Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[snowy owl]

no snow here but a light dusting on the pentlands and ochils i could see early this morning.

Charts still have amazing potential, a little confused by the MT thread. will pop back in later for a peek at the 12z's.

[LomondSnowstorm]

anyone here tried the new met-office weather app for android it looks real good ?

The one for iPhone is pretty cool, handy to see radar on the go. They should really have a nw extra app too!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The precip looks very light, but it is certainly moving east and if not snow may well fall as freezing drizzle...frizzle maybe?!

Could be the Precursor to the warm front - fore frontal frizzle?

[Guest]

no snow here but a light dusting on the pentlands and ochils i could see early this morning.

Charts still have amazing potential, a little confused by the MT thread. will pop back in later for a peek at the 12z's.

I saw that yesterday on my way to Kelso (the dusting of snow). There was quite a bit of snow around (in terms of area covered, but not in depth), mostly in the west but at height in the east too and a few bits and bobs down to the south east too.

Could be the Precursor to the warm front - fore frontal frizzle?

It could develop into full frontal frizzle later perhaps?

[lorenzo]

Extracted from the MT courtesy of TEITS.

Outlier of the Day - I laughed Am sure your eyes will be drawn to the control run.. have a nosey at the operational !

[blitzen]

I do hope that something special evolves after all this stress! At least some of those massively low uppers over here at some point in the outlook! You know, if that did materialise, some of you gents may have to consider adding some extra attire to your chest of drawers! A-la -

- Or, for the less well-blessed, pick a finger and cut!!

and for EDODFC and Cheggers -

Edited January 28, 2012 by Blitzen

[Guest]

Seems to have worked this time...I can't see a "BANK" option of the GFS Extra Forecast page on NW:

[blitzen]

Pressure on the up at 1030mbs, temps on the way down at 2.3c (lowest it reached overnight was -0.7c) no wind to speak of from SW and dew point of -2.4c.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Seems to have worked this time...I can't see a "BANK" option of the GFS Extra Forecast page on NW:

15cm of snow, in a day, even from the model that underestimates precip, and that's a downgrade? I'd hate to see what an upgrade looks like...

[A Winter's Tale]

Yesterday we had a dusting but today it's gone. The hills over Renfrewshire and the Campsies and Kilpatricks looked very good though! Hoping for a lot of snow during the coming weeks.

[edo]

I do hope that something special evolves after all this stress! At least some of those massively low uppers over here at some point in the outlook! You know, if that did materialise, some of you gents may have to consider adding some extra attire to your chest of drawers! A-la -

- Or, for the less well-blessed, pick a finger and cut!!

and for EDODFC and Cheggers -

GLOL no need for those im running scared......anyway lets not get back on the V topic we have exciting weather to come (big smile) emoticons keep crashiing my phone......

cant get into charts is there any risk for central/eastern scotland tomorrow night into monday with the fronts colliding?

[gsteruk]

bbc weather and met office as ever predicting a fairly settled week across the central belt. the coming of a new ice age would probably pass over these guys heads...

ill watch netweather forum and forecasts (which show a mighty snow event from tuesday onwards for central) as always, so much more honest and accurate :-)

[LomondSnowstorm]

GLOL no need for those im running scared......anyway lets not get back on the V topic we have exciting weather to come (big smile) emoticons keep crashiing my phone......

cant get into charts is there any ri

sk for central/eastern scotland tomorrow night into monday with the fronts colliding?

Not so much from that front here at least, it looks to be further west than initially modelled, but there is the possibility of wintry showers pushing in off the North Sea tomorrow night.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just noticed this. Looks like we will reach the magic -8C figure that will allow us to think about convective easterly snow showers. A bit more easterly in the wind direction and we'll be laughing http://expert-images...013006_2806.gif

Otherwise it'll be the Angus coastline that takes a battering.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/28/basis12/ukuk/t925/12013006_2812.gif

The sign of a proper cold airmass on the doorstep. Only consideration as far as marginality is concerned is surface level maritime influence, but with light winds I doubt that will extent very far inland. Then again, nor might the showers...

Edited January 28, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[LomondSnowstorm]

Latest run of the NAE has -10C uppers on the doorstep

[A Winter's Tale]

Latest run of the NAE has -10C uppers on the doorstep

That's very interesting! On the GFS 12Z at 12pm Monday, the -10C line is barely in Poland! Surely this has to be an upgrade of some sorts.

