Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[edo]

Thanks Norrance much appreciated

[November13]

This is like heaven but can't see it coming off:

[JoeShmoe]

Great 12z's, would that easterly deliver up here, pressure looks high and slack isobars?

[edo]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1683.png

528 slipping nicely left here Norrance then the 510 approaching in the distance

This is like heaven but can't see it coming off:

lol now that would be a UK event....nice to see....unlikely but u never know.....be like the old harry Enfield (Everybodyyyyyyyyyyyyyyys Happpppppy)

[JoeShmoe]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

[lorenzo]

Well the UKMO and GFS 12z runs are off the scale... no need to select charts really. Just look through the whole thing !!

Actually would be rude not to post charts

You know this run is going to be a mild outlier...

Edited January 27, 2012 by lorenzo

[A Winter's Tale]

Quite an amazing run from GFS 12z!

Attempt No.1 which fails but it's good to see something earlier on.

Enter the start of the big freeze on the 2nd of February. -10C uppers in SE England - they will be buried!

-10C uppers arrive in Scotland so expect very low temperatures. Isobars aren't tightly packed so I can't really say what that chart would mean for snow.

-15C uppers in SE England! What an earth would that mean!

Scotland under -10C uppers and a strong Ely flow meaning lots of snow!!!!

And it continues with the east being burried and many other parts being badly hit.

Warmer uppers but still good enough for snow and the flow is good too! More snow for us Scots!

We then get a northerly - 10 days into the cold spell - this would make 4 consecutive winters in a row with a big freeze!

BUT! We need to wait for LSS to say whether this is feasable or not.

It does seem a tad extreme?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, I'll start with the bad news tonight - this looks like it could well be the eastern extent of the front http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/27/basis12/ukuk/prty/12012912_2712.gif

and at the moment the continental flow looks like being a bit slack at times http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012012712/UW96-21.GIF?27-17

On the plus side, even with a slack flow uppers like these would end up delivering fairly beefy snow showers, just not pushing particularly far inland

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/12/153/h850t850eu.png

Not to mention that IF the cold air backed that far west we'd be almost destined to get a shortwave appearing from nowhere to undercut the block and strengthen the flow

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/12/228/h850t850eu.png

and then a reload from the north http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/12/384/h500slp.png

The GFS 12Z is the COBRA run that Steve Murr has vaunted my friends, an absolutely stunning coldies wet dream. Worry about the slackness of the flow later - get the cold and the snow will follow the saying goes, even if it's only one big breakdown. We are undoubtedly in a far better position than we were 24 hours ago but there are still potential pitfalls awaiting us. I'd say my 51/49 in favour of cold is now about 70/30 in favour, but we need the models to finally settle on this outcome before we can properly do the ramping justice, for if the ECM 12Z looks anything like its 00Z or the GFS 12Z we're going to need a bigger ramp:

[spindrift1980]

MWIS refusing to get carried away on its medium-term outlook (the only bit that I like is 'very low freezing levels' and am not so keen on the highlighted section!):

"There is threat on western mountains, particularly in Scotland of dull, murky weather with the light snow (or lower down

drizzly) into next week, but cold air over the Continent may well then envelop at least England and Wales, and perhaps

intermittently Scotland, bringing very low freezing level, little precipitation and to some areas sunshine"

Would hope for a bit better than this, looking at the current charts....

[lorenzo]

Like this better...

[A Winter's Tale]

MWIS refusing to get carried away on its medium-term outlook (the only bit that I like is 'very low freezing levels' and am not so keen on the highlighted section!):

"There is threat on western mountains, particularly in Scotland of dull, murky weather with the light snow (or lower down

drizzly) into next week, but cold air over the Continent may well then envelop at least England and Wales, and perhaps

intermittently Scotland, bringing very low freezing level, little precipitation and to some areas sunshine"

Would hope for a bit better than this, looking at the current charts....

