Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[sn0wman]

I know, for the first time ever I think people at school were asking me whether there was going to be a Siberian 'storm' next week. I patiently explained the situation, background factors and

showed them the latest runs. After they looked blankly at me, I just showed them the 00Z ECM uppers chart on meteociel, to which they replied 'so it's going to be cold then?' 'Yeah, probably.'

Landmark moment for the winter here: the first trough in an easterly flow heading towards Scotland:

Could that bring a bit of snow to us, if it came off?

[lorenzo]

Yep, that last chart Big Innes is the one we would all draw if we wanted the best shot at winter.. failing that would always draw this one..

A brilliant guide here from TWS, refers to the Scandi high as the holy grail of charts...

[A Winter's Tale]

GP really does need to be given huge praise for what has been the best forecast for the winter. Even if the easterly never happens he got the Scandi Hi spot on for February.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yep, that last chart Big Innes is the one we would all draw if we wanted the best shot at winter.. failing that would always draw this one..

A brilliant guide here from TWS, refers to the Scandi high as the holy grail of charts...

I'd like to expand on that - the omega high is the holy grail of blocks - a Scandi high with bells on as it retrogresses to Iceland and then Greenland. Negative guaranteed out of that.

[A Winter's Tale]

I'd like to expand on that - the omega high is the holy grail of blocks - a Scandi high with bells on as it retrogresses to Iceland and then Greenland. Negative guaranteed out of that.

We know that the Scandi Hi will be present in the coming weeks but do you see any potential in heights over Greenland or over the mid atlantic? It would be great to have one block followed by another. But first of all, we've got the block and cold air to our east and we need to see if we do get an easterly, then the cold, then the snow and then see how long it lasts!

Any predictions anyone?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Could that bring a bit of snow to us, if it came off?

I think you'd be at the western edge of any easterly in the next 72 hours given how slack the flow is but potentially, given that it's an organised feature and not just a wee flurry, it could end up giving a covering quite widely east of Harthill(ish).

[LomondSnowstorm]

We know that the Scandi Hi will be present in the coming weeks but do you see any potential in heights over Greenland or over the mid atlantic? It would be great to have one block followed by another. But first of all, we've got the block and cold air to our east and we need to see if we do get an easterly, then the cold, then the snow and then see how long it lasts!

Any predictions anyone?

I think it's quite straightforward really - if it doesn't sink, it'll eventually retrogress to Greenland, and at the moment even the less than brilliant ECM doesn't want to sink it....

Positive anomalies transferring into the mid atlantic in the mid term from Azores which is positive for keeping the block but makes it a bit tougher for the jet to undercut. However, the stability of the block is the key at the moment and that cold pool over Europe isn't going to dry up quickly.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This spell of model watching has proven once again why we can't just hand over the keys to the met office to computer models. Personal experience of easterlies combined with a dilligent watching of analysis charts and mesoscale models allowed people like Dave (TEITS) to correctly predict that the pattern was initially being forecast too far east. Those who claimed that beat the models - the shortwave was initially progged by some of the models to head off to Denmark. In 8 hours it will be sitting over Dunkerque http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/18/12/h500slp.png

Regardless of what happens after that, we can safely say that even with our supposedly advanced computer technology and a GFS that was upgrade 2 years ago, model guidance is only as good as the forecaster interpreting it.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/18/72/h850t850eu.png

Incidentally, the pub run does in fact look to be an upgrade on the 12Z http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/18/141/h850t850eu.png

Remarkable consistency, staggering really, -10C uppers within 6 days now with everything a bit further northwest.

We're gonna need a bigger ramp again....

[A Winter's Tale]

Look at the jet stream going directly north through Greenland as it squashed between heights over Scandinavia and Canada/Atlantic. -10C uppers coming in earlier and -15C uppers are nearer on this run.

[A Winter's Tale]

Although the weather we would experience around 2nd/3rd of February would be AMAZING, what's concerning me is the southward movement of the high and low pressure to the north of it. That area of high pressure over Eastern Canada is moving east too!

Edited January 27, 2012 by Campsie Snow Storm

[LomondSnowstorm]

Although the weather we would experience around 2nd/3rd of February would be AMAZING, what's concerning me is the southward movement of the high and low pressure to the north of it. That area of high pressure over Eastern Canada is moving east too!

Too far out to worry. We've just seen two consecutive runs by the same model that bring >-12C uppers over us for over 36 hours. It doesn't matter how high pressure is or if the flow's a bit weak, you would get an absolute tonne of snow to eastern areas and probably some systems reaching western areas. It had support from the parallel control run and the parallel ensembles. Historically cold charts appearing tonight. Let's hope they're still they're by morning and with a tad bit more troughing over Europe.

[Northernlights]

My agonomist e mailed me today looking for a weather chat as he knows I am a bit interested and so was able to tell him that things are begining to look colder for the next week!!!.We got on to discussing signs in nature and he told me a few days ago a flock of about 200 Waxwings decended on his garden and stripped every berry in the space of an hour and then just left.

[A Winter's Tale]

Yes beyond 160hrs it's all nonsense and a complete mess. Heard that some on the model thread think that the high may well retrogress towards Iceland and Greenland. But I think the clear picture is that in the coming week or two we will see a decent easterly, details beyond that are unclear.

Between 45hrs and 78 hrs we have an attempt for an easterly. It will fail, but at least the attempt is almost guaranteed.

