Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[LomondSnowstorm]

Disapointed by latest GFS runs:

1) Any easterly is likely to be bone dry

2) It doesn't last long

3) The supposed "deceased" atlantic comes back

4) Latest GFS run shows the easterly hardly materialising

The battle will continue but I'm concerned that the easterly may not make it and if it does it may be dry and won't hang around for long due to the high being forced south and with little oppurtunity for cold beyond this.

Looks like this battle will continue and atlantic may not be dead after all.

A successful undercut would probably be the snowiest evolution you could get and would result in a better easterly down the line too. Haven't seen a bad run all morning for cold and snow for southeast Scotland at least, 6z snowiest for the west.

[Guest]

Help!!! Said the other night that I wasn't going to look at any more charts but instead just read comments. This has turned out to be even more confusing! Started reading the outputs of the overnights as I noticed some big guns stayed up a-la Steve Murr, Chiono etc who appeared to be predicting armageddon with the 00z GFS in particular? Now all comments look like they are on a slip slide to a shorter, less potent cold spell. My head hurts!!!

Looks like the normal rollercoaster of tantrums and celebrations at every slight twist and tweak to the output...wait for one good run and they'll all be kissing and hugging again, before another bad run and it'll all be tears and strops.

[A Winter's Tale]

A successful undercut would probably be the snowiest evolution you could get and would result in a better easterly down the line too. Haven't seen a bad run all morning for cold and snow for southeast Scotland at least, 6z snowiest for the west.

Perhaps I misread the charts or something. So at what time frame does FI begin in the models as it's such a close situation.

It looks like the block and cold pool is trying to move west but I'm not sure if it's going to win comfortably. Read comments in the model thread also talked about high pressure over Greenland which I never saw?

So, we all know the block is in place, the cold air is to the east and it's going to try and submerge us which is good, BUT we don't know what the Block will do -whether it will move SW, a tad further W or end up in Greenland; the strength of the jet stream and whether it will win out.

I'm hoping for the easterly next week to win and for the High Pressure over Scandinavia to move westwards instead of SWrds.

[lorenzo]

The models continue the winning theme for Winter up here.. Last night a barrel of cold and this morning a proper pasting of snow..

For Sunday > Monday the coastal upper temps still holding in place from previous runs.

Forecasts just outwith the NAE and NMM range and will move to Nowcasting and Satellite. Hard to imagine streamers not forming in this flow.

East coast could do well out of this..look at that cold pool over the NSea.

Then from mid-week we are all building igloos..

Todays model puzzle... scratches head, LS ?

Edited January 28, 2012 by lorenzo

[Guest]

Todays model puzzle... scratches head, LS ?

Proof that the beast from the east has a heart after all (or maybe just a kidney?).

[blitzen]

The models continue the winning theme for Winter up here.. Last night a barrel of cold and this morning a proper pasting of snow..

Thanks Lorenzo - a lot clearer with the visuals for dumb nuts like me!

[edo]

lorenzo stop it.....im going into full MODE........ this week Matthew im going to be sledging with the kids

[sn0wman]

Does anybody know where I can find the Scotland regional thread from November/December 2010? Must have been a right banter! :smilz38:

[Guest]

By 18z tomorrow we're the filling in a deluxe airmass sandwich:

Just need some precip now

[over_the_rainbow]

Had a quick look at the charts and it appears the 6z heard me - am I channeling the GFS??

Great posts above from all showing the potential for the next few days - exactly what I needed to cheer me up!

Edited January 28, 2012 by over_the_rainbow

[BleakMidwinter]

Then from mid-week we are all building igloos..

Oh wow! Anyone know which deity it would be that I sacrifice my sister to in order that this comes about by Wednesday?

I'd better get knitting another pair of mega-insulating woolly socks

[edo]

By 18z tomorrow we're the filling in a deluxe airmass sandwich:

Just need some precip now

lol i like the sandwich analogy...........but what type of sandwich would such a perfect feast be......... Id have to say a toasted meatball marinara with cheese from subway

[thebigyin]

Bad? The 06z GFS? For Scotland it is stunning for much of the run.

