Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gens-14-0-180.png?18

My favourite run of the GEFS parallels - -15C uppers get us from the northeast.

[Hairy Celt]

http://modeles.meteo...14-0-180.png?18

My favourite run of the GEFS parallels - -15C uppers get us from the northeast.

I'll have that one thanks. Been having a quick look at the models just now and probably feel as excited as a Scilly Islander - apart from some chilly days & nights to come.

The worms and slugs I uncovered in the yard today were seriously annoyed with being disturbed, they were all were quoting from the 12z GFS.

[JoeShmoe]

Those showers on the radar definitely moving east, wonder if they will make land?

[Guest]

Aye good to be back Lorenzo. The first hint of serious winter and I sneak in the forum back door ... I'm just a glory hunter !

You and me both by-tor...although in my defence I was back at least three days ago :lol:

Now where did I park my rollercoaster...starting to not like the look of this cold spell but is was gorgeous looking yesterday

[Guest]

Those showers on the radar definitely moving east, wonder if they will make land?

East? They're going west, I also thought the radar was going the wrong way for a minute after all the west to east rubbish we've had for months Nice to see something going the "wrong" way :lol:

Interesting that any breakdown keeps getting punted back into the low res end of the GFS runs...I seem to remember this was a feature of previous long cold spells.

Edited January 29, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[BleakMidwinter]

BM, think you'll be needing another layer or 3. ;-p

::goes into speed-knitting mode::

::worries slightly as her steel knitting-needles start smouldering from friction ignition....

[snowy owl]

::goes into speed-knitting mode::

::worries slightly as her steel knitting-needles start smouldering from friction ignition....

I think i'll join in with the knitting too!!

[blitzen]

You and me both by-tor...although in my defence I was back at least three days ago :lol:

Now where did I park my rollercoaster...starting to not like the look of this cold spell but is was gorgeous looking yesterday

Morning Catch. I kinda felt that yesterday, although the predicted cold was fantastic, that us Scots were going to have all the pain with no gain so to speak. A bit like a northerly for Fife! There is nothing more awful than suffering cold temps but also being bone dry. This morning however, tho the predicted uppers are less cold, I would think that we stand a greater chance snow-wise? There does seem to be a bit more action?

[BleakMidwinter]

I think i'll join in with the knitting too!!

Red sky this morning for a shepherd's warning made me think of maybe just snagging the fleece on one of northernlights' sheep and knitting straight from the sheep - after all, it's a Weather Wether, right?

nl, what do your Weather Wethers say about likely precipitation please?

Calm and chill here. XC says "oooOOOoooo!", sorry my mistake it says temp 0, wind speed 0, visibility 10000, pressure 1031.

[blitzen]

When I got up this morning, the wind was due west. Just checked again and it is now ENE. I guess this must be the start of colder air starting to come in? Temps 2.5c with dewpoints 1.4c not really reflecting that at the moment, but you can see the flow from the east quite clearly on the radar. We might pick up some of those showers in the North Sea hopefully?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

[lorenzo]

Morning All feast your eyes on this mess from the ECM this morning - Atlantic meets continental cold pool in spectacular fashion..

Now where is my shovel?

[Zerouali lives]

The question is whether those showers coming into the east coast will be rain or snow...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Wee trough thingy running down the E coast on fax for midnight tonight.

I'm guessing it evolves from that line of showers in the NS at the moment.

The question is whether those showers coming into the east coast will be rain or snow...

Snow for inland with some elevation it looks like.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/29/basis06/ukuk/prty/12013000_2906.gif

Edited January 29, 2012 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

The question is whether those showers coming into the east coast will be rain or snow...

Just have to keep an eye on temps/dew points for an idea.

[Guest]

Heavy drizzle here...lovely.

[snowy owl]

Blitzen i agree the models seems to be toying with a "dry" easterly. I am not yet sure that we have enough of a certainty on the models past 96hrs to be sure of anything, so i am inclined to wait a little longer and see where it takes us.

Off out into the chill air (lovely) of the mornng.

