Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Snowy Easterly]

the met office will brush it under the carpet like they always do

[Chris K]

I am not looking forward to all this standing water freezing over tonight. All our sideroads aren't gritted much and now its rained a fair bit here it's probably all washed away, so it's going to be hectic getting out onto the main road up the hill....jeeez. At least if we had snow it'd have a bit more grip....

I can understand the amount of uncertainty with these sorts of scenarios. However, I feel the 'professionals' should have spotted differences between the radars and the models MUCH sooner.

Personally, I'm disappointed with the MetO for this reason, especially for not updating sooner.

Anyway, looks like some intense rain heading my way from Gloucester, I hope it isn't freezing rain <_< Although often great to look at...its lethal stuff.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Bugganuts

[stewfox]

Awesome - good to hear someone's got a pasting even if not me on this occasion (though at least we've got a dusting which i suppose it at least more than most)

Seem to be have been between the two main belts about 3 inches in total much lighter now.

what got me how heavy and how it settled everywhere so quickly

Edited February 9, 2012 by stewfox

[nick sussex]

The BBC need to ship out some of the drab presenters and get someone in like Mary Ramos from CNN, shes great fun and full of life, or they could go for a bit of class like this lady from TF1 here in France!

Take a look:

http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/previsions-flash-meteo/tf1-les-previsions-meteo-du-12-mai-2010-5850190.html

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Seem to be have been between the two main belts about 3 inches in total much lighter now.

what got me how heavy and how it settled everywhere so quickly

You done better than me, i really was between the 2 bands and have an inch an a half, saying that, i really dont think its over yet tbh, the stuff just off the north sea is gaining intensity? It can develop as quick as it disintegrates cant it? The low pressure isnt done yet folks, just cause it looks like thats it for some areas things can change!

[johnholmes]

Im sure John H will defend the Met O but sorry you cannot defend this. Even at 1546 the Met O did not change the forecast from the morning for my region. They continued to predict only light flurries when a glance at the radar would of shown a huge area of precip extending SSW towards the E Midlands.

simple - they got it wrong I have never supported them if in my view they get it wrong-read my comments in early January about their poor guidance regarding one low and storm force winds in particular.

One of my comments over the last few years is their apparent inability to use their training in 'now' casting' or put another way using the skills all forecasters are given in their various training courses, use the data in front of them, surface, upper air actual data NOT model, along with radar and sat piccs for the next 1-24 hours. Look at the model by all means but not blindly. I'm not the only ex forecaster who shakes their head in disbelief at some of their very short range outputs. Out to T+24 then the human can be as good as the model. Beyond T+24 then the model quickly overtakes the human due to the sheer complexity of following all the variables and the time factor.

Nope-poor forecasting end of story.

Edited February 10, 2012 by johnholmes

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well..This smashes Saturdays fall..I would say 3 maybe more inches here..Very pretty BUT very very icy!!!

[johnholmes]

simple - they got it wrong I have never supported them if in my view they get it wrong-read my comments in early January about their poor guidance regarding one low and storm force winds in particular.

One of my comments over the last few years is their apparent inability to use their training in 'now' casting' or put another way using the skills all forecasters are given in their various training courses, use the data in front of them, surface, upper air actual data NOT model, along with radar and sat piccs for the next 1-24 hours. Look at the model by all means but not blindly. I'm not the only ex forecaster who shakes their head in disbelief at some of their very short range outputs. Out to T+24 then the human can be as good as the model. Beyond T+24 then the model quickly overtakes the human due to the sheer complexity of following all the variables and the time factor.

Nope-poor forecasting end of story.

Having got that off my chest-a more balanced comment!

They got much of the forecast correct-the freezing rain even more difficult to get right, was largely correct. They got part of the snow correct but did not react to the area devleoping off the east coast of Scotland. If you watch the radar play back there are, for much of the time, two bands of radar echoes, one in the east where all the complaints have come from-justifiably, and one further west which was a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow, which was largely correct-not brilliant but reasonably correct. Quite why the eastern band was not correctly predicted at very short time scales I have no idea as if you superimposed the upper winds it was pretty obvious where the area pf precipitation was moving.

best I leave it for now.

[cyclonic happiness]

simple - they got it wrong I have never supported them if in my view they get it wrong-read my comments in early January about their poor guidance regarding one low and storm force winds in particular.

One of my comments over the last few years is their apparent inability to use their training in 'now' casting' or put another way using the skills all forecasters are given in their various training courses, use the data in front of them, surface, upper air actual data NOT model, along with radar and sat piccs for the next 1-24 hours. Look at the model by all means but not blindly. I'm not the only ex forecaster who shakes their head in disbelief at some of their very short range outputs. Out to T+24 then the human can be as good as the model. Beyond T+24 then the model quickly overtakes the human due to the sheer complexity of following all the variables and the time factor.

Nope-poor forecasting end of story.

I agree with you John!

Even us amateurs on here use the models up until around 12 hours before and then look to the sky and radar images to tell us what is ACTUALLY going on.

We could see even by around 8am yesterday morning that the majority of the snow was going down the eastern side and not 200 miles to the west and yet the forecasts didn't change at all??

Even before I went to bed at 11pm, they were still forecasting heavy snow for the Birmingham area.

Anyone looking at a rainfall radar could have told that the event never even started for this area let alone would still deliver the 5-10cm of snow they were STILL forecasting??!

[TEITS]

simple - they got it wrong I have never supported them if in my view they get it wrong-read my comments in early January about their poor guidance regarding one low and storm force winds in particular.

