Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[daboss]

No it isnae, but it's Baltic.

[daboss]

I had to laugh at this London biased news report.

Big freeze fails to materialise

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gAKNJ4sd0NUahN3q0lOudyV0-ncw?docId=N0154601327594604668A

[LomondSnowstorm]

I had to laugh at this London biased news report.

Big freeze fails to materialise

http://www.google.co...01327594604668A

The funny thing was that there was slightly more snow than anticipated last night in South Wales and the higher bits of the Midlands, and snow was never meant to get near the southeast.

Anyway, this was something of an unintentional late nighter but unless I doze off I may as well wait for the GFS and UKMO to come out around 4am.

[andy100]

No it isnae, but it's Baltic.

ya pure bam!!!

[Cheggers]

The funny thing was that there was slightly more snow than anticipated last night in South Wales and the higher bits of the Midlands, and snow was never meant to get near the southeast.

Anyway, this was something of an unintentional late nighter but unless I doze off I may as well wait for the GFS and UKMO to come out around 4am.

You have either dozed af or fainted at the GFS. -3 and very pretty.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

You have either dozed af or fainted at the GFS. -3 and very pretty.

less than 48 hrs away....http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120128/00/45/h850t850eu.png

T144:

:o

[edo]

You have either dozed af or fainted at the GFS. -3 and very pretty.

Lol I'm visualising LS lying face down on laptop and waking up with a keyboard imprint on his cheek

[BleakMidwinter]

that November 2010 Easterly. The dry air mass flowing off the continental land shelf was a thing of beauty.. the draw of the cold air firing ENE then at 150 km pver the North sea whipping convection and carrying streamers forward... the hi res images were amazing as was the result.

My first experience of snow was when we moved up for the 79-80 winter in Edinburgh, and then I had to wait til That November 2010 Easterly to do it again - three soddin' decades of brief flurries of snow for a day or two and melting...!

Last year was the second time in my life that I've had weeks on end of lying snow and falling snow, knee-deep and beautiful. I'm not surprised the council eventually had to get the Army in because Edinburgh traditionally has been about as prepared for snow as London (think that's changed now!). People said the 1947 winter was the last time it really did that in Edinburgh. I remember a lot of snow in the 79-80 and just after, but it wasn't two foot deep and it didn't last six weeks.

If it does it again only once in my lifetime I'll be happy, but if it did it more, like maybe in the next couple of weeks, hint, hint, I'd be very happy!

Edinburgh frosty and sunny and rather beautifully wintry. XC says -2, pressure 1030 and 3mp SW. My cat says she's staying in and where is her second breakfast?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

While we wait in hope...

A wee vid to keep us entertained:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/16771041

Blizzards hit south-eastern Europe

[Hairy Celt]

Well well... I take a night off from the poot & that happens. Stunningly boring with NFS here.

Not heard any other reports of waxwings so not sure where NL's agronomoist stays?

Just cold & grey, groundhog day.

[over_the_rainbow]

Sour grapes this morning that Wales and England have had more snow than us Kilted Easters in 2012.... easily beaten as we have had nothing so far this year. And looking at the charts and the local MetO forecast for Perth this morning I'm not convinced we will see any over the next few days....well if we are lucky maybe sleet. It is lovely and frosty though.....and deep (deep) down I am pleased for the rest of the UK getting to see some snaw, just jealous lol!

[edo]

Sour grapes this morning that Wales and England have had more snow than us Kilted Easters in 2012.... easily beaten as we have had nothing so far this year. And looking at the charts and the local MetO forecast for Perth this morning I'm not convinced we will see any over the next few days....well if we are lucky maybe sleet. It is lovely and frosty though.....and deep (deep) down I am pleased for the rest of the UK getting to see some snaw, just jealous lol!

It is going to be cold enough in the next few days so just a question of precipitation....a chance tomorrow night / Monday as the warm front meets the cold air but there is a risk of that being marginal....however from tue onwards we will certainly see snow if get the precipitation.......stay tuned I'm sure the knowledgeable ones will give a good forecast later.....mayb even LS if he wakes from his halfnighter

[over_the_rainbow]

Cheers edodfc......I'm hoping one of the pro's is going to pop on and tell me not to fret and it's all going to be ok.

[edo]

Cheers edodfc......I'm hoping one of the pro's is going to pop on and tell me not to fret and it's all going to be ok.

Well I was fretting last week but we now finallyhave a decent prospect of snow and the easterly is coming and we always do well from that....I will be very surprised if we don't see something this week....already a little pocket popping up on NAE which may reach us tomorrow night http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

It's almost time to stop model watching and from tomorrow nite it's radar and lampost watch

Edited January 28, 2012 by edodfc

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh dear, appears I slept through all the fun of the gfs coming out! ECM builds strange shortwave in shallow FI otherwise great output? What I have noticed about the ECM is that isobars are often frayed and don't look as clear cut as the archive charts. Perhaps this is a result of that to an extent? Mild outlier anyway but it'd be nice to see it disappear on the 12z. Will update on short term potential later on after I've done some revision.

[Blizzardo]

I'd bank todays GFS 06z run. Battleground of mild v's cold with plenty snow for many parts of Scotland. Unlikely to verify but nice to see.

[sn0wman]

Yeah all the doom and gloom on the Model Thread, about the 6z being bad. Even if it came off (which it most likely won't, becasue it's statistically the worst GFS run), we would have constant heavy snow from Monday till Saturday/Sunday! Not bad, eh! :smilz38:

Edited January 28, 2012 by sn0wman

[Dalkeithsnow]

Getting a bit worried now. Fly out to Vegas on Thursday for five days, Just hoping that Edinburgh airport is going to be open or on the way back I'm I going to get stuck in Newark or Vegas. I've been praying for some snow since the start of the winter. I had a feeling this was going to happen. Or will I miss the big snow event.

[edo]

Yup despite gnashing of teeth in MT the 06 looking good for us on Tuesday http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120128;time=06;ext=81;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=71dcb25af78e8b7bf1a3ce9b4b41b5bb;

[A Winter's Tale]

Disapointed by latest GFS runs:

1) Any easterly is likely to be bone dry

2) It doesn't last long

3) The supposed "deceased" atlantic comes back

4) Latest GFS run shows the easterly hardly materialising

The battle will continue but I'm concerned that the easterly may not make it and if it does it may be dry and won't hang around for long due to the high being forced south and with little oppurtunity for cold beyond this.

Looks like this battle will continue and atlantic may not be dead after all.

[Guest]

I'd bank todays GFS 06z run. Battleground of mild v's cold with plenty snow for many parts of Scotland. Unlikely to verify but nice to see.

Hefty snow potential on that run...not a question of if, but a question of where and how much.

Although this fax chart is juicy too, the fronts have occluded and stalled (perhaps not quite in the right place though?). A good number of our heavy snowfall events come from this type of set-up.

[doctormog]

Bad? The 06z GFS? For Scotland it is stunning for much of the run.

[Guest]

A handy quick guide to fronts in case anyone is interested:

http://www.phschool.com/atschool/phsciexp/active_art/weather_fronts/

[blitzen]

Help!!! Said the other night that I wasn't going to look at any more charts but instead just read comments. This has turned out to be even more confusing! Started reading the outputs of the overnights as I noticed some big guns stayed up a-la Steve Murr, Chiono etc who appeared to be predicting armageddon with the 00z GFS in particular? Now all comments look like they are on a slip slide to a shorter, less potent cold spell. My head hurts!!!

[Liam J]

GFS 6z is a massive upgrade guys, usual cautions taking each run as gospel etc....

Snow event progged to start on Wednesday and last through until Sunday would deliver massive snowfalls!

Snow depths amounted between Wed and Sun

Temps