I don't think there is any need to worry about snow in a cold spell that hasn't started yet. Get the cold first and the snow will follow - if this cold spell does occur it could be around for a while. Eventually the flow will get stronger and bring snow across much of the country if we succeed in getting the cold. Also, this set up would bring very cold temperatures which can be just as good as having snow!

[Cheggers]

I take it the Polar Bears on Svalbard are possibly getting some new hunting grounds then?

Cold and crystal clear all afternoon, temp down to 1c

[BleakMidwinter]

Also, this set up would bring very cold temperatures which can be just as good as having snow!

I'd settle for clear cold days if I really can't have snow [sob, sob].

Edinburgh is, as usual, just a medium day with medium temps, medium light breeze and medium sunlight. No ppn at all. Sigh....

[Hairy Celt]

Cracking day out today, geese flying hither & thither:

'George, where's that field?'

'Dunno, Grace, didn't you switch your GPS on?'

'For fook's sake George, we're geese!'

'Sheet, Grace, I thought we were a medium-range ground assault squadron...'

'You've been listening to those silly air to air attack harriers again!'

Plenty of small beasties on the loose too - all hoarding for the imminent endless winter.

Edited January 27, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[lorenzo]

Rampede aside looking through the GEFS suite it is clear the GFS control run was one of the colder solutions, let's not fuss too much about that though and enjoy some of the charts within..

Looking forward to seeing what the ECM does this evening......

[LomondSnowstorm]

MWIS refusing to get carried away on its medium-term outlook (the only bit that I like is 'very low freezing levels' and am not so keen on the highlighted section!):

"There is threat on western mountains, particularly in Scotland of dull, murky weather with the light snow (or lower down

drizzly) into next week, but cold air over the Continent may well then envelop at least England and Wales, and perhaps

intermittently Scotland, bringing very low freezing level, little precipitation and to some areas sunshine"

Would hope for a bit better than this, looking at the current charts....

What I would say about this is that easterlies are different. It's notoriously difficult to predict whether an easterly will be dry or snowy, even at 24 hours notice. We're talking about (well for the initial southeasterly flow) over 48 hours out, so until we're into nowcasting range with full model agreement over the exact positioning of uppers and fronts I'm reluctant to either talk up or talk down snowfall. The warm front however is easier to call - ahead of it snow, behind it rain, but it might not even make it as far west as the Clyde. The important thing for the moment is that the POTENTIAL is there for major snowfall, that's the main thing, and the details are going to be elusive for a few days yet.

[moffatross]

^

Yes indeed, I'm also not surprise by Geoff Monk's reluctance to ramp either. Neither the progress of the warm frontal snow (or rain) Sunday into Monday nor the position or longevity of the WAA to Scandinavia is determined yet. MWIS is a serious organisation forecasting essential information for the now rather than speculating on longer term options. They've been stung many times by the unexpected.

Having said that, just looking at the 12Z ECM coming out and it is looking encouraging for the frontal stuff Sunday night into Monday.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

What I would say about this is that easterlies are different. It's notoriously difficult to predict whether an easterly will be dry or snowy, even at 24 hours notice. We're talking about (well for the initial southeasterly flow) over 48 hours out, so until we're into nowcasting range with full model agreement over the exact positioning of uppers and fronts I'm reluctant to either talk up or talk down snowfall. The warm front however is easier to call - ahead of it snow, behind it rain, but it might not even make it as far west as the Clyde. The important thing for the moment is that the POTENTIAL is there for major snowfall, that's the main thing, and the details are going to be elusive for a few days yet.

Och c'mon - if the Daily Express has picked up on this then it's nailded on!

http://www.express.c...eeze-to-grip-UK-

WINTER IS HERE... FOUR-WEEK SIBERIAN FREEZE TO GRIP UK

:lol:

EDIT.

