Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Nice to see so many people joining in here!

Well, a little sea ice update I guess.

On IJIS we've seen a small increase up to yesterday of about 10,000km2. Much too early to call the minimum, but we're definitely getting close.

On the NSIDC extent we saw a large enough drop yesterday (~43k) to keep the 5 day mean falling. A 31k increase would be required today to cause the first 5 day mean increase.

I've downloaded all the past NSIDC extent data, so will start putting up some graphs from that over the next few days

For the next 5 days at least a -ve dipole pattern remains in place. A very stable and strong blocking high is anchored to the Laptev sea, with some strong depressions swinging up near the Greenland sea and into the southern Barents sea, with a relatively weaker low pressure area acorss the Canadian Archipelago. This -ve dipole used to be a positive for sea ice, with it correlating to a larger September extent increase and early minimum.

So hopefully we'll see an end to the melt season soon, unless the sea ice decides it still want to spring a few more surprises!

thanks for the update bftv , this is all new to me but most interesting, here is a upward graph for general ice in return http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

[Gray-Wolf]

'tis a bit of a quandry? Do we get the calm ,deep cold to freeze a skim and lock in ghe heat of do we want a slow stormy one to get as much heat out (allowing for the low cloud traping the heat and allowing it's impacts to remain 'on-board' and not space bound)?

I understand we've had 'big cyclones' in the basin before but something about GAC12 had me a tad concerned. not just the depth of mixing that some of the buoys showed but also it's position and 'form'.

Would I be right in thinking that the rotation of the earth, at 90N, would allow the upper and lower L.P.'s to sit on top and below one another (like a 'Cane but not like a 'cane) and could that lead to a very long lived storm? You imagine a warm sea with the polar vortex above it? Now that's a 'weather changer' no doubt!

Anyhoo's, they reckon on a 3w/m sq change for seasonal but only 5 w/m sq for year long ice abscence....I wonder where we are headed?

Edited September 10, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

You seem to be getting a tad carried-away there, Ian? Be careful what you wish for!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another increase in the IJIS data of about 21k, making it 31k over the last 2 days to reach 3,695,313km2

Looking at recent years to see what kind of increases occurred before the minimum was reached

2011- No September increases before the minimum on the 9th

2010- a 56k increase between the 10th and 13th before the minimum on the 18th

2009- small (<10k) climbs between the 3rd-4th and 7th-8th, before the minimum on the 13th

2008- <10k increase between the 2nd and 3rd before the minimum on the 9th

2007- <10k increase from the 1st to 2nd, and a 44k increase between the 16th and 20th, before the minimum on the 24th.

thanks for the update bftv , this is all new to me but most interesting, here is a upward graph for general ice in return http://arctic-roos.o...i1_ice_area.png

Here's a link to a large collection of charts and graphs you might like.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we need a new line on the anom graph?

Greenland ice ticked up so I guess we have a bit of Fram export going on?

[BornFromTheVoid]

CT has updated with an increase of 47.4k to day 251.

This appears to be down to a jump in area in the Canadian Archipelago and the Greenland sea, while the Arctic Basin continues to drop (ice export perhaps?). In fact, the area anomaly for the Arctic Basin now requires an extension of the Y-axis...

Edit: GW beat me to it!

Edited September 10, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

Is all the brown around ice edges part of another algal bloom?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012254.terra

Seems to be become quite clear and widespread over the last week or so

[Gray-Wolf]

I keep forgetting just how thin the ice along the north shore of Greenland became in Aug and also the amount of shorefast ice that broke up and floated off all along that shore? As it is with leslie due to tighten the isobars along the export route maybe we should have more of a concern for the ice's ability to 'sail'?

I've been more focused on bottom melt/SSt's over on the Beaufort side to spend much time looking at the pack over our side (apart from the little excursion north in Fram at the end of Aug) so I've no real notion as to just how it's holding up? It must be at it's weakest though so we'd just better keep a weather eye over the coming 7 days as this is ice that could survive in the basin so it'd be a tradgedy for it to be lost into the Atlantic and be replaced by FY ice?

[Gray-Wolf]

Is all the brown around ice edges part of another algal bloom?

http://rapidfire.sci.../?mosaic=Arctic

http://rapidfire.sci...4.2012254.terra

Seems to be become quite clear and widespread over the last week or so

There was a concern after the GAC12 that any tumbled ice would now be showing a 'darker bottom' due to the algal growth below the pack ice/ maybe once the ice is gone this mass is set adrift?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The NSIDC daily extent is back just below 3.5 million, with the 5 day mean continuing to drop also, down to 3,524,000km2.

Meanwhile MASIE has skipped day 252 for some reason, but shows an increase of just over 100k between day 251 and 253.

We're finally reaching the end melt season plateau at least!

EDIT: Thought I'd put up the first graph of the NSIDC extent data

Edited September 10, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[barrel1234]

Can anyone remember the general conditions last year in mid/late september/early october in the Arctic? Was it cold and calm? Milder and stormy? Obviously the ice must have been left in a pretty thin state after/during the re-freeze so I am just trying to get an idea under the conditions that the ice would have begun forming in, and trying to get an idea of how much effect an insulating layer might have opposed to windy 'bump and grind mixing' ice formation

[snowfluff]

Sorry am a bit confused here, having just read the "Important points prior to posting in this part of the forum" i could not find where it says" you must provide a link to research,papers/and websites that support their take on climate change"

?