Woohoo I can post again. Cant always log in for some reason so not been able to keep up with the thread. Been keeping an eye on the model and comments over on TWO. All lookign interesting to say the least.

IMBY post I apologies - Doc, what are your thoughts for us NE'ers this coming week?

[Guest]

lol i like the sandwich analogy...........but what type of sandwich would such a perfect feast be......... Id have to say a toasted meatball marinara with cheese from subway

Toasted Italian BMT on hearty Italian with Southwest sauce...maybe that should be EastBeast sauce? :lol:

Edit:

Chilled Scotsman ELT (extremely low temperatures) on hearty Oatmeal with EastBeast sauce...better call Subway and tell them to get creating....

Edited January 28, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

The models continue the winning theme for Winter up here.. Last night a barrel of cold and this morning a proper pasting of snow..

For Sunday > Monday the coastal upper temps still holding in place from previous runs.

Forecasts just outwith the NAE and NMM range and will move to Nowcasting and Satellite. Hard to imagine streamers not forming in this flow.

East coast could do well out of this..look at that cold pool over the NSea.

Then from mid-week we are all building igloos..

Todays model puzzle... scratches head, LS ?

*scratches head in return* No idea frankly. I wasn't even aware shortwaves could form at 1030mb. I'll have a look for a historical precedent. It's alleged to be a product of the intense cold pool but the 87 and 91 flows look absolutely textbook without any major kinks like this. If pressure was lower a shortwave moving west would be very plausible and simply act to enhance precip. That's why a proper undercutting jet, even if it is a bit far north, would be my preferred option overall.

[LomondSnowstorm]

By 18z tomorrow we're the filling in a deluxe airmass sandwich:

Just need some precip now

That looks like a distinct upgrade on uppers to me - footlong rather than 6 incher. Filling is indeed pending though...

[Guest]

Hmmm...

Edited January 28, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[Guest]

I was trying to post in a screen shot of my local 06z GFS forecast for the coming week...I'd happily bank that now even if the rest of winter proved to be mild and no more snow.

[Ruzzi]

The netweather 10 day forecast suggests that my area will see over half a meter of snow between wednesday and saturday. Here's to the 06Z GFS!! I would certainly welcome the 12z with open arms if it proves to be identical to the 06z run. I would bet that over the next 10 days just about everyone in scotland will see some of the white stuff, although maybe just some will get more than others

[November13]

I like to take a risk sometimes. I think we will see light snow tonight west of the central belt.The temperatures predicted for today are way higher than the actual. I still have 0.5c here and the bbc and ITV have 5c max.

[Guest]

Out of interest who else already has a covering or dusting of snow? I've got a half and half, the grass is mostly covered but there are quite a lot of blades sticking through the snow...outhouse roof is completely covered though and there is some snow on some of the trees. Will try and post a pic later.

I like to take a risk sometimes. I think we will see light snow tonight west of the central belt.The temperatures predicted for today are way higher than the actual. I still have 0.5c here and the bbc and ITV have 5c max.

The precip looks very light, but it is certainly moving east and if not snow may well fall as freezing drizzle...frizzle maybe?!

[glasgow-guy]

wow potential for real heavy snow from about wednesday through to friday if these charts come off

[November13]

Don't have any snow here but the Ochils look great snow above 1000ft.

We have frost and ice instead!

[glasgow-guy]

anyone here tried the new met-office weather app for android it looks real good ?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Out of interest who else already has a covering or dusting of snow? I've got a half and half, the grass is mostly covered but there are quite a lot of blades sticking through the snow...outhouse roof is completely covered though and there is some snow on some of the trees. Will try and post a pic later.

You lucky west coasters. Still had nothing more than a very light dusting in December. Hoping to more than make up for the snow deficit in the next fortnight but west may still be best for snow at times, as may the far north and aberdeenshire when cold air is forced northeast.