Between 126hrs and 228hrs we are in an incredible cold spell.

Looking at the low pressure in the above chart, you can easily tell that beyond 170hrs is nonsense. Hopefully the models hasn't got an idea of where to put the low pressure systems resulting in retrogression to Iceland.

But as soon as this time next week we could be enoying this. That chart is more likely to verify than the post 180hrs. Also look at the high pressure over Canada, could it end up over Greenland.

So it's a very good output tonight. Easterly looking very likely and a potential classic is on the cards. I'm pretty sure that these uppers would have been colder than the best of the past 3 winters. Also, other positives is that easterly is almost in a reliable time frame and other details determining what will prevail are unclear. So an easterly looks likely and depending on the positioning of the jet and movement of the block, we could enjoy retreogression to Greenland.

Very exciting times indeed!

LS - what would this chart show for us!!!!

[lorenzo]

Bewildering. Just when you thought it got as good as it gets the 18z delivers an upgrade.. Sensational.

2 weeks worth of muddling through a quagmire of knife edge modelling well worth the delivery from 16:00 today onwards..

[snowy owl]

Would stay up longer to stare in awe at the charts but have a cold sore appearing (a sign?). so i'm turning in. Here's to tomorrows output!!!

The flocking waxwings are indeed a sign of movement from northern scandanavia/Russia as there isn't enough food to sustain them through cold weather so they are heading south! Definitely a weather related sign.

[LomondSnowstorm]

My agonomist e mailed me today looking for a weather chat as he knows I am a bit interested and so was able to tell him that things are begining to look colder for the next week!!!.We got on to discussing signs in nature and he told me a few days ago a flock of about 200 Waxwings decended on his garden and stripped every berry in the space of an hour and then just left.

Bill Foggit and the waxwings in 1947 is probably the classic example of plucky amateurs reliant on looking at nature beating the Met Office. Cause and effect comes into it though - I'd imagine they were fleeing the intense cold approaching from continental Europe and Scandinavia http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/18/09/maxtemp.png

A clear indication of the cold backing west...

[Guest]

I dunno, I go to England for lunch and come back to snowmageddon!! Will try and catch up with the mayhem in the morning :lol:

[Cheggers]

I dunno, I go to England for lunch and come back to snowmageddon!! Will try and catch up with the mayhem in the morning :lol:

And they let you in?

-2c and everything sparkling

[lorenzo]

Steve Murr pointed out Saturdays runs as the coldest of the week, this evening may have caught him by suprise with the -25C coming into effect on the de bilt ensembles, the 12z was far enough,18z off the hook - cannot even picture things much colder than this tonight. GFS 12z to 18z looked last night that it was playing catch up with the jet profile and today skipped forward a notch again.. If he is right and I wouldn't discount it then expect 1k viewers on MT and Meteociel to crash again !

I wish I had last years Satellite pics saved for that November 2010 Easterly. The dry air mass flowing off the continental land shelf was a thing of beauty.. the draw of the cold air firing ENE then at 150 km pver the North sea whipping convection and carrying streamers forward... the hi res images were amazing as was the result.

A slow burner this winter but its been worth it this evening watching model runs like this truly deliver. As everything fell into place for a mild regime, it has flipped perfectly for the opposite..

That GLAAM change monumental, and there is an MJO signal in the post for the latter of Feb too. Superb. GP.Chi and OMM all deserve credit for calling this , GP at range, Chi for the Strat and his long standing forecast OMM for seeing the Jet changes 8 days out on WV imagery. Nice.

Edited January 27, 2012 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

Steve Murr pointed out Saturdays runs as the coldest of the week, this evening may have caught him by suprise with the -25C coming into effect on the de bilt ensembles, the 12z was far enough,18z off the hook - cannot even picture things much colder than this tonight. GFS 12z to 18z looked last night that it was playing catch up with the jet profile and today skipped forward a notch again.. If he is right and I wouldn't discount it then expect 1k viewers on MT and Meteociel to crash again !

I wish I had last years Satellite pics saved for that November 2010 Easterly. The dry air mass flowing off the continental land shelf was a thing of beauty.. the draw of the cold air firing ENE then at 150 km pver the North sea whipping convection and carrying streamers forward... the hi res images were amazing as was the result.

That image is from the 27th, the Saturday, after the first snowfall but before the easterly really kicked off overnight into the 28th.

Edited January 28, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[andy100]

Mon eh snow !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snowmess]

Bring on winter!

Better late than never, huh?

[Northern Strath]

I see google are celebrating the anniversary of the largest recorded snowflake, bit random, but a good omen I hope!

"Largest snowflake ever observed: 38 centimeters (15 in) in diameter; Fort Keogh, Montana, United States, 1887-01-28"

That was'nt a snowflake that was a bl**dy snowplate!! If it landed on some bald guys bonce then im fairly sure we can assume that today we should also be celebrating the invention of the toupee aswell?

Mighty chilly outside, think Mr Red Squirrel will struggle again to play with his nuts in the morning

Happy toupee Day

Edited January 28, 2012 by Northern Strath

[lorenzo]

Brilliant even the mighty Google loves a bit of the GFS ramp action..

Cranking in with a Winter home page and 125th anniversary records.

If you haven't posted before in the thread, please say hello it is a great time to start the chat about the Weather

Edited January 28, 2012 by lorenzo

[andy100]

its snowing w00p w00p