Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not sure about the uppers, but we have had -26.9? in Braemar before. So temps of -25 down south are within the realms of possibility if ECM verified.

-27.2C I believe is the record hit by both Braemar in 1982 and Altnaharra in December 1995 (a winter belonging to the era of modernity no less). The uppers themselves wouldn't deliver record cold minima but the combination of snowfields and slack winds would in the aftermath of the coldest uppers. Those uppers would bring a huge amount of instability to the airmass even with high pressure and would give major convection, not so much streamers but mini lows forming. Temperatures would not exceed 0C even on the beaches and probably not get above -5C anywhere inland. Good luck to our southern neighbours though if they get it and we're left dry- they've been waiting over 20 years for the beast to return.

Edited January 28, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[A Winter's Tale]

The beast isn't far away, have we ever seen such a beast disapear so close to the event?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not sure, the isobars didn't look quite as slack as we saw in some GFS runs. But, it does show mid atlantic high and potential greeni hi in FI which would be good for us

Here's a quick question: What would -17C uppers feel like and has it ever occured in the UK?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-13-0-1.png

Move the european trough about 300 miles further north and that's what you get http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-13-0-0.png

I'm assuming we got snow out of that?

[A Winter's Tale]

For anyone complaining about a slack flow then there's no need to worry, a nice Mid Atlantic High comes to the rescue.

[over_the_rainbow]

I see on the MT thread there are quite a few saying we will remain dry up here....that's not what a girl wants to hear!

Hoping that there is still plenty of time for angles to adjust and be nudged a tad to encompass us....

[over_the_rainbow]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-13-0-1.png

Move the european trough about 300 miles further north and that's what you get http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-13-0-0.png

I'm assuming we got snow out of that?

I was at primary school in Dumfries then and I definitely got snowed in on our farm track and had days off school in 1987 ... Sadly memories aren't that sharp that I can remember the exact dates lol!

[snow1975]

http://modeles.meteo...87-1-13-0-1.png

Move the european trough about 300 miles further north and that's what you get http://modeles.meteo...87-1-13-0-0.png

I'm assuming we got snow out of that?

I remember it fairly well. Powdery snow drifts. Most of the snow came early here, on the Sunday. My locality seemed to miss most of the convective showers thereafter.

[blitzen]

-27.2C Good luck to our southern neighbours though if they get it and we're left dry- they've been waiting over 20 years for the beast to return.

Hmmnn, not so sure I am going to let you away with that one LS! After the summer we had last year, I felt I was abroad whilst in Kent in August!! It had been that way from June apparently (which they get pretty much every year!) So I have well and truly got my jealous hat on! If they constantly get the summers, then I want the winters!

The beast isn't far away, have we ever seen such a beast disapear so close to the event?

Now I am not going to spoil your evening by answering that!

[edo]

I see on the MT thread there are quite a few saying we will remain dry up here....that's not what a girl wants to hear!

Hoping that there is still plenty of time for angles to adjust and be nudged a tad to encompass us....

chokes as takes a drink spraying the laptop....that comments wrong on several levels

im not worrying...it may not be snowmageddon but FI at T72 and i m sure with the uppers and convection and features appearing at short notice we will do just fine

[over_the_rainbow]

chokes as takes a drink spraying the laptop....that comments wrong on several levels

im not worrying...it may not be snowmageddon but FI at T72 and i m sure with the uppers and convection and features appearing at short notice we will do just fine

Shall I hold you to that lol?

[edo]

I was at primary in Aberdeen in 1987 was at an aberdeen match which was abandoned at halftime due to a blizzard which started just at halftime and rendered the pitch unviewable and unplayable in 10mins....we barely got home with the 8 mile trip horrendous and that night had thundersnow and powercut......and several days off school from the Monday....was last year until until experienced that again.....hence was telling all thekids in the street enjoy this its a once in a generation event.....they never listened lol what does he know could see them thinking!!

[blitzen]

im not worrying...it may not be snowmageddon but FI at T72 and i m sure with the uppers and convection and features appearing at short notice we will do just fine

If you are wrong, I shall have the greatest of pleasure in kicking your crutches away!

[lorenzo]

Somewhere between the GFS snowfest of this morning and the deep entrenched cold of the ECM would suit me fine.. still fascinating to watch it play out. Will be interesting to see the subtle tilt to the easterly which is changing run to run at present.

What is a trend is the severe cold pool, am wondering about Polar Lows already 500hpa temps are in the area - 40, -45, this is GFS, ECM not rolled out on weathercast fully, stuck at t96.

The possibility of the Greenland high delivering another cold shot from the North is also good.

With such cold in play I would expect plenty of surprises in the Nowcasting time frame, what a difference to the last couple of months, mild November, raging PV and Bawbags a distant memory !

