north, the Atlantic will not win for long.

winter watcher

Why don't we all take a step back and look at the bigger picture before you all loose your heads.

1.) We have our very own experts on net weather ( GP. Chino. Fred. Roger. ) all calling for a lengthy cold spell that will gradually worsen as we move through into next weekend. - GP has been spot on with his winter LRF so far and i do not expect him to fall at the final hurdle with it. He has called the strat warming perfectly as well as maintaining his forecast when the models looked bleak. Also just to add that we know models do not handle easterly's let alone strat warming very well at all.

2.) THE BIG POINT TO REMEMBER - We are seeing a continuing upgrades within the reliable time frame which is +72 at the most at this present time. As TEITS keeps mentioning re the block being modeled further and further west. My main point here is people are very quick to call the end to a cold spell but lets all remember one thing in this type of situation is that FI starts at +72 and beyond that is likely and most probably will change and at the moment the trend is very good up to the +72 RELIABLE TIME FRAME.

no balls like snow ball -

To put all the current hullabaloo into perspective, the UKMO 12z of yesterday showed the high sinking, the UKMO 00z didn't show the high sinking, the 12z UKMO today shows the high sinking. It doesn't take rocket science to figure out that currently the outcome for the end of the week is unknown. If the high sinking scenario is still shown at T72 then by all means have a tantrum.

Freezing-Point -

The GFS 12z shows the atlantic pushing back the block to leave us in mild air. Note that but the block is not beaten, as it keeps cold air across scandinavia and then starts to build again and push back west.

This is a monster subborn high and I think the GFS has underestimated its resistance and overdone the energy from the Atlantic. I still think we are in for a significant cold spell.