The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[Gary-North Stoke]

Eyes to the east,PPN pepping up from the east heading west, better chance of catching summat from these showers than waiting for that lot out to the west of us making its way inland.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looks like the Met Office 3 to 5 day outlook do not even mention anything about isolated light wintry showers now for the next few days, although if we do get cold enough uppers, then any wintry showers that develop to the East could hopefully reach here - especially later in the week if we can get a strong enough Easterly wind.

Otherwise there's that possibilty of Atlantic Lows crashing through to the South, so we still end up with prolonged snow/showery snow on the Low's Northern flank with cold air winning, just like on this chart (with a Low tracking to the South):

Though even then, I agree with posts I have read on here in the past few days that snow events could just pop out of nowhere anyway.

Edited January 29, 2012 by Rainbow Snow

[Barbmac]

This is my last picture of the day from higher up on the Malverns looking due west. You can see the mist rising, no sign of snow.

[Gord]

We're going to have to keep being patient I'm afraid, but we are in the same boat as most of England for now (exception being the north-east at the moment).

That lot to the west simply isn't coming and is already retreating to the south and west. Anything to the east will not even get close. We're in a bit of a no mans land.

But one day at a time...lets see how things look again by the end of tomorrow.

[Costa Del Fal]

Oh Dear, GFS and UKMO sinking the high by next weekend now and the Atlantic easily winning as the low does not undercut. Hopefully not the start of a new trend but with this you can pretty much forget snow chances except leading edge of the Atlantic system. Massively different charts without the undercut.

Plenty of time for change but not what we want to see.

[conor123]

No shocks to see things going to pot as usual, never got my hopes up for this cold spell anyway, im still expecting a cold dry frosty week before business as usual returns.

[Gord]

Indeed, quite concerning after what we have seen so far. Lets wait and see before we start dismissing what lies ahead as a short cold snap.

I don't think we're quite at the stage where the credibility of winter 2011/2012 hangs on this...but as time passes each let down will get more and more frustrating.

Hopefully, that will not be the case and we'll see things turn back again very soon.

[Staffordshire]

Just imagine if the cold won out where the gfs is showing on 4th feb... Snowmagedon!

But as I have said all along we seem to be chasing the snow but not actually getting it!

Edited January 29, 2012 by Staffordshire

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looks increasingly likely that the general flow aloft is going to be rather slack during next week, so wintry showers inland looking highly unlikely, currently. In terms of the showers, the environment from mid-week onwards on current model output from the GFS and MET-GM doesn't look particularly unstable, with the upper (500hPa) heights and associated cold pool remaining relatively high.

Ah, thanks for that. :-) Looks like a dry week it's going to be then, unless, I suppose, we get some sudden changes.

[cyclonic happiness]

Very frustrating to see that the cold spell has been killed off from the rear forwards, will we never get a proper winter again?

This is the worst place for snow in Britain!

Stll, I get my new moyorbike next week, so hopefully we'll have some nice warm weather so I can go and play

[Costa Del Fal]

In a way I want this winter to go completely snowless as then it really cant get any worse than this in future and would prove how pathetic most of our winters are.

Sadly, huge agreement on the cold easily getting shunted away by the weekend. Why can the cold never put up a decent fight? The Atlantic always wins!

Model summary tonight: Hurry up Spring and Summer!

:lol:

Of course though, much will probably change and Im not writing off this week. Anyone who does right now is foolish.

[The Wolf]

Oh well. Game over!

[A.J]

interesting outputs from the GFS & UKMO, certainly caused uproar in the model output thread, but whereas some posters say that there's no way the GFS/UKMO can flip so suddenly and verify might need to eat a slice of 'reality pie' because it was only 48 hour ago that there was general agreement that going into FI (t192) at that stage, that the synoptic patterns were messy and if anything the output was leaning towards High Pressure sinking into eastern europe, yet 12 hours later, the models did a 180 degree flip and put us all in the freezer....maybe the output over the past 24-36 hours has simply been a wobble, and the sinking HP previously modeled was always going to be on the cards?

[conor123]

Yes I'm fairly certain that high pressure will build over us through the week and then sink next weekend allowing a return to the normal South Westerlys.

Our best hope is that the block is being underestimated and we get a snowy breakdown out of it although something tells me it will just sink and were be in double figures again by this time next week :lol:, its all looking very mid February 2007 failure again.

Edited January 29, 2012 by conor123

[PolarWarsaw]

Yep poor models today and this afternoon especially. If these runs were to verify, it'd be a chilly few days mostly sunny before the breakdown comes around the weekend. Doesn't look particularly snowy breakdown either. The winter of 2012 would be and IMO will be one to add to the books of the 'worst winters in recent years'.

[Gord]

Winner of the most frustrating place to be today: Hereford

[I remember Atlantic 252]

good few dry days coming up then, Radders I know you live near there, but today I could see the steam from rugeley power station, moving across my way, was cloudy to my SE because of it, looks like a cumulus

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh well. Game over!

Oh great!the ECM has put a spanner in the works and prolonged the easterly again! what the f*** is going on??? Where's my Xanax?!!!

[conor123]

I would actually put a bet on the JMA being right in the end even though it's not a main model it seems the most realistic given our luck.

[fizz511]

Well I don't know which model 'The Weather Channel' website uses, but theyre showing snow for here for 6th & 7th Feb (updated 19.05 hrs).

Wonder if they're behind the times or know something we don't?!

[The Wolf]

Well I don't know which model 'The Weather Channel' website uses, but theyre showing snow for here for 6th & 7th Feb (updated 19.05 hrs).

Wonder if they're behind the times or know something we don't?!

The trouble is it's always days away and then when it gets near the time frame something like today happens and we end up with

nothing!

[Hooverman]

Sat praying for snow. 2.0c 99% latest obs from my weatherstation.

[Bolton67]

I'm not looking at anything later than T+96 at the moment anything later than that can go in the bin.

The trouble is it's always days away and then when it gets near the time frame something like today happens and we end up with

nothing!

Tomorrow might show things totally different.

[Bolton67]

Even if there's bitterly cold temperatures and heavy, widespread snow being projected? :winky:

Yep, once bitten twice shy.

[Derbyshire_snow]

http://www.buxtonweather.co.uk/ Snowing in Buxton it's also snowing in the higher parts of Sheffield too.