The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[kmanmx]

Can someone give a summary of the 18z ? On my phone here so a bit difficult to keep track of what's happening.

Thanks!

[NorthantsSnow]

well gfs ends up further east at the crunch time, not good. was to be expected though really has been a trend for the 18z to move things further east after the 12z

No it hasn't mate. Have another look. The snow boundary line is further west than the 12z.

Compare this:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120203/12/36/prectypeuktopo.png (old version)

To this:

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png (new version)

We are closer to the snow boundary line than before.

Edited February 3, 2012 by NorthantsSnow

[Costa Del Fal]

Hmm in the end there is not much difference on the 18z GFS actually though certainly the colder air a touch further West in which you can see the snow extends a little further Westwards though its not that noticeable.

[Chess01]

Stoke has had about 3 days of snow in december . December 16th we recieved a right dump as showers came through the cheshire gap and as were about 560 feet above sea level it was quite a covering

[MKN]

Do remember everyone we are analysis the gfs which is far from the best at this output, Nae and nmm are the models to go by. And i say that despite at +27 being further east it then moves to being further west at +30, shows how overall very little difference from the gfs tonight. looking forward to the nmm if someone would kindly give us a breakdown of what it shows, that would be good

[Gord]

GFS still keen on sleet for quite a lot of the Midlands actually

Not convinced by it but that's a big area of rain over us. Ah well, let's find out what the reality is. Not long now.

[NorthantsSnow]

First important frame of the NAE 18z looks good for the north west of the region:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/03/basis18/ukuk/prty/12020418_0318.gif

[cyclonic happiness]

Not convinced by it but that's a big area of rain over us. Ah well, let's find out what the reality is. Not long now.

gfs does have a habit of 'overdoing' the temperatures at close range, and all the forecasts I've seen have been of snow and not sleet or rain.

In fact the Beeb loves the term 'sleet and snow' but I haven't heard that once for the midlands.

I'm just concerned at what time the bugger comes in, I at least want a little go on my RF600!!

[A.J]

I'll go tete a tete with ya pal :winky: *slicks hair back and tapes hands up* :w00t:

really?..........a quote from Frankie Boyle from Mock the Week - 'scenes we'd like to see', comes to mind......"What's that Joker?...you'll be back?......Somehow I don't think you will be!" :winky:

[Geordiesnow]

First important frame of the NAE 18z looks good for the north west of the region:

http://expert-images...020418_0318.gif

Are you really convinced by that chart NS? Considering its showing its snowing out into the North Sea just to the East of Scotland despite temperatures of around 4-5C?

It just tells me its unreliable just like those GFS PPN type are sadly.

As with our region, the problem occurs with the timing of the front - coming at the warmest part of the day and the bubble of "milder air" of upper temps of -2 when the PPN first arrives. I would fancy the East Midlands over the West Midlands for snowfall but I would prefer to be in those two areas than my area at this stage.

[NoSnowJo]

ermm it is the 18z gfs run i wouldn't get the razor blades out ,they only run it for a laugh so we can all get excited one run then see all our hopes disintegrate the next

[#windysnow#]

-7.1 here now definetly colder than last night at this time.................need advice.......when shud I start to get excited about this, I just dont want to be dissapointed again?? My 6 yr old son has gone to bed visioning white.....it must be in the genes!

[andy_leics22]

really?..........a quote from Frankie Boyle from Mock the Week - 'scenes we'd like to see', comes to mind......"What's that Joker?...you'll be back?......Somehow I don't think you will be!" :winky:

:rofl:

As for the Weather...

KNIFE.EDGE

[FreezeManiac]

Don't know if the GFS is trustworthy at the moment

[klippieboo]

agreed deffo colder than last night ! was that forecast dont remember?

[MKN]

I think the gfs is slightly to far east tonight, hopefully the NAE is nearer the mark.

[FreezeManiac]

I think the gfs is slightly to far east tonight, hopefully the NAE is nearer the mark.

We can only hope...

[NorthantsSnow]

NAE 18z looks very good, with the snow boundary line further west than the previous:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/03/basis18/ukuk/prty/12020500_0318.gif

Also liking the darker pink splodge not too far from here!

[A.J]

Do remember everyone we are analysis the gfs which is far from the best at this output, Nae and nmm are the models to go by. And i say that despite at +27 being further east it then moves to being further west at +30, shows how overall very little difference from the gfs tonight. looking forward to the nmm if someone would kindly give us a breakdown of what it shows, that would be good

Hi ST, NMM should update around 11pm......I'll post a couple of charts then, unless anyone else does

[klippieboo]

BBC five day is saying 11 degrees by wednesday??????????

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3345439

[Strider]

So when they were talking about deaths from cold weather I presume they were talking about GFS-induced heart attacks right?

[FreezeManiac]

NAE 18z looks very good, with the snow boundary line further west than the previous:

http://expert-images...020500_0318.gif

Also liking the darker pink splodge not too far from here!

Lets hope it turns out like that!

[NorthantsSnow]

Are you really convinced by that chart NS? Considering its showing its snowing out into the North Sea just to the East of Scotland despite temperatures of around 4-5C?

It just tells me its unreliable just like those GFS PPN type are sadly.

As with our region, the problem occurs with the timing of the front - coming at the warmest part of the day and the bubble of "milder air" of upper temps of -2 when the PPN first arrives. I would fancy the East Midlands over the West Midlands for snowfall but I would prefer to be in those two areas than my area at this stage.

It's probably the best case scenario. I find the NMM to be more reliable so I'm looking forward to seeing what that shows when it comes out shortly.

Good luck for tomorrow.

[NoSnowJo]

that does look a nice chart Northants, can see this coming down to the wire and being a look out of the window job no matter how mcuh we scrutinise the models

[cyclonic happiness]

folk are being a little too concerned with model detail which, at this hour, aren't half as usual as radar watching.

Has this beast come on to the radar yet, is it visible I mean?