It doesn't quite matter whether we get a long lasting easterly or really potent one yet on the models as the block is in place. We now just need to watch how far west everything will be and see it's movement in correspondence with the jet stream.

[A Winter's Tale]

Latest GFS run is so far good for cold but not so much for snow. High pressure and isobars far apart isn't a great sign but with those uppers around, the east coast would see snow.

[JoeShmoe]

Latest GFS run is so far good for cold but not so much for snow. High pressure and isobars far apart isn't a great sign but with those uppers around, the east coast would see snow.

Even then i'd question what we'd see up here. Looks good for E/SE England but with a slack flow i can see it being mostly cold and dry here with the odd flurry. UKMO will be interesting as up here we may be better off with less cold but a different tilt to the flow

Edited January 28, 2012 by JoeShmoe

[LomondSnowstorm]

Even then i'd question what we'd see up here. Looks good for E/SE England but with a slack flow i can see it being mostly cold and dry here with the odd flurry. UKMO will be interesting as up here we may be better off with less cold but a different tilt to the flow

With -13C uppers? I think we'd see at least a few showers with that surelyhttp://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120128/12/144/h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120128/12/144/hgt500-1000.png

Anyway, the UKMO isn't great so it's all open to debate at this range anyway.

[A Winter's Tale]

Where do I start!

We've got this as soon as Monday!

Let the cold begin!

An imensley cold chart and the block to our NE looks strong.

Look at W Russia, the block has got backup!

A very weird scenario?

Scandi Hi still present as our cold starts to disapear.

Then we get a northerly! QUESTION - High pressure in Atlantic: can it block the jet or link with Greenland?

High pressure over Canada - does that mean anything? The Siberian High - can it possibly ridge into Scandinavia AGAIN!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

With -13C uppers? I think we'd see at least a few showers with that surelyhttp://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....hgt500-1000.png

Anyway, the UKMO isn't great so it's all open to debate at this range anyway.

Peachy GFS 12Z for sure. Nice from T+48, eye candy from T+111 right out into FI.

[A Winter's Tale]

UKMO not great? That's not good news!

Still in the short term there is a block over Scandinavia and a continental flow, it's just a question to how good it gets and perhaps we may see more blocking as we move into February and March.

That NAE chart showing -10C uppers by Monday is impressive as on the GFS 12z at the same timeframe, the nearest -10C uppers were in Eastern Poland. Should there be reason to take interest in NAE charts and what would be the outcome of -10C uppers as early as Monday?

[Cheggers]

I do hope that something special evolves after all this stress! At least some of those massively low uppers over here at some point in the outlook! You know, if that did materialise, some of you gents may have to consider adding some extra attire to your chest of drawers! A-la -

- Or, for the less well-blessed, pick a finger and cut!!

and for EDODFC and Cheggers -

Well if we get buried as is showing at times, won't make it to The Sandyford.

I wonder if Mr Attenborough is going to filming the next episode of Frozen Planet in Stirling?

Edited January 28, 2012 by Cheggers

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

So are we ramping? I think I can go one better than previous attempts at that....

[LomondSnowstorm]

Short Term Alert:

The mesoscale models are struggling to pick up on a feature which is perhaps a secondary (or primary I suppose) warm front . The NMM places this over the Northwest Highlands, with very little precipitation south of here, but then builds it in southwestwards through the evening. As colder uppers move in by morning it is then forecast to turn widely to snow across central areas before dying out. However, if you look on the radar the main area of precipitation appears to be over southwest Scotland and also Ireland at the moment. That's a completely bizarre error from the models at such a short range so ignore the NMM output at the moment. the Met Office seems to have a better grip on things

http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map

However, this still has a similar band of light/moderate precipitation hitting tomorrow morning and turning to snow as it dies out. It could end up giving a covering to central and eastern parts as colder uppers move in.

So are we ramping? I think I can go one better than previous attempts at that....

That UKMO doesn't look too bad having thought about it, a slightly better tilt and it'd be as snowy for Scotland as the GFS 6Z. So yeah, ramp ahoy!

MO says showers starting to extend into your neck of the woods by 9pm tomorrow. Nearly there

Edited January 28, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm