Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[Sunny Leith]

Ha ! ... thanks LS I stand corrected. Interesting week ahead !

http://expert-images...013012_2818.gif

[snowy owl]

-9 uppers by Monday now that is impressive!

Still v much of interest- looks like we'll all be gluedto the radar!

PS i do count my chickens every day!!(hence my piccie)

Edited January 28, 2012 by snowy owl

[edo]

http://expert-images...013012_2818.gif

holy moly -9 uppers by Monday RAMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMP

[Sunny Leith]

Aye good to be back Lorenzo. The first hint of serious winter and I sneak in the forum back door ... I'm just a glory hunter !

Moscow anomaly is off to Japan

Another stunning 18z. Fast running out of superlatives for this weekend model watching. Unreal and on the verge of record breaking. Good to see you by-tor..fine charts indeed ! Click the save button folks

[Cheggers]

BM, think you'll be needing another layer or 3. ;-p

Edited January 28, 2012 by Cheggers

[abrown0007]

Ho Folks

Been a member here for over a year now and enjoy watching the Scottish thread. I agree with the others that this is better than the authorities forecasts but the problem I have is the experts here in the thread have so much knowledge that when they speak it would be like me standing in the middle of a group of Chinese people speaking in their native language and me standing going thats amazing but what are they saying. I live just outside Aberdeen and am really missing the snow like the rest of you so in lay mans language do I have any real chance of seeing snow from this debate that is currently going on.

Thanks Guys

[lorenzo]

Am waiting to see these GEFS Perturbations, just for the hell of it !

[lorenzo]

Welcome to the Kilted thread 007 you have a good chance in the very not too distant future...

As for the gobbledigook we sometimes come out with please ask either on the thread or by PM, anyone here will happily answer or point you to a good resource to find out more, everyone on here is learning all the time

[A Winter's Tale]

First continental airflow - just a bit SE then bingo!

The easterly arrives - Isobars too far apart for my liking

-10C uppers arrive

Very cold and decent Scandi Hi still in place. From here anything could happen, potentially the isobars will eventually get closer together.

Snow event of the century?

Scandi Hi still in place

High pressure in Atlantic and Scandinavia - potential for an easterly from Scandi Hi again or A Greenie Hi?

High pressure still present over Siberia and could ridge into Scandinavia - this chart won't verify but from post -10C uppers period in this run, the trend is for more potential from Scandi Hi and/or Greenie Hi.

[sn0wman]

Fantastic GFS 18z again! Am a bit worried with the fax chart at 120 hours though, which seems to have gone with the UKMO raw output.

[lorenzo]

re UKMO catch up tomorrow

[edo]

Ho Folks

Been a member here for over a year now and enjoy watching the Scottish thread. I agree with the others that this is better than the authorities forecasts but the problem I have is the experts here in the thread have so much knowledge that when they speak it would be like me standing in the middle of a group of Chinese people speaking in their native language and me standing going thats amazing but what are they saying. I live just outside Aberdeen and am really missing the snow like the rest of you so in lay mans language do I have any real chance of seeing snow from this debate that is currently going on.

Thanks Guys

Welcome I was new here 2 months ago......its a fantastic thread and already have learned so much and feel comfortable looking at basic signals in charts thanks to these guys and the help section in netweather which Lorenzo often links to for newbies.....like everywhere else its wait and see but the projected uppers indicate convective showers will be likely and would reach westhill so id say chances are decent...do try and get involved though...I would never dream of commenting in the model thread but feel comfortable to post in here knowing if i talk rubbish i wont get laughed at but helped...someone will have given u a far better answer before i have finished typing this probably

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ho Folks

Been a member here for over a year now and enjoy watching the Scottish thread. I agree with the others that this is better than the authorities forecasts but the problem I have is the experts here in the thread have so much knowledge that when they speak it would be like me standing in the middle of a group of Chinese people speaking in their native language and me standing going thats amazing but what are they saying. I live just outside Aberdeen and am really missing the snow like the rest of you so in lay mans language do I have any real chance of seeing snow from this debate that is currently going on.

Thanks Guys

Hello! Yeah, maybe a bit tomorrow night, probably dry most of next week but very snow. Next weekend is still a bit uncertain but most likely it'll be incredibly cold with the possibility of some heavy snow at times. Hard to say how much or where though after midweek.

[A Winter's Tale]

I would actually laugh if the easterly never happens as it would top the list of the great easterly flops! The reaction to such a travesty would be comical in the model thread!

But that's unlikely, easterly is going to happen but other details of the event will become clearer closer to the event. As long as the Scandi Hi stays around we could enjoy anything from an extended easterly, a snowfest or retrogression to Greenland.

Anymore thoughts on this easterly scenario next week for Scotland what may happen with the Scandi Hi and potential Greenie Hi beyond?

[Northernlights]

OK. so the models say the day after tomorrow is going to get colder and the day after that colder still. Some of these charts are fairly good and after such a mild autumn nature brings everything back into balence . Currently 1c clear and a ground frost

[lorenzo]

Back into balance with a vengeance NL. The stratosphere fairly delivered

[abrown0007]

Thanks for all the advice chaps. Will keep fingers crossed for the white stuff. I do understand its a very complicated science to get right hence the reason the tv folk get it wrong so often so will continue to watch here and read up on articles in the learning zone.

Cheers

[LomondSnowstorm]

Advice for tomorrow - act as though the charts of the last 2 days never happened and that we're still at 50/50 between any sort of easterly and southwesterlies, because there is NO WAY the model output today can possibly be topped. It won't verify like that, it can't possibly, those uppers are too extreme and will get toned down, but even if they do we have a lot of leeway. Snow potential (other than short range), record breaking minima, don't bother about it unless we come out of tomorrow with full support i.e. ensemble means, UKMO, GEM, GFS and ECM showing that cold pool hitting. If we get through that, then the rampede proper will begin...

Typical NMM temperature prediction, 1C on the chart, -0.7C on the thermometer. By that logic we're looking at 1-2C tomorrow evening as the first snow showers start to appear in the North Sea....

[gsteruk]

hmm, a few hours ago netweather had some lovely forecasts for central - snow from tuesday onwards, now when i check....no sign of snow at all - none!!! whats changed over the last few hours?!?!?

[LomondSnowstorm]

hmm, a few hours ago netweather had some lovely forecasts for central - snow from tuesday onwards, now when i check....no sign of snow at all - none!!! whats changed over the last few hours?!?!?

The netweather forecast is based purely on the latest GFS. The GFS is good at modelling frontal snow but not showers from the east, so when you looked we had more 'battleground snowfall' on the charts and now we have more in the way of a proper cold easterly. At this range precipitation predictions are about as accurate as your horoscope so I wouldn't be too bothered.

[gsteruk]

The netweather forecast is based purely on the latest GFS. The GFS is good at modelling frontal snow but not showers from the east, so when you looked we had more 'battleground snowfall' on the charts and now we have more in the way of a proper cold easterly. At this range precipitation predictions are about as accurate as your horoscope so I wouldn't be too bothered.

thanks a lot for explaining that, i just about had a heart attack!! lol

[Cheggers]

Just to give everyone a break from snowmageddon hunting... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-16754531

[A Winter's Tale]

Out of interest, was there a dry, snowless scenario portrayed by the models during the easterlies of the last few winters? I'm feeling just a little nervy about the dryness of it. I think tomorrow is crucial in finding out where we are then next week the accute and important details will come together. If we do end with little snow next week, I would hope that by mid next week the models would be showing more cold weather to come.

Any more advice about how to follow and judge this situation?

[Michael Kaii]

hey Folks totall Newbie here and from scotland! been nosey about the scottish regional and i got one Question for the members?

see when i see the bbc weather forcast and they got temps for the days about 2 degrees...but when i see it from your point its look likes its gonna be a servere cold....complete amature at this can someone explane it in easy english Lol

Cheers Fellow scottish weather lovers!

[LomondSnowstorm]

hey Folks totall Newbie here and from scotland! been nosey about the scottish regional and i got one Question for the members?

see when i see the bbc weather forcast and they got temps for the days about 2 degrees...but when i see it from your point its look likes its gonna be a servere cold....complete amature at this can someone explane it in easy english Lol

Cheers Fellow scottish weather lovers!

Hey Michael, 2C maxima next week probably sounds about right up to Wednesday, it's really Thursday onwards that the properly baltic weather would kick in.