[edo]

Shall I hold you to that lol?

lol hmmmm no im not nearly knowledgeable enough....if LS or Lorenzo say it can hold them to it!!.....I am just going to see what the faxes bring...doc posted a good one over on two which looked positive for us on Tuesday

If you are wrong, I shall have the greatest of pleasure in kicking your crutches away!

lol awww I'm not happy I tried to come off the fence in fact ive set myself up here to blame when its a slack dry easterly for a week before atlantic fights back...eeeeeek.......runs for cover :ph34r:

Edited January 28, 2012 by edodfc

[LomondSnowstorm]

Somewhere between the GFS snowfest of this morning and the deep entrenched cold of the ECM would suit me fine.. still fascinating to watch it play out. Will be interesting to see the subtle tilt to the easterly which is changing run to run at present.

What is a trend is the severe cold pool, am wondering about Polar Lows already 500hpa temps are in the area - 40, -45, this is GFS, ECM not rolled out on weathercast fully, stuck at t96.

The possibility of the Greenland high delivering another cold shot from the North is also good.

With such cold in play I would expect plenty of surprises in the Nowcasting time frame, what a difference to the last couple of months, mild November, raging PV and Bawbags a distant memory !

Absolutely, we had something similar to a polar low on the 26th November last year which gave very intense, albeit shortlived precipitation to central Scotland - and that was with uppers around -6C!

I reckon we'd do just fine for snow if those charts verified (including the GEFS control which has been almost scarily consistent in backing the GFS in bringing the the beast in). Cross model agreement on -17C somewhere in the British Isles - never thought I'd see the day.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The beast isn't far away, have we ever seen such a beast disapear so close to the event?

Probably, but this one has a lot going for it. And anyway, if the 6Z was what came of it instead I wouldn't exactly be complaining...

Ok, enough of this ramping, I've got an AH physics prelim on Monday so I'd better try to do more work for it. I'll be back on after the pub run for a TOORP about how the uppers were on -16C above Kent instead of -17C

[Sawel]

The latest output is a tad frustrating for us. We only seem to get a small window of opportunity for snow on the ECM run and that's at 168hrs whereas our Southern neighbours get blitzed.

[JoeShmoe]

The latest output is a tad frustrating for us. We only seem to get a small window of opportunity for snow on the ECM run and that's at 168hrs whereas our Southern neighbours get blitzed.

To be fair we had ours in nov/dec 10, all 18 inches of it, and you can't begrudge the guys down threre who've been waiting ten years or more

Still watching 20 minute news bulletins of it every night will get tiresome pretty quickly!

[Sawel]

To be fair we had ours in nov/dec 10, all 18 inches of it, and you can't begrudge the guys down threre who've been waiting ten years or more

Still watching 20 minute news bulletins of it every night will get tiresome pretty quickly!

Well, it's not that I'm not wanting them to have none, all we need is a slight tweaking of the elongation of the high pressure and it would be better for us too and we can join in on the action.

Still, tomorrow's runs will probably be different anyway so we'll see.

[lorenzo]

I was at primary in Aberdeen in 1987 was at an aberdeen match which was abandoned at halftime due to a blizzard which started just at halftime and rendered the pitch unviewable and unplayable in 10mins....we barely got home with the 8 mile trip horrendous and that night had thundersnow and powercut......and several days off school from the Monday....was last year until until experienced that again.....hence was telling all thekids in the street enjoy this its a once in a generation event.....they never listened lol what does he know could see them thinking!!

On the case, I was at this game and didnt make it home to Aberdeenshire got stuck at Whiterashes or White cairns can't remember which?

[lorenzo]

DAY AFTER TOMORROW !!

Daily Express

BIG FREEZE - IS IT THE NEXT ICE AGE?

Daily Mail

CHILLY Eh?

Herald

THE BLITZEN RANGE RECORD SALES

Vogue

Please continue the media rampede bingo

[A Winter's Tale]

Well, it's not that I'm not wanting them to have none, all we need is a slight tweaking of the elongation of the high pressure and it would be better for us too and we can join in on the action.

Still, tomorrow's runs will probably be different anyway so we'll see.

Yes it will change. First and foremost, we've got a Scandi Hi and an easterly flow about to kick in so anything can happen and at short notice too! Note, that the Scandi Hi may move retrogress towards Greenland that would suit us quite well. So basically it's all to play for and having very cold air, an easterly flow and a scandi hi in place is fantastic and opens a whole host of oppurtunties. It won't be until the last minute that we'll know what will happen around 2nd/3rd of February and by that stage the models may show an extension of the cold spell and a good easterly flow beyond those dates.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

The welsh are eagerly anticipating a snowfall but it looks like that Scandi Hi is at work with front stalling over Ireland. It probably will end up over Wales but if it doesn't this is a sign of the block and the fronts (well everything) being a bit further west which is a good thing.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

Just had a closer look at this and I'm greatly encouraged at how west the stalling front is! And I've just spotted the easterly flow in the north sea and the cloud in the sea are moving westwards - TOWARDS US!

[West Highland Storm]

I am off to Glasgow from Fort William tomorrow will return late tomorrow night leaving Glasgow about midnight, anyone care to predict what kind of snow events coming for this route.

The old Subaru will come into its own, no doubt.

[Sawel]

Here's the ECM ensemble mean for...

120- http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1201.gif

144- http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1441.gif

168- http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1681.gif

192- http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1921.gif

216- http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2161.gif

240- http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

Edited January 28, 2012 by Sawel