The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[Mrsf16]

Hmmm, that PPN around the Lincolnshire coast is so slow moving, it's frustrating. I've seen Lada's move faster than that.

Disipating faster than it's moving Wont hit me, let alone you !

[snowmadchrisuk]

Sadly, it looks increasingly like the only real snow we may see will be a transient battleground affair. Bloody hell I hope im wrong.

hugh battleground event then a Cold reload soon after may be good though as them low Temps will take a while to recover , Not often at this time of year you here the Words Mild and North West though lol

[Nick L]

In the absence of Ian Brown, someone has to say it...snow everywhere except Staffordshire and Shropshire.

I'll bugger off back down south

hmm....good question....I'm presuming it's a snapshot, run at a resolution of 3 hourly frames, just as the higher-resolution NMM model runs in hourly frames

This is true I believe. Except the min/max temperature charts which I THINK are for the 3 hours leading up to that time.

And about that front across the east, the fax charts show it as a decaying occluded front (hence the dashes through it), don't get your hopes up with that. By the time it gets inland it will be little more than a bank of cloud and a few wintry flurries.

Edited January 30, 2012 by Nick L

[A.J]

In the absence of Ian Brown, someone has to say it...snow everywhere except Staffordshire and Shropshire.

I'll bugger off back down south

This is true I believe. Except the min/max temperature charts which I THINK are for the 3 hours leading up to that time.

And about that front across the east, the fax charts show it as a decaying occluded front (hence the dashes through it), don't get your hopes up with that. By the time it gets inland it will be little more than a bank of cloud and a few wintry flurries.

Well, it's certainly better than a 'kick in the slats'....lol

[A.J]

Sadly, it looks increasingly like the only real snow we may see will be a transient battleground affair. Bloody hell I hope im wrong.

Come on Radders...put your happy, smiley face on...just for once...try it...you never know... I know you can do it! :D :smiliz19: :smiliz19: :smiliz19:

[snowmadchrisuk]

The paraelle Run doesn't want to know the breakdown and keeps us Cold , this is a real first test for this model as it has stuck to this idea for ages ..

[andy_leics22]

In the absence of Ian Brown, someone has to say it...snow everywhere except Staffordshire and Shropshire.

I'll bugger off back down south

This is true I believe. Except the min/max temperature charts which I THINK are for the 3 hours leading up to that time.

And about that front across the east, the fax charts show it as a decaying occluded front (hence the dashes through it), don't get your hopes up with that. By the time it gets inland it will be little more than a bank of cloud and a few wintry flurries.

Nicholas... Would you rate the UKMO model as the top dog for accuracy? Personally I don't. I remember a few times over the last few Winters where the UKMO model has forecast snow in a borderline event and GFS has said "No chance" and the GFS was right!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Your Wash Streamer for Thursday ... Hope it doesn't End up being a Loughborough Nottingham only Jobby lol

[PolarWarsaw]

Come on Radders...put your happy, smiley face on...just for once...try it...you never know... I know you can do it! :D :smiliz19: :smiliz19: :smiliz19:

JUST FOR YOU....AND BECAUSE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE 'MIGHT' SEE SOMETHING WHITE FALL FROM THE SKY THIS WEEK...(PIGEON CRAP)....I'LL CRACK ONE..... SAVOUR THE MOMENT... :clapping:

[A.J]

We're getting there, old son, we're getting there!...lol

[Bolton67]

Whats the odds on Meteociel crashing when the 12zs come rolling out?

[daza07]

What do you guys think Peterborough will get this week as we normally get bugger all snow

[andy_leics22]

The problem we have at the moment is that the air flow is a very slack one. By tomorrow and Wednesday the Easterly is forecast to have a stronger flow and it will blow showers well inland at a faster rate than we are seeing today. Seems to be taking an age for that band of precip off the Lincolnshire coast to move at the moment :lol:

I wouldn't worry though, I expect to see some precip at least 50 miles inland by 4pm, lets see if I end up with egg on my face or not :winky:

*Wipes egg off face*

Well that PPN has pretty much died a death!

[snowmadchrisuk]

*Wipes egg off face*

Well that PPN has pretty much died a death!

dont worry mate , you know these Easterly's always take a couple of days to set in .. As you said earlier wait till the Flow lines up straighter and not so slack

[Richard Lake]

Hmmm, that PPN around the Lincolnshire coast is so slow moving, it's frustrating. I've seen Lada's move faster than that.

Nothing to get too excited about yet Andy, its just very light rain. On a positive note there is some hail thrown in as well so certainly edging towards the snow threshold. Still early, perhaps something better might happen overnight, but I wouldn't bet on in it reaching inland locations until perhaps late Tuesday and into Wednesday.

[Staffordshire]

12z downgrading the streamer.

[Derbyshire_snow]

@ dJrikki another poster in the yorkshire and Lincolnshire thread has reported light snow.

[andy_leics22]

12z downgrading the streamer.

Oh spiffing, absolutely spiffing

The 12z has downgraded a lot of things actually, the high pressure is covering more of England as well, grrrrrrrrrrr.

[Costa Del Fal]

The 12z is rubbish. Cant discount the risk of the streamer as AJ mentioned earlier though on Thursday. I would actually expect upgrades on that.

However I do expect very little battle this weekend when the milder conditions expect to return. The cold just sinks with the high and apart from some snow on the hills briefly, the milder uppers look to have easily took over before any main precip arrives. If it does snow initially I expect it to be very brief. Whilst it may change, it looks like a very pathetic battle and a very easy win for the Atlantic. Teleconnections are for continued blocking however so I cant really see the Atlantic raging throughout February.

[conor123]

No surprise it's all gone to pot, im giving up with this Winter as I'll soon be wanting Spring to hurry up now as the suns getting ever stronger anyway.

[PolarWarsaw]

See what happens when I smile for you Aj? If we get an atlantic breakdown, I could handle that aslong as we get 2 or 3 hours of torrential snow before that - just so I can see what settling snow looks like again! But at the moment even that seems to much to ask!

[Hughsey]

See what happens when I smile for you Aj? If we get an atlantic breakdown, I could handle that aslong as we get 2 or 3 hours of torrential snow before that - just so I can see what settling snow looks like again! But at the moment even that seems to much to ask!

Lol same, just so long as it happens in the day, worst thing is waking up to find out there has been very heavy settling snow in the night but it has already melted and turned to slush.

[A.J]

See what happens when I smile for you Aj? If we get an atlantic breakdown, I could handle that aslong as we get 2 or 3 hours of torrential snow before that - just so I can see what settling snow looks like again! But at the moment even that seems to much to ask!

*sigh*.........lol

[Ian Ballinger]

So a big let down

[A.J]

So a big let down

No, not a let down....there is a lot of flux in current output, with varying divergence between outputs...The higher resolution models infer a stronger block, where as other model output (GFS/UKMO) suggest a block quickly eroded by an atlantic pattern...that is why ALL output should be taken with a pinch of salt currently IMO, and FI is set firmly at T72 due to the lack of consistency shown in the outputs