Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[JoeShmoe]

mmmm, If ECM follows the lead of UKMO (as it so often does) then youd have to question whether this spell will be little more than a fart

[blitzen]

Quite foggy here now. Anyone else? 2.5/1.3 WSW.

[A Winter's Tale]

mmmm, If ECM follows the lead of UKMO (as it so often does) then youd have to question whether this spell will be little more than a fart

We don't know what will follow 72hrs on the models, just be glad that during the reliable 72 hours there's a Scandi Hi and a continental flow about to get going. And if this easterly ends up being pathetic, then perhaps expect some more easterly attempts as Siberian Hi tries to ridge into Scandinavia again aswell as whole host of interesting scenarios.

Quite foggy here now. Anyone else? 2.5/1.3 WSW.

Foggyish and cold. A very wintry looking day with the snow caped hills and typical cold looking overcast skies and a bit of fog.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I honestly don't see the high sinking anyway, even with a poor tilt to it. We might end up in a cold surface high scenario for a bit but eventually the cold air would back west.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I honestly don't see the high sinking anyway, even with a poor tilt to it. We might end up in a cold surface high scenario for a bit but eventually the cold air would back west.

Aye The ECM op the morn was well on the mild side of members in FI....

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye The ECM op the morn was well on the mild side of members in FI....

I'd be amazed if mainland UK sees 10C within the next 7 days frankly. ECM looked insane in reforming the PV so quickly over Greenland. Even if the does follow the UKMO up to +144 I'd still expect a continental flow with some energy going under the block to prop it up. The southeast is obviously favoured uppers wise in this situation but so long as the block holds we should all see something down the line.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'd be amazed if mainland UK sees 10C within the next 7 days frankly. ECM looked insane in reforming the PV so quickly over Greenland. Even if the does follow the UKMO up to +144 I'd still expect a continental flow with some energy going under the block to prop it up. The southeast is obviously favoured uppers wise in this situation but so long as the block holds we should all see something down the line.

ECM coming out now...

[A Winter's Tale]

BBC Weather's look at the potential for cold next week - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/16773466

And this what's going on within the freezer that we might plunge into - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16773462

[JoeShmoe]

If the block holds, I think up to 144/168 this will be an E/SE England event with a maybe a few light coastal showers up here. Post 168 it's up in the air of the block holds, if ECM says no I know where my money is

[A Winter's Tale]

If the block holds, I think up to 144/168 this will be an E/SE England event with a maybe a few light coastal showers up here. Post 168 it's up in the air of the block holds, if ECM says no I know where my money is

It doesn't really matter what the models show post 72 hours today or tomorrow, perhaps it's best to wait till next week to see what's happening.

[Norrance]

These mild South Westerly winds never look too far away from NW Scotland and the Azores high wants to build towards us again. We need the block to hold firm and ideally retrogress to our North and keep the LP away from Iceland / Greenland if we want properly into the freezer. We will see what the ECM shows, hopefully something like the GFS.

[A Winter's Tale]

It would be nice if we could get a summary on what the general trend is from the models and what it would mean for Scotland. When reading the Model Thread when there's a snowy chart for the SE of England and not elsehwere and you read comments about how brilliant it is can be misleading.

Now without snow cover (if we get a dry easterly) minimum temperatures would be a little higher compared to having snow on the ground - HOWEVER, with very cold uppers, high pressure and a lack of wind and precip - we may see some very cold temperatures!

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM coming out now...

Looks passable to me http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?28-0

Stronger flow could be heading our way down the pipeline.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012812/ECM0-144.GIF?28-0

-10C uppers in by +144, weak flow but getting stronger http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012812/ECM1-144.GIF?28-0

FWIW, the flow here isn't much weaker than further south with the GFS http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120128/12/144/ukwind.png

In fact it's stronger as that shortwave feature develops

Edited January 28, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[JoeShmoe]

Looks incredible in the SE LS but isn't it too slack up here?

[Guest]

And so it begins...06z was a snow fest, 12z is dry as a bone.

Might as well sit on one of these for the next few days:

[A Winter's Tale]

Entre ECM! ECM run was amazing for the SE with -17C uppers and to my eye it looked okay for us with a better flow! And there's retrogression towards Greenland aswell!!!

I think we now need to get a bigger ramp.............

[JoeShmoe]

And so it begins...06z was a snow fest, 12z is dry as a bone.

Might as well sit on one of these for the next few days:

Yep, parts of the south and east would get buried if that were to verify but just cold and dry for most up here

[blitzen]

Well I don't know the outcome for Scotland from the ECM run really. Dry?. I must say I am totally in awe of what the SE can expect if that verifies!

[A Winter's Tale]

Well I don't know the outcome for Scotland from the ECM run really. Dry?. I must say I am totally in awe of what the SE can expect if that verifies!

Not sure, the isobars didn't look quite as slack as we saw in some GFS runs. But, it does show mid atlantic high and potential greeni hi in FI which would be good for us

Here's a quick question: What would -17C uppers feel like and has it ever occured in the UK?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks incredible in the SE LS but isn't it too slack up here?

Perhaps, it's hard to tell at this range how slack or not the flow will be and I think at points the November/December easterly looked quite slack in the run up but for east coasties anyway this is a pretty magic chart http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012812/ECH1-168.GIF?28-0

What I would say is that getting the block to hold in a favourable position isn't just crucial for the easterly itself but also what happens after it:http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012812/ECH1-240.GIF?28-0

A clean run to retrogression, Scandi trough sinking into the continent and an Arctic reload of epic proportions. Get to that point and we could be looking at another variation on the theme of snowmaggedon.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ECM is fine. Get the cold, then look for the snow.

Folks must remember that FI is only a few days out at the moment

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120128/12/t850Midlothian.png

Into feb and the spread is huge - not worth looking further than day 5 at the mo, other than for signs of cold being 'nearby' and block either holding or retrogressing.

Output is better than it has been all winter and we could be in for a fun feb!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well I don't know the outcome for Scotland from the ECM run really. Dry?. I must say I am totally in awe of what the SE can expect if that verifies!

Well the uppers are -13C and with SSTs relatively high I'd expect some hefty showers to form at least, just they might struggle to get much further west than Angus,Fife and the Lothians. Disturbances in the flow form at relative short notice too, so what might appear a slack flow up to +72 hours could end up with a shortwave in it and give a major dumping far inland. If you think of the 6th December last winter or the 22/23rd December 2009 those were written off as 'cold and dry' for about a week beforehand but ended up giving snowfall. Equally though, it could just end up being cold and dry for most.

[blitzen]

Here's a quick question: What would -17C uppers feel like and has it ever occured in the UK?

Not sure about the uppers, but we have had -26.9 (LS?) in Braemar before. So temps of -25 down south are within the realms of possibility if ECM verified.

Actually I was wrong, it was infact lower - 27.2c in Braemar

Here you go

As you can see in the link, England has already recorded a -26.1c in 1982.

http://www.metoffice...te/uk/extremes/

Edited January 28, 2012 by Blitzen

[lorenzo]

Another beast of a run this evening. Wetterzentrale charts show the flow looking pretty determined here..

And finishes on a high. Literally.

For sheer marvel this chart is the pick of the run..

[edo]

ach bugger it RAMP RAMP RAMP ...The SE will end up with something a bit less severe and we will get a less slack flow.....I will be happy with 3 seperate days of snow falling at some point in next week and 3 or 4 inches on the ground for a week....im not greedy!! Its coming RAMP RAMP RAMP