Many thanks.

Sorry , any chance of an answer ?

[pottyprof]

Sorry , any chance of an answer ?

Yes. there was an answer from BFTV and myself a few posts ago and the separate extra rules for this part of the climate forum are here. http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=forums&section=rules&f=105

These rules are enforced rigidly.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The temps north of 80N are taking their time dropping. This is so far looking like being in the top 3 for warmest starts to Autumn, with '84 being the closest I can see.

Looking at the forecast, as the high, currently centred over the East Siberian Sea begins to extend down into the Kara. This pulls mild air from the Barents Sea up towards the N. Pole, pushing the uppers above 0C, and the surface temps back close to 0C too. Looking likely that temps will be staying above average for the next 5 days at least, with the possibility of having the warmest start to Autumn on record.

t6

..... SLP ................................... T 850hPa ........................................... 2m T

t36

.... SLP .........................................T 850hPa ......................................... 2m T

t72

.... SLP ........................................ T 850hPa ..........................................2m T

t144

.... SLP ......................................... T850hPa ........................................ 2m T

Meanwhile, the rise in IJIS extent has ended with a 24k drop yesterday. The lowest daily extent is still the 6th, so no new record this time.

[Gray-Wolf]

I know it's early days yet but the DMI80N plot is starting to look quite unique in the record? I'm sure we've seen it as warm but it's always had a lot more variability to it? i wonder if the latent heat from re-freeze of all the open water beyond 80n will also impact the plot? With another wadge of warm uppers set to wade in up there it is starting to look like we will see another 'plot' evolving for the years with over 25% 'open water' beyond 80N?

As i've said through the season any move from the ice supressed temps over summer will be stark to view but after the extent of this years melt (and the losses to the older ice....plus the drain on the old ice over the winter to come) makes me wonder whether we'll see the first significant glimpse of that 'rise' in Aug of next year?

Is anyone else out there forming a conclusion that we have already undergone a 'state change' in the Arctic ice?

To me it occured in the 80's with ice volumes dropping low enough to allow area loss, others might see 07' , and the failure to recover from it, as the moment? Others still may use the volume crash of 2010 as the moment things altered.

The question is 'have things altered'? Can you see any changes that make ice recovery now doubly difficult than before 'things changed'?

[BornFromTheVoid]

We have our 2nd consecutive day of increases on CT. We've jumped 27k on the previous day, and 74k between day 250 and day 252.

This appears to have stemmed from a large rise in the Greenland Sea to take the area above average here, with a small increase also in the Arctic Basin.

We're pretty much at the time of the typical area minimum now, so anything other than increases will be moving us away from average. A typical year will gain around 700,000km2 between the minimum and the end of September, so we should be aiming to be at 3 million by months end.

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been looking at the ice drift maps and forecast and they do tend to show the plume down the NE coast of Greenland extending and plumping up so we can expect to see even more increases there? I know it's triffling but a lot of the glacier snouts/shorefast ice has also entered into this stream so some of this is 'new sea ice' being part of a glacier in a previous incarnation.

The worry is that the ice flowing out of Fram is 'good ice' and the stuff that will grow in it's place is weaker ice. If the Polar vortex sets up home over Greenland then this could lead to another winter of losses via Fram leaving us with a basin brimming with FY ice for next years melt season?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think at this time of year, the Greenland sea is the last place you want to see extent increases.

Seems the NSIDC extent ain't done yet, with a new 1 day and 5 day mean extent record yesterday, of 3,466,460km2 and 3,513,000km2 respectively.

[pottyprof]

I've opened a thread for the freeze and will leave this thread open until it is well under way.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74399-arctic-ice-discussion-the-refreeze-2012-2013/

[mark4]

I have been a lurker of this thread for sometime and I am extremely interested in what is happening in the arctic. One question I keep asking myself is, why does the ice extent in winter stay consistantly high considering all the feed back from warmer sea temperatures?

There has been a great deal of comments on here regarding how the UK will have wetter, stormy summers when the ice has gone in the arctic. What we have to be careful of is not jumping to conclusions as we are also experiencing a solar minimum, and this too could also be adding to our wet summers.

Finally, we also have to consider that the earth has gone through many inter glacial periods and maybe we are the first humans who will be experiencing it. How we adpted is the answer we should be looking for!

Edited September 11, 2012 by mark4

[keithlucky]

Edited September 11, 2012 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Funny how nobody has mentioned that Arctic Ice has increased in the last 16days!

Edited September 11, 2012 by keithlucky

[snowfluff]

Yes. there was an answer from BFTV and myself a few posts ago and the separate extra rules for this part of the climate forum are here. http://forum.netweat...ion=rules&f=105

These rules are enforced rigidly.

Thanks for the reply, but still cant see where it says in the rules that you "must provide a link to reseach,papers etc"

Yor refered to a post by BFTV, When he said" perceived UNWRITTEN set of rules"

Are we govened by the written rules, or the ones that someone can perceive?

[songster]

Funny how nobody has mentioned that Arctic Ice has increased in the last 16days!

It hasn't. You're linking to the outputs of a model of sea surface temperature. The rest of us are looking at actual measurements of ice concentration.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Funny how nobody has mentioned that Arctic Ice has increased in the last 16days!

They're SST charts Keith, not extent. They were discussed a few pages back, from when Joe B posted them.

Edited September 11, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid