The Midlands, East Anglia & The 3 Counties Regional Discussion - Part 5

[A.J]

This is mainly to ajpoolshark and snow? Norfolk n chance, what dyou recon the ppm type will be here - about 4ish we had some rain and I saw some sleety flakes in it don't know about you two I'm 170m asl.

I'm not sure to be honest, I know it sounds cliched, but probably a 'wintry mix'

[Hughsey]

The 12z GFS is an absolutely insane run for coldies, easterlies kicking in at around T48, gathering strength and continuing throughout the run then morphing into a northerly right in the outer reaches of FI...I do suspect it's an outlier and would expect the ensembles to show this shortly...If not, then we're in the freezer big time and will stay there for the forseeable future....The UKMO 12z output (which goes out to T144) agrees broadly with the GFS run...for those who have access to the model outputs, the 2 key elements are the huge russian high migrating westwards and setting up shop over Sweden/Finland (air moves clockwise around the high) and low pressure anchored developing and anchoring over the central Meditteranean (air moves anticlockwise around the low) this process draws the frigid air which is situated further to the east westwards towards and eventually over the UK....An interesting wait now for the 12z ECMWF output which rolls out in the next hour......again, a word of caution, the cold/wintry spell is not locked in yet, but if the models are still in general agreement by this time tomorrow, it will be

Certainly is a fantastic run, but what concerns me slightly is that we would potentially see quite dryish weather meaning little in the way of snow, from an IMBY perspective though I am in a pretty good location if we can get lots of showers moving in from the North sea.

A few talking about there being lots of wintry convection around Sunday night so might be something to look out for, although I havent heard much said about this, anyone got any thoughts on sunday night into monday?

[Bolton67]

Just saw the GFS and the UKmeto 12z

Astonished, absolute astonished.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This is mainly to ajpoolshark and snow? Norfolk n chance, what dyou recon the ppm type will be here - about 4ish we had some rain and I saw some sleety flakes in it don't know about you two I'm 170m asl.

I would say at 170m asl, sleet/wet snow especially 15 mins before clearing away, 103m asl rain

[Gary-North Stoke]

Here we go again with the Slow response from YTS boy at the MetO. Yellow Warning forSnow for the West Midlands, valid from 10.00-19.00 issued at 17.01 ???????

[Sprites]

East anglia may up end with grey cold weather with a few snow pellets, and a massive heating bill, sun and showers is prefered really.

[cyclonic happiness]

The 12z was one heck of an outlier, but the mean is still around -6'c so it's looking extremely good for next week.

The band moving south atm, is it snow or sleet?

[A.J]

The 12z was one heck of an outlier, but the mean is still around -6'c so it's looking extremely good for next week.

The band moving south atm, is it snow or sleet?

rain here

[Hughsey]

Here we go again with the Slow response from YTS boy at the MetO. Yellow Warning forSnow for the West Midlands, valid from 10.00-19.00 issued at 17.01 ???????

Lol, fair enough them issuing a warning a few hours later than they should, but why even bother backdating it 7 hours, makes them look like idiots lol.

[conor123]

UKMO 12z an upgrade in snow potential Sunday-Monday showing precipitation much further easter, GFS has it really close but not quite east enough still.

[sarah7meme]

I'm lost

Is this the thread for Kent? Been in southern thread for past month !

Maybe why I am not confident I will see snow.

Tell me if this is my area please !

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think threads should be split now, as E anglia and 3 counties likely to see miles more snow if beast arrives

[Hughsey]

think threads should be split now, as E anglia and 3 counties likely to see miles more snow if beast arrives

Yeah I agree, although I like how this thread is quite busy, once the wintry weather really arrives it will be necessary though.

[Staffordshire]

Aha went out to get some chips, got caught in HEAVY rain but no snow ATM...

I would say at 170m asl, sleet/wet snow especially 15 mins before clearing away, 103m asl rain

[Gord]

The showers today have been far less impressive than yesterday...although the cloud structures have been top class again!

No sleet or hail today sadly....but in the grand scheme of things, and considering what might be coming...I think my little moan can be forgotten for now!

Edit: Although this latest shower seems a bit more sleety!

Edited January 27, 2012 by Gord

[Gary-North Stoke]

More local regional threads are being reopened later on.

[Gord]

From where I work in Blackheath, I could certainly see anvils to my south and east. Looked wonderful too. I think the sky was quite photogenic today!

Sounds like you got the goods from underneath and I got the view!

[PolarWarsaw]

Not such a great ECM this evening, but nothing too dis-heartning. Now to get this front to straddle over the midlands on Sunday.

[A.J]

think threads should be split now, as E anglia and 3 counties likely to see miles more snow if beast arrives

Yeah I agree, although I like how this thread is quite busy, once the wintry weather really arrives it will be necessary though.

see my earlier posts chaps......when we (forum team) get a bit of spare time then we'll sort it!

[huntso]

Sound battle stations, diverting all power to the St Ives snow shield

Edited January 27, 2012 by huntso

[Terminal Moraine]

A thin cover of snow lying here after early evening showers which have just cleared to the south. About 5cm of lying snow above 400m a few miles north. I just need it to freeze now so that it lasts until observation time tomorrow morning.

[Gord]

I think getting the front in the right place on Sunday is a very long shot for this part of the country. There was mention last night of it being at the wrong angle to be any use here and I assume this is still the case. Not impossible for something to happen though. I would hope to see something wintry in nature during the event though.

Still...lots of optimism and a lot to look out for in the near future hopefully.

[Costa Del Fal]

I think getting the front in the right place on Sunday is a very long shot for this part of the country. There was mention last night of it being at the wrong angle to be any use here and I assume this is still the case. Not impossible for something to happen though. I would hope to see something wintry in nature during the event though.

Still...lots of optimism and a lot to look out for in the near future hopefully.

Going by the Fax charts the front wont get anywhere near here anyway. The cold looks like easily winning out in the short term at least.

[Gord]

Going by the Fax charts the front wont get anywhere near here anyway. The cold looks like easily winning out in the short term at least.

Just got myself updated with everything..(I think!) and I see what you mean. Cold and grey Sunday then. Good for walking the dog I suppose.

Back to the now and it is throwing it down out there!

[Bolton67]

I'm still in awe at the GFS 12Z... it had at one stage -17 uppers in this part of the mids.

-17 uppers