The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[Mrsf16]

I have been watching the band of showers and on the latest radar the 11am one the colours on the radar indicating heavier precipitation where beginning to show up just off the coast of Lincolnshire.

Does look like it is disintegrating as it reaches further inland though xxx

[Derbyshire_snow]

Does look like it is disintegrating as it reaches further inland though xxx

That is the lightest part of the precip at the front of the band we will just have to wait and see what happens i wasn't expecting anything here anyway so if we get any snow here it will be a bonus IMO.

[andy_leics22]

The problem we have at the moment is that the air flow is a very slack one. By tomorrow and Wednesday the Easterly is forecast to have a stronger flow and it will blow showers well inland at a faster rate than we are seeing today. Seems to be taking an age for that band of precip off the Lincolnshire coast to move at the moment :lol:

I wouldn't worry though, I expect to see some precip at least 50 miles inland by 4pm, lets see if I end up with egg on my face or not :winky:

[andy_leics22]

Certainly an interesting line of precip in the North Sea, looks like a trough line moving in. I know the models did forecast a very weak front mind you on Monday, so maybe that is it.

Agreed, it must be that front that is on the FAX charts, it's weak but it seems to stick around the same sort of area for over 24 hours, it's a strange one.

Here it is for this morning...

and it's still there by midday tomorrow... :lol:

[A.J]

the 06z GFS paints a fairly dry but cold picture in the reliable time frame, but to my eye there's interest on wednesday as a kink in the isobar patterns suggest a trough developing in the easterly flow, this has wash streamer written all over it IMO, good for leicester/derby/brum/stafford...to the south, dry...to the north, dry.......A word of caution though, it's easy to get swept along with the ramping that goes with some of the posts in the MOD, which origin from the same posters that say any 06z output on a daily basis is unreliable and should be disregarded

Edited January 30, 2012 by ajpoolshark
edited to avoid misinterpretation

[Macey]

the 06z GFS paints a fairly dry but cold picture in the reliable time frame, but to my eye there's interest on wednesday as a kink in the isobar patterns suggest a trough developing in the easterly flow, this has wash streamer written all over it IMO, good for leicester/derby/brum/stafford...to the south, dry...to the north, dry.......A word of caution though, it's easy to get swept along with the ramping that goes with some of the posts in the MOD, which origin from the same posters that say any 06z output on a daily basis is unreliable and should be disregarded

aj do you have the 06z GFS at hand? I'm wondering what angle this potential streamer will come in at, with Northampton being in a possible firing line (we can wish!)

[A.J]

aj do you have the 06z GFS at hand? I'm wondering what angle this potential streamer will come in at, with Northampton being in a possible firing line (we can wish!)

yes, sure...give me a minute to load up my annotated charts for you.....btw, a typo on my part...it's thursday, not wednesday....doh!

[A.J]

ok....note the kink in the isobars, indicating a possible trough developing...then notice the strength of the easterly flow allowing PPN to move well inland.....the PPN inland peters out eventually as the easterly flow slackens but with the temperature gradient (look at the cold uppers) showers would continue near the east coast...at least that's my interpretation

a few charts to illustrate...first the T850's and associated pressure pattern, then the 06z GFS PPN charts....Again, a word of caution, the reliability of this run is questionable

[Macey]

How generous of you, thank you very much! That's made it a lot clearer, though I guess we will see what happens closer to the time. Cheers.

[Ian Ballinger]

If that pulls off, chances of snow in Shropshire?

[MKN]

the Key point to what you have highlighted aj is the fact the gfs generally underplays any precip in these setups till around t+24 at best so the fact it shows potential now has to be a good sign.

[A.J]

the Key point to what you have highlighted aj is the fact the gfs generally underplays any precip in these setups till around t+24 at best so the fact it shows potential now has to be a good sign.

yes, a good sign indeed....last winter a wash streamer dropped 3 inches here, the model outputs underplayed the event totally

[Ian Ballinger]

Sorry I'm a novice, where can I see the GFS chart?

[A.J]

Sorry I'm a novice, where can I see the GFS chart?

here....... http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

....also the link allows you to compare with the other models output as well

[dvdfjojo]

Quick question for you, AJ. If you're looking at a chart for say Today 12.00 - does that chart incorporate the weather in the 3 hrs leading up to that time, the 3 hrs after that time or is it a snapshot of noon on the dot?

[NorthantsSnow]

Some potential up to Friday then, although with pressure so high on the western side of the United Kingdom the further east you are the better I'd say. I'd imagine the precip charts will upgrade as we get nearer the time (as they have done for today in the SE) as they pick up on on various features they miss at a longer range.

Beyond that, the UKMO update says it all: "Milder conditions are likely to arrive during Saturday and Saturday night, with temperatures likely to rise above threshold values in all regions."

They have complete faith in their model and so do I. The GFS is playing us again. Enjoy it whilst it lasts folks, I know I will. Let's hope we get organised bands of snow coming in off the N Sea Thurs/Fri, it's our best bet right now and a damn sight better than anything else this incredibly poor winter has had to offer us.

[A.J]

Quick question for you, AJ. If you're looking at a chart for say Today 12.00 - does that chart incorporate the weather in the 3 hrs leading up to that time, the 3 hrs after that time or is it a snapshot of noon on the dot?

hmm....good question....I'm presuming it's a snapshot, run at a resolution of 3 hourly frames, just as the higher-resolution NMM model runs in hourly frames

[matty40s]

The Met Office has changed that update now, and added another yellow ice splodge to the warnings.

They are basically pulling back from the milder conditions, saying a rain band will move through turning to snow and ice on the leading edge and may get stalled by the cold.

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm, that PPN around the Lincolnshire coast is so slow moving, it's frustrating. I've seen Lada's move faster than that.

Some potential up to Friday then, although with pressure so high on the western side of the United Kingdom the further east you are the better I'd say. I'd imagine the precip charts will upgrade as we get nearer the time (as they have done for today in the SE) as they pick up on on various features they miss at a longer range.

Beyond that, the UKMO update says it all: "Milder conditions are likely to arrive during Saturday and Saturday night, with temperatures likely to rise above threshold values in all regions."

They have complete faith in their model and so do I. The GFS is playing us again. Enjoy it whilst it lasts folks, I know I will. Let's hope we get organised bands of snow coming in off the N Sea Thurs/Fri, it's our best bet right now and a damn sight better than anything else this incredibly poor winter has had to offer us.

Takes a big pair of grapefruits to issue that with confidence, I don't rate the UKMO model that highly anyway, wouldn't surprise me if the GFS was right between now and t120 and the UKMO ends up backtracking.

[Bolton67]

The Met Office has changed that update now, and added another yellow ice splodge to the warnings.

They are basically pulling back from the milder conditions, saying a rain band will move through turning to snow and ice on the leading edge and may get stalled by the cold.

Yep, do i see a MetO backtrack??

The most likely scenario is for further weather systems to push in from the west but stalling over the country giving an increasing risk of snow in central and eastern parts, especially over higher ground.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_weather.html

[NorthantsSnow]

The Met Office has changed that update now, and added another yellow ice splodge to the warnings.

They are basically pulling back from the milder conditions, saying a rain band will move through turning to snow and ice on the leading edge and may get stalled by the cold.

Where you looking? It's still there on the warning page about the cold weather alert. See paragraph 2 here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

Sorry, but I'd never bet against the UKMO on this. For them to put that on their website suggests high confidence in that outcome.

[Bolton67]

Where you looking? It's still there on the warning page about the cold weather alert. See paragraph 2 here:

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/

Sorry, but I'd never bet against the UKMO on this. For them to put that on their website suggests high confidence in that outcome.

Hi dan, it's on the day 6-15 outlook.

Thats changed from yesterday.

[andy_leics22]

Where you looking? It's still there on the warning page about the cold weather alert. See paragraph 2 here:

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/

Sorry, but I'd never bet against the UKMO on this. For them to put that on their website suggests high confidence in that outcome.

Dude, did you not see how much the models flip flopped within t120 in the run up to this cold spell? at one point the UKMO model was adamant that this Easterly wouldn't happen and then it changed it's mind the next day. I'm telling ya now, it takes someone with a big pair of knackers to confidently forecast what will happen by the weekend.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Dude, did you not see how much the models flip flopped within t120 in the run up to this cold spell? at one point the UKMO model was adamant that this Easterly wouldn't happen and then it changed it's mind the next day. I'm telling ya now, it takes someone with a big pair of knackers to confidently forecast what will happen by the weekend.

Yes I have seen them get it wrong a few times and backtrack esp on 6-15 days .. Would feel better though if they used the words it may turn Mild rather than it will

[PolarWarsaw]

Sadly, it looks increasingly like the only real snow we may see will be a transient battleground affair. Bloody hell I hope im wrong.