Just checked the latest run out from the DMM. Its showing the same as the DEM out to 1 month.

http://www.dailymail...es-Britain.html

Winter’s here! Parts of Britain wake to snowy scenes as icy Siberian blasts blows in… and it’s due to last a MONTH

Edited January 27, 2012 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

Och c'mon - if the Daily Express has picked up on this then it's nailded on!

http://www.express.c...eeze-to-grip-UK-

WINTER IS HERE... FOUR-WEEK SIBERIAN FREEZE TO GRIP UK

:lol:

EDIT.

Just checked the latest run out from the DMM. Its showing the same as the DEM out to 1 month.

http://www.dailymail...es-Britain.html

Winter’s here! Parts of Britain wake to snowy scenes as icy Siberian blasts blows in… and it’s due to last a MONTH

I know, for the first time ever I think people at school were asking me whether there was going to be a Siberian 'storm' next week. I patiently explained the situation, background factors and showed them the latest runs. After they looked blankly at me, I just showed them the 00Z ECM uppers chart on meteociel, to which they replied 'so it's going to be cold then?' 'Yeah, probably.'

Landmark moment for the winter here: the first trough in an easterly flow heading towards Scotland:

[Big Innes Madori]

I know, for the first time ever I think people at school were asking me whether there was going to be a Siberian 'storm' next week. I patiently explained the situation, background factors and showed them the latest runs. After they looked blankly at me, I just showed them the 00Z ECM uppers chart on meteociel, to which they replied 'so it's going to be cold then?' 'Yeah, probably.'

Landmark moment for the winter here: the first trough in an easterly flow heading towards Scotland:

Will that move in a WNW direction LS

Big Innes

[LomondSnowstorm]

Will that move in a WNW direction LS

Big Innes

If that flow continues up to +96 hours then yes,but we'll find out in our evening installment of that classic drama ' The FAX Charts'. I think the main development tonight may be that TEITS himself is actually the guy drawing the charts and moving everything slightly further west every evening to support his own easterly agenda...

[lorenzo]

Well mayhem galore courtesy of the 12z.. Meteociel blew up lol! Looking at the Ensembles you can see the spilt among the members beginning on later Weds > Thurs. Across the 144 the pattern is clear, FI this evening looks beyond this, so charts from here.

GEM first out of the blocks on the 00z maintains the flow, matched by UKMO,NOGAPs everything trumped by the GFS.

GEM / UKMO / NOGAPS

GFS

ECM not as good the Scandi high does not move west from here.

Fax charts are fun to play through to see a front to an quick about turn running into the block @ 24-36hrs.

Other highlights..

Serious cold in Siberia Europe courtesy of the GFS..

And this... what a chart...

Edited January 27, 2012 by lorenzo

[Big Innes Madori]

If that flow continues up to +96 hours then yes,but we'll find out in our evening installment of that classic drama ' The FAX Charts'. I think the main development tonight may be that TEITS himself is actually the guy drawing the charts and moving everything slightly further west every evening to support his own easterly agenda...

Dave was the first person I ever seen use the term "The Beast From The East"

Big Innes

Edited January 27, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[Big Innes Madori]

Well mayhem galore courtesy of the 12z.. Meteociel blew up lol! Looking at the Ensembles you can see the spilt among the members beginning on later Weds > Thurs. Across the 144 the pattern is clear, FI this evening looks beyond this, so charts from here.

GEM first out of the blocks on the 00z maintains the flow, matched by UKMO,NOGAPs everything trumped by the GFS.

GEM / UKMO / NOGAPS

GFS

ECM not as good the Scandi high does not move west from here.

Fax charts are fun to play through to see a front to an quick about turn running into the block @ 24-36hrs.

Other highlights..

Serious cold in Siberia Europe courtesy of the GFS..

And this... what a chart...

Surely that last Chart would be of Biblical Proportions Lorenzo

Big Innes

[edo]

Brilliant analysis LSS and biglorenzo.....exciting times for TOWIE the only way is east