The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[weather_it_will]

Snow on radar heading towards Derby.

Will it reach Brum?

[snowmadchrisuk]

Oh dear bit of a downgrade from the 6z GFS r.e. Friday .. High is sinking SE over the UK to fast pushing any PPN south .. Thursday might be the Midlands best chance .. although the GFS doesn't make much of that , but it is probably not quite correct regarding the Eastward extent of any showers.

[Barbmac]

No snow here, but we do have snow grains precipitating out of the fog - first wintry precipitation in Evesham since December 2010

Ditto here in West Malvern, just some small grainy stuff.

[weather_it_will]

No point looking at the models, as they keep changing and will drive you insane.

[NorthantsSnow]

No surprise to hear that the GFS has bashfully retreated from its previous idea that it had run with for about 8 runs in a row. Seriously, why do people bother with this model? It's useless.

[andy_leics22]

Oh dear, looks like this may go down as one of the worst Winters ever for the Midlands. If the Atlantic does smash through the block as the charts are now agreeing on... We can probably kiss goodbye to Winter and look forward to Spring.

[weather_it_will]

Forget the models as they keep changing.

The outlook is cold.

[MKN]

Just incase all the poor outputs are getting you down, we always have the GEM

[snowmadchrisuk]

Oh dear, looks like this may go down as one of the worst Winters ever for the Midlands. If the Atlantic does smash through the block as the charts are now agreeing on... We can probably kiss goodbye to Winter and look forward to Spring.

Hehe it has a habbit of Snowing in Leicester during Easter ,,, Daffs look gorgeous covered in Snow though lol. Bad Winter overall I agree but lets hope we get an Early winter at the end of the year as were all gonna die on Dec 21st !!!!!!!!!!!

[Ian Ballinger]

It better be a good summer after this poor attempt of a winter

[picog]

Ditto here in West Malvern, just some small grainy stuff.

Same here in Ludlow area.

[snow freak]

Great, we finally get some (although nowhere near as brutal as was suggested) and it looks as though it's going to be a non event snow wise too. What's the point. I give up with winters in this country. They are not even worth looking forward to (unless you like mild and rainy weather). Now that is almost a guarantee. What a disappointment this winter has been.

[MKN]

If the GEM/UKMO are right then there would be a snowy breakdown and was mentioned as a developing situation on bbc news weather at 12. The worry is the ECM/GFS are correct instead with there version of the breakdown which would leave us with sleet to rain at best.

You can see how the slight differences over the uk make the difference between rain or snow from the incoming atlantic

[snow freak]

I very much doubt there will be a snowy breakdown, more likely rain or sleet at best. This winter has just not had the right set ups for snow and I very much doubt that pattern will alter for the rest of the winter/early Spring. No doubt we will get the right conditions (meteorologically speaking) in the summer which would have resulted in bitter cold and snowy weather had it happened in the winter. I give up even hoping for the white stuff now as it never seems to materialise. If we can't get it with an easterly there is no hope.

[andy_leics22]

I can confirm it is snowing very lightly here, snow nonetheless though

[snowmadchrisuk]

Tell you what, never seen the Meto update this late before they must be really umming and arhing down in Exeter.

[MKN]

i noticed that aswell chris was going to ask in the model thread at what time they recieve the 12z outputs. Could be there hanging on to view those first

[andy_leics22]

Tell you what, never seen the Meto update this late before they must be really umming and arhing down in Exeter.

They must be a bit more confident now the GFS has jumped on board though I reckon the Atlantic break down by the Weekend is nailed on now but there is huge uncertainty as to what develops after the break down. It will go one of 2 ways... Atlantic back in charge and probably weeks of Westerly winds with the odd short lived Northerly thrown in, or... Blocking to build again but this time West of the UK with the possiblity of a Greenland high eventually setting up in a few weeks time.

[snowmadchrisuk]

i noticed that aswell chris was going to ask in the model thread at what time they recieve the 12z outputs. Could be there hanging on to view those first

There hanging on for something , It was issued at just after 11am yesterday ..

[jimben]

First signs of a change of thinking at the Met Office?

The 5 day forecast for my area for the last few days has shown the wind direction as being SSW, S, SSW and just now has changed to north and Saturday has changed from SW to SSE. Interesting.

[weather_it_will]

i noticed that aswell chris was going to ask in the model thread at what time they recieve the 12z outputs. Could be there hanging on to view those first

Meto WM weather this morning at 9am upgraded saturdays weather from 5C max to 1C, so they must think it's staying colder for longer.

[andy_leics22]

First signs of a change of thinking at the Met Office?

The 5 day forecast for my area for the last few days has shown the wind direction as being SSW, S, SSW and just now has changed to north and Saturday has changed from SW to SSE. Interesting.

[Mark Neal.]

First signs of a change of thinking at the Met Office?

The 5 day forecast for my area for the last few days has shown the wind direction as being SSW, S, SSW and just now has changed to north and Saturday has changed from SW to SSE. Interesting.

Hi Jimben... I have seen the same for my area, Oxford now showing sleet saturday and saturday night with sleet aswell, while closeby it shows snow... Upgrade in that part? Ian Fergusson saying Snowy breakdown likely for Southern/Eastern/Central areas...

Good Luck everyone

Regards,Mark

[conor123]

Wasn't surprised to wake up earlier and find things had gone to pot completely now, what an absolute travesty of a winter.

Im certain there will be no snowy breakdown this weekend and the mild air will just roll on in no questions asked like the ECM & GFS suggest.

Slate grey skies and 1c today with no frost aswell, hideous.

[weather_it_will]

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2012:

Sunday is likely to be unsettled and mostly cloudy with a band of rain and snow lying north to south across the country. Although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will lie central and eastern parts are most likely to see snow and/or ice, with perhaps some significant falls of snow in places. Less cold in the north and west, but remaining cold elsewhere. Into next week, eastern, central and southern areas are likely to become more settled with a good deal of dry weather. Temperatures here are likely to stay cold, perhaps even very cold for some. Northern and northwestern areas then remaining unsettled with rain and strong winds at times but less cold. The cold theme looks likely to continue into the following week.

Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012