The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[conor123]

Indeed i'd rather take my chances with marginal weather fronts than a cold but bone dry easterly like the ECM shows.

UKMO is currently best for snow Sunday Night/Monday, it's just going to be a case of hoping the heavier stuff pushes in enough to allow for evaporative cooling.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Think there is sure gonna be a lot of teeth-chattering in the next day, or so, seeing how far this rain, sleet and snow reaches. Chances are, the snow will probably just hide from us. But just you wait, snow! - You will never escape from us. We'll find you... and bring ya over to the Midlands. (Mwha ha ha ha ha). ;-)

[Gord]

Looking at the forecast on

www.xcweather.co.uk

It's got Birmingham airport as a bit of light rain tomorrow and Cosford and Shawbury as a mix of light rain and snow. These forecasts use GFS for their data..and I'm not convinced on their level of accuracy either.

Fantastic site for current conditions though.

Edited January 28, 2012 by Gord

[MKN]

For central parts of the midlands Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham this whole outlook looks fairly dry. Highly unlikely to get hit from the west yet to far west for anything from the east!

[Gord]

As I've said earlier on other threads, we've gone into other cold spells with a much drier outlook then we're looking at now in the Midlands and have still got last minute snow events.

It could stay dry throughout and I agree that there is a lot of evidence to suggest that...and if that happens, I'm more than prepared to hold my hands up. However, it's best to take things 1-2 days at a time. Going to see what happens tomorrow into Monday first....and afterwards see where we go from there.

I'd never give up on snow in a cold spell until either one of these 2 things happen:

1. It's raining and over 6C in a strong south westerly wind.

2. May

Edited January 28, 2012 by Gord

[Gord]

Something we're missing right now.

Looks like there's a good chance of some freezing fog tonight which would make for a wonderful wintry start tomorrow.

[MKN]

Or 3. You live in Leicestershire

[conor123]

12z is slightly better than the 06z as precipitation doesn't arrive until Late Sunday Night/Monday Morning when temperature's will be much colder, how far it will actually make it into the region though remains questionable.

[syed2878]

Had alook at the met forecast for brum just before i came on here and there's no snow forecast for brum for the next 5day's.

[Mrsf16]

Or 3. You live in Leicestershire

Or Peterborough! xxx

[Gord]

The Met Office have taken snow out of our forecast completely now. I suspect they may leave the warning in though, just to cover themseves.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECMWF model massive improvement, but snow does look for south only, need the mediterranean low further north, but 00Z ecmwf had 10oC so miles better

[Costa Del Fal]

Rather confusing situation about the next 2 days. I think we can safely say nothing will reach our region at any point tomorrow but it seems there may be an extra push on Monday which may bring light snow to us especially West of Birmingham, Nothing to get too excited about mind but better than the zilch weve had all winter!

Meanwhile, tonight will see cold temperatures and fog. Hoar frost may be?

[Gord]

I'm really hoping for a hoar frost tonight. One of the absolute 'musts' of a good winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm really hoping for a hoar frost tonight. One of the absolute 'musts' of a good winter.

and me, 6-7 Dec 2010, class!

[Costa Del Fal]

and me, 6-7 Dec 2010, class!

Beautiful frosts they were. They made even the ugliest places look stunning.

[Hughsey]

I'm really hoping for a hoar frost tonight. One of the absolute 'musts' of a good winter.

What are the needed conditions for a hoar frost, just out of interest?

[A.J]

hmm, my thoughts on todays 12z outputs are simply put, we're in the freezer, localized snow but mainly dry in the short to medium term............personally? not my cup of tea at all, I have to work outside in that 8-14 hours a day, not looking forward to that at all...I would have preferred the 06z runs which would have brought snowfests to the west midlands, the snow would be pretty to look at and help take my mind away from the bone numbing cold!....

Edited January 28, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Bolton67]

Well if the ECM came off this place would be in meltdown. love how the ECM ended with the high over Greenland.

If it does come off (big if) Then Take a bow GP... just like you forecasted.

[Gord]

What are the needed conditions for a hoar frost, just out of interest?

Not 100% sure. Something to do with objects being colder than the air itself.

Wikipedia expains:

http://en.wikipedia....rost#Hoar_frost

This may actually be more useful

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_rime

Surprised at how many different kinds of frost there are!

In fact, thinking about it, is it correct to call the stuff from freezing fog 'hoar frost'?

Edited January 28, 2012 by Gord

[Hughsey]

Not 100% sure. Something to do with objects being colder than the air itself.

Wikipedia expains:

http://en.wikipedia....rost#Hoar_frost

This may actually be more useful

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_rime

Surprised at how many different kinds of frost there are!

In fact, thinking about it, is it correct to call the stuff from freezing fog 'hoar frost'?

Interesting, thanks.

[A.J]

looks bone dry now here for the next few days...ECM & GFS keep that stalled out front to the west, they only model ppn to the welsh borders....about 20 miles away!

[Gord]

Yes, things going to back to how they looked yesterday with regards to snow (or lack of it) in the next 48 hours. Looks like the models today were a blip...only a tiny one but enough to change what we get down here on the ground.

So dry, cloudy and cold is the theme...which is what we were agreed on yesterday anyway.

Edited January 28, 2012 by Gord

[Bolton67]

I'm on the Northampton to Cleveland run next week, so i'll be sleeping in the cab of my lorry.

Do you think i'll need my thremals?

[Costa Del Fal]

That precip over Ireland already looks to be really struggling to make any more progress East at the moment. Whilst this is not the main batch, I wouldnt be surprised if even Wales struggles to see most of the precip tomorrow now.