Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[lorenzo]

Would take 168 there and await further runs. For up here we could do with a budge North on the cold pool for the real ramp to come out... !

Still if we are being calm about some of the best synoptics for a long winter model watching and re-focusing on trends look at this ECM profile of the ECM uppers, mean never thinking about 0 for the first bit of Feb.

[snowy owl]

It has been fun reading this thread tonight, it is taking me back to the days of real snow and a thing almost forgotten - Snow Drifts!! I remember in 87 we had 6ft high snow drifts along our country road, it was tremendous!!

I have been looking at those cold uppers of around -14 and can't quite believe what i am seeing. Its certainly going to be cold and tbh i can't see us missing snow in Scotland at some point throughout this spell. I love a good easterly as of course we do tend to get mega snow events along the east coast areas. I hope everyone gets the snow they wish for.

I think i'm gonna have a wee cuppa and rest my poor eyeballs - strain of reading the MT!

Edited January 28, 2012 by snowy owl

[Norrance]

On the case, I was at this game and didnt make it home to Aberdeenshire got stuck at Whiterashes or White cairns can't remember which?

I was at Dun Utd v Celtic on the Saturday. Heavy snow showers came in during the second half but the game finished with a Utd win. The real heavy powdery stuff with low temps didn't arrive until the Sunday and on to Monday. Nice to see drifting snow even in the city centre. Best snow I have seen in Dundee until Nov / Dec 2010 with the bonus in 1987 of it being windy enough to drift off the roofs etc. Stats show that Kinross had 45 cms. Being convectional showers the hills stopped it going much further West than that with little depth in the Highlands. In the central belt without hills it did go right through to hit the Glasgow area, particularly the South side.

B good to see something similar again.

[edo]

On the case, I was at this game and didnt make it home to Aberdeenshire got stuck at Whiterashes or White cairns can't remember which?

I stayed in newtonhill which at the time was a small village and certainly not a small village these days....so it was the A90 we struggled along...google pulling up blanks....im sure Aberdeen were cruising aswell and 3-0 up but im not sure who they were playing....I will ask my old boy if he remembers but as he still asks if I want a cup of tea and I've never drank it the hopes of him supplying me with info are slim

[edo]

I was at Dun Utd v Celtic on the Saturday. Heavy snow showers came in during the second half but the game finished with a Utd win.

Cheers norrance that rules 2 teams out

[lorenzo]

Right onwards and upwards with the uppers going downwards on the 18z..

Sorry !

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well, it's not that I'm not wanting them to have none, all we need is a slight tweaking of the elongation of the high pressure and it would be better for us too and we can join in on the action.

Still, tomorrow's runs will probably be different anyway so we'll see.

We can indeed, but even with a slack flow shortwave features can crop up at relatively short notice and prep up the precipitation. I agree though that it would be much better if the flow could be adjusted, but given the upgrades we've seen in the last 5 days anything is possible. At points we were talking about an entirely 'dry' southeasterly drift with nothing happening and now we're looking at a severe, potentially extreme period of cold and snow for some.

[Stockaree]

Someone will correct me . But I can't remember an easterly in winter that has not produced showers. The question in Edinburgh is whether it was sleet or snow . Fully expect to get my new snow shovel out during the week. It's been lying dormant all winter so far

[A Winter's Tale]

Okay I'm going to say that GFS 18z will be some sort of a downgrade. Let's see how wrong my prediction will be! LOL

[Cheggers]

Wow, I spend the day ripping my kitchen floor up (water leak number 7 for the house) and all hell breaks loose, so looks like i may get my new shovel christened as well. Has the MT imploded yet?

Currently high patchy clouds with a temp of 1c.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/28/basis18/ukuk/prty/12013000_2818.gif

Precipitation more widespread on the latest NAE. Remember that it tends to show any precipitation lacking intensity as rainfall but uppers are almost perfect for snow showers http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/28/basis18/ukuk/t850/12013000_2818.gif

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS 18z - Easterly - yes; snowy easterly - not yet

http://expert-images...013000_2818.gif

Precipitation more widespread on the latest NAE. Remember that it tends to show any precipitation lacking intensity as rainfall but uppers are almost perfect for snow showers http://expert-images...013000_2818.gif

I'm looking at the GFS for Monday and the nearest -10C uppers are way out in eastern poland! What does this mean if NAE charts are showing such cold uppers so early on?

[Sawel]

We can indeed, but even with a slack flow shortwave features can crop up at relatively short notice and prep up the precipitation. I agree though that it would be much better if the flow could be adjusted, but given the upgrades we've seen in the last 5 days anything is possible. At points we were talking about an entirely 'dry' southeasterly drift with nothing happening and now we're looking at a severe, potentially extreme period of cold and snow for some.

I agree. I'm looking forward to the 12z's tomorrow as by then it should be clearer what we can possibly expect for the forthcoming week.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/28/basis18/ukuk/taup/12013006_2818.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/28/basis18/ukuk/uv10/12013006_2818.gif

Winds more easterly than the 12Z, dewpoints below 0C by 6am, convergence towards Perth

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/28/basis18/ukuk/prty/12013006_2818.gif

Shower potential fairly significant really.

[edo]

Wow, I spend the day ripping my kitchen floor up (water leak number 7 for the house) and all hell breaks loose, so looks like i may get my new shovel christened as well. Has the MT imploded yet?

Currently high patchy clouds with a temp of 1c.

Ive only braved the two model thread......will go check here now....If i dont make it out and return then enjoy the snow.....

-1.1 here and feeling very cold with the slightest breath showing in the air

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS 18z - Easterly - yes; snowy easterly - not yet

I'm looking at the GFS for Monday and the nearest -10C uppers are way out in eastern poland! What does this mean if NAE charts are showing such cold uppers so early on?

Nothing to the overall pattern, the -10C pool is perhaps so small that the GFS doesn't have a high enough resolution to 'see' it. It mostly just means we can expect to at least have a few showers teasing us out in the North Sea tomorrow night!

[edo]

http://expert-images...013006_2818.gif

http://expert-images...013006_2818.gif

Winds more easterly than the 12Z, dewpoints below 0C by 6am, convergence towards Perth

http://expert-images...013006_2818.gif

Shower potential fairly significant really.

see my friends BLITZEN and OVERTHERAINBOW i was right and if im not then it was LS who is wrong

i know he is only telling us what the computer says cant really blame him OR ME

[A Winter's Tale]

It really is looking like a dry easterly from the GFS 18z. I hope the latest NAE charts prove to be right.

If the next few runs show little in the way of a decent flow then I'd be hoping for heights over Greenland which I think are more reliabe than Scandi Hi's for cold and snow.

[Sunny Leith]

This is where local forecasting really comes into play on the Scottish regional thread. I've lost count of the number of times that snow potential in easterlies has been badly underplayed by the forecasters - as LS and others will confirm !

EdiT; not counting any chickens but inside a week we could have -10 uppers, the cold dry air picking up moisture over the North Sea track. Believe me, there's only one outcome !

Edited January 28, 2012 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is where local forecasting really comes into play on the Scottish regional thread. I've lost count of the number of times that snow potential in easterlies has been badly underplayed by the forecasters - as LS and others will confirm !

Good to see you around on the forum again. Absolutely, between us we could probably write a research paper on the reluctance of computer models of all but the highest resolution to model convective snow for eastern Scotland!

I believe the newish MO 1km resolution run claims convective easterlies as one of its strong points, and in fairness to them last winter was the first that they actually called the easterly right (it was just the famous 'Stevenson shortwave' they failed to pick up on) so I'd keep a check on the Met Office beta site which seems to use the very high res. outlook for its precipitation map.

(watch out for the channel low)

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120128/18/162/h500slp.png

[LomondSnowstorm]

Pub run is very good, I suspect 'thar be monsters (or at least features bringing heavy snow in places)' in the slackness over the UK

http://cdn.nwstatic....177/h500slp.png

Thar certainly be cold air anyway http://cdn.nwstatic....7/ukmintemp.png

Surely we're due a downgrade at some point, right? Right? :help: :cold: Personally I think the models are building up to the WMC Moscow's famous '-30C uppers centred over the UK' run, the timeframe after which showed a blank screen with 'grid undefined' written on it....

Edited January 28, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[A Winter's Tale]

Easterly looks likely, cold weather looks like, just the details of it are unclear.

I'm happy with scenario at 216hrs! And towards the end of the run the scandi hi is still in place and there's high pressure in the atlantic that can act as a decent block if it retrogresses towards Greenland.

[Sunny Leith]

Yeah, happens time and time again doesn't it. The truly annoying thing has always been watching Scottish BBC-metoffice forecasters make that same mistake in these situations. Way too early to talk about snow specifics for the week but all the pre-conditions seem to be slotting into place in the forecast. Here we go again !

Good to see you around on the forum again. Absolutely, between us we could probably write a research paper on the reluctance of computer models of all but the highest resolution to model convective snow for eastern Scotland!

I believe the newish MO 1km resolution run claims convective easterlies as one of its strong points, and in fairness to them last winter was the first that they actually called the easterly right (it was just the famous 'Stevenson shortwave' they failed to pick up on) so I'd keep a check on the Met Office beta site which seems to use the very high res. outlook for its precipitation map.

(watch out for the channel low)

http://cdn.nwstatic....162/h500slp.png

[LomondSnowstorm]

EdiT; not counting any chickens but inside a week 36 hours we could have -10 uppers, the cold dry air picking up moisture over the North Sea track. Believe me, there's only one outcome !

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/28/basis18/ukuk/t850/12013012_2818.gif

[lorenzo]

Pub run is very good, I suspect 'thar be monsters (or at least features bringing heavy snow in places)' in the slackness over the UK

http://cdn.nwstatic....177/h500slp.png

Thar certainly be cold air anyway http://cdn.nwstatic....7/ukmintemp.png

Surely we're due a downgrade at some point, right? Right? :help: :cold: Personally I think the models are building up to the WMC Moscow's famous '-30C uppers centred over the UK' run, the timeframe after which showed a blank screen with 'grid undefined' written on it....

Moscow anomaly is off to Japan

Another stunning 18z. Fast running out of superlatives for this weekend model watching. Unreal and on the verge of record breaking. Good to see you by-tor..fine charts indeed ! Click the save button folks