One of my comments over the last few years is their apparent inability to use their training in 'now' casting' or put another way using the skills all forecasters are given in their various training courses, use the data in front of them, surface, upper air actual data NOT model, along with radar and sat piccs for the next 1-24 hours. Look at the model by all means but not blindly. I'm not the only ex forecaster who shakes their head in disbelief at some of their very short range outputs. Out to T+24 then the human can be as good as the model. Beyond T+24 then the model quickly overtakes the human due to the sheer complexity of following all the variables and the time factor.

Nope-poor forecasting end of story.

Thanks for sharing that John and I certainly agree with your comments about nowcasting.

I still remember weather forecasts going back to the 1970s/80s. Now whilst the accuracy of 7-10day forecasts has improved I have to say I reckon the +0 to +24hr forecasts have actually got worse on some occasions. Seems to me these days far too much focus is put on models and less on nowcasting.

I wonder what the legendary forecasters like George Cowling would think. This was a man who would predict the next 24hrs by drawing the charts using a pencil and rubber. How I miss the old days with other legends such as Jack Scott.

[Pixel]

...from this mornings national met office conference:

Head forecaster:

"I've been to accounts and negotiated purchase of a packet of cigarettes and a radar subscription for all of you. The use of both is now compulsory - Do not smoke inside."

[Michael Winston]

The BBC need to ship out some of the drab presenters and get someone in like Mary Ramos from CNN, shes great fun and full of life, or they could go for a bit of class like this lady from TF1 here in France!

Take a look:

http://videos.tf1.fr...10-5850190.html

Fantastique!

[nick sussex]

Fantastique!

Yes she's great; even if she's forecasting mild muck, somehow its more bearable!

Maybe she could give Carol Kirkwood a few tips regarding the wardrobe department! they also have a guy doing the forecast on some days to give her a chance to get out to Chanel and Dior and do some shopping!lol

[Love weather]

hi

I have looked at the Met office this morning, it looks like more possible snow for the east late on Tuesday. do we know any more info about this at the moment?.

Thanks

Love Weather

[MKN]

to highlight the point teits made earlier regarding the nae precip prediction compared to the radar at +3

My post made at 10pm on the 8/2 highlighting what teits had said and seemed obvious at the time turned out to be correct yet the metoffice couldnt see it for themselves just hours before. Poor show really from them on this one. The first weather forecast to suggest the shift east that was more accurate wasnt until 6pm.

[conor123]

Rubbish event overall, no snow to speak of here just plain rain and then freezing rain which coated everything in ice and has now pretty much melted.

[Dan the Man]

I have looked at the Met office this morning, it looks like more possible snow for the east late on Tuesday. do we know any more info about this at the moment?.

So that snow will come on Thursday then!

[kold weather]

Its ironic that some parts of the SE got a better amount of snow than the warning zone did!

Who'd have thought that just looking at the models. This event has once again proven that you can have stupidly good and high resolution models but if the intil data is wrong, then the whole thing will go wrong with it...

[Snowy Easterly]

FI is T0

[MKN]

hi

I have looked at the Met office this morning, it looks like more possible snow for the east late on Tuesday. do we know any more info about this at the moment?.

Thanks

Love Weather

All we know at this stage is it could snow in the east tuesday, but come tomorrow itl be devon in the firing line followed by wales sunday and by monday it will be back to east anglia only for it to snow in scotland instead on tuesday itself.

[ZONE 51]

I have to say that i find it difficult to understand why the models change so much, is this because some data is not being picked up or it is but not in time for the updated runs? really un-balanced output at times and this makes it hard to know what to stick on the drawing board first, if i was to create a multi layed map of all the precipitation models data for that day-for example say NMM/NAE/GFS.. then what would that map look like? would it be all the same? no, because i have done this with NAE/GFS and they turn out different most times even the data output 00z on thursday mornings snow event these where different,

NAE..6pm to Midnight this charts covers, it does not show where we where on the radar over those hours exactly,

Edited February 11, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

I have to say that i find it difficult to understand why the models change so much, is this because some data(from the atmosphere/other is not being picked up or it is but not in time for the updated runs? really un-balanced output at times and this makes it hard to know what to stick on the drawing board first, if i was to create a multi layered map of all the precipitation models data from the 00z to use for that day-for example say NMM/NAE/GFS.. then what would that map look like? would it be all the same? no, i have done this with NAE/GFS and they turn out different most times even the data output 00z on thursday morning, day of the snow event, and these where different, are all the ppn models meant to agree? or is this why there are many models for ppn?

NAE..6pm to Midnight this charts covers, it does not show what was on the radar over that period over those hours,

next is the same chart but snow/rain..

i have usually found NAE very accurate from the mornings data to the precipitation ahead that day, GFS had some changes from the night before on the 18z and the 00z, if we look at the 9pm-midnight 18z and 00z..

18z above

and the 00z above

quite a shift towards the east of the moderate or heavier snowfall,

the next chart i have drawn a line to show where the 18z modelled the edge to be and the 00z,

Edited February 11, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

I have just gone through the 00z/06z/12z/18z thursdays runs, NAE/GFS,

and the ppn is shifted from east to west and back again...... not a wonder it was hard to pinpoint where the heavier falls of snow/rain would be, we can watch the radar, and even the radar can show sudden areas of heavier stuff pop up as it did right over Surrey late evening thursday within an hour! it just expanded!

below is a radar animation from 1800hrs-0030hrs thursday into friday..

its the MetOs radar and i have created a gif animation and this one is much lower quality then the original images to lower the file size down.