Edited January 29, 2012 by snowy owl

[blitzen]

Heavy drizzle here...lovely.

You are not alone!

[Cheggers]

2C and looks like we had rain earlier. How far inland Westward are we expecting to see the snow showers tonight?

[edo]

When I got up this morning, the wind was due west. Just checked again and it is now ENE. I guess this must be the start of colder air starting to come in? Temps 2.5c with dewpoints 1.4c not really reflecting that at the moment, but you can see the flow from the east quite clearly on the radar. We might pick up some of those showers in the North Sea hopefully?

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

Thats exactly what we were talking about last night.....when you watch the loop of the radar you can see how these showers generate and group together and this is only the start of the cold spell.....they will only get better and bigger as the colder uppers arrive....todays may not be snow but at some point this week they surely will be

temp 0.8 here nd have had gusts of wind from E NE ENE and currently W so mixing it up......at least we can watch something more than the models now ie temps radars dewpoints and lamposts

[lorenzo]

hey Folks totall Newbie here and from scotland! been nosey about the scottish regional and i got one Question for the members?

see when i see the bbc weather forcast and they got temps for the days about 2 degrees...but when i see it from your point its look likes its gonna be a servere cold....complete amature at this can someone explane it in easy english Lol

Cheers Fellow scottish weather lovers!

Couple of places to look at temps are on NetWx. and for min and max Wetterzentrale. If you find us all on radar watch one evening we also play the how cold will Altnaharra get game.. BBC and Meto aren't allowed to ramp cold prospects - we are

[Hairy Celt]

Just looked at the overnight models (ok no sniggering) and thought gosh :blink: :blink: :ph34r: that's baltic for the foreseeable; then I remember what happened last time :unsure: no snow, just chilblains... Next weekend currently looks fun tho

Oh & currently 1C and a fair bit of high cloud, ie what it'll be like... (record's stuck)

Just a thought: why have the ops on the last few runs been consistently right on the cold end of the range?

Edited January 29, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[BleakMidwinter]

I've got this computer on a table facing a big window, and a comfy armchair to sit in, enough room for me and the cat, and right outside, bang in front of me, is a lamp-post...

Perfectly set-up for the LPW*, I reckon! Now I just need to be patient and wait for something to watch... XC says temp 0 and dew point 0, so maybe, maybe, maybe...

*Lamp-Post Watch

[LomondSnowstorm]

2C and looks like we had rain earlier. How far inland Westward are we expecting to see the snow showers tonight?

Probably not that far, the showers aren't so much storming in from Denmark as lazily drifting up the Berwickshire coast. If I had to guess I'd say draw a line around the Pentlands then along to the bridge up the M90 then up the A93 (Perth to Braemar) and anywhere east of that is in with a good chance of seeing a shower. We seem to be sitting in a fairly localised cold pool judging by Blitzen's temperature, 0.7C/-0.2C, but I'm expecting maxima around 3-4C on the east coast.

Longer term outlook looks fine to me, a bit riskier certainly but given our latitude I'd say any attempt to undercut the block with the cold pool we've got to our east should be snowmaggedon. And as TEITS points out, everything in the shorter term is still edging just a bit further west...

edit: just realised why temperatures are so much higher further west - the warm front. Is that band of precipitation just to the west of here just drizzly rain?

Edited January 29, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[edo]

Wee trough thingy running down the E coast on fax for midnight tonight.

I'm guessing it evolves from that line of showers in the NS at the moment.

Snow for inland with some elevation it looks like.

http://expert-images...013000_2906.gif

Nice SS i love troughy thingies..... overtherainbow these look good for us if we can get the right temp and dewpoint......dont hav the elevation so yet again a marginal chance but a good one... maybe............ perhaps hould just stay away from threads models and radars all day and look oot window at midnight.......nah never gonna happen #addicted

[edo]

2C and looks like we had rain earlier. How far inland Westward are we expecting to see the snow showers tonight?

halfway across the country but will they be snow or is the precipitation being overegged? perhaps not with the trough feature on the fax could just mean decent precipitation and greater inland penetration.....but will it be snaw