Model Output Discussion - 15th April Onwards

[Summer Sun]

High pressure is shown once more tonight on the 12z run to become more of a feature as we leave April and enter May, coldest May for 100 years...............I don't think so

We are about to enter a pattern change from constant low pressure systems to high pressure having more of a say, the North looks like seeing the best of the weather at first before all the UK enjoys some settled weather, and some much warmer temperatures with the high teens quite likely at times for many

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Edited April 25, 2012 by Gavin D

[Cheshire Freeze]

High pressure is shown once more tonight on the 12z run to become more of a feature as we leave April and enter May, coldest May for 100 years...............I don't think so, we are about to enter a pattern change from constant low pressure systems to high pressure having more of a say, the North looks like seeing the best of the weather at first before all the UK enjoys some settled weather

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Oh how I wish I had the level of success with my winter forecast as I am with the spring one!

No coldest May for 100 years, you're right and tbh I don't know where that signal came from. A fairly typical summer coming up I think.....wet June, middling, mixed July and a warm/hot start to August.

[Scorcher]

Great to see high pressure finally taking over IMO, had enough of the current muck- you just can't do anything for even 5 or 10 minutes without getting rained on. High pressure really takes over next week and dominates right to the end of the GFS 12z run.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO looking good for a pattern change as we leave April and begin May

Edited April 25, 2012 by Gavin D

[Bottesford]

UKMO looking good for a pattern change as we leave April and begin May

That second chart will certainly mean an increase in temperatures but sunshine is unlikely to be in good supply with winds coming off the North Sea like that nor with that low around the SW of England.

Certainly signs of an improvement though at long long last which I can finally pass on to people I know who are now almost asking me daily for any positive weather news - especially the gardeners!

[Robbie Garrett]

Rather Spring like if you ask me....Nothing notably exceptional for May if you ask me.

UK forecast - Day 6 to 15

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Apr 2012 to Wednesday 9 May 2012:

Next week starting generally unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. Southern, eastern and central parts are likely to see some heavy showers with a risk of thunder. This will initially be coupled with brisk winds for some. From the middle of next week onwards, in very broad terms it will be less unsettled than this week, but still with a chance of showers, some heavy and thundery, over eastern, southern and central parts. Northern and western parts probably faring best, conditions here often drier and brighter. North Sea coastal areas likely to be affected by low cloud and occasional sea fog. Generally warmer than of late, with a reduced chance of frost by night, though it will feel quite chilly in eastern coastal areas when conditions are dull.

UK forecast - Day 16 to 30

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 May 2012 to Thursday 24 May 2012:

Changeable weather is likely to continue, although perhaps not quite to the same extent as the last week or so. Showers or longer periods of rain are likely to affect most parts of the UK, but rainfall totals will probably be close to seasonal averages. Between the rain and showers, there should also be some drier and brighter interludes, these perhaps most likely to the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be often close to the seasonal average, and feeling cool in the wind and rain, but should lift above average during any sunnier, more settled periods.

But to sum it up...the idea of settled conditions with a slack low stuck in or near the bay of Biscay means the following.

Monday to Wednesday.

Generally unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. However less unsettled than this week. A chance of showers, some heavy and thundery, over eastern, southern and central parts. Northern and western parts probably faring best, conditions here often drier and brighter. North Sea coastal areas likely to be affected by low cloud and occasional sea fog. Generally warmer than of late, but will feel quite chilly in eastern coastal areas when conditions are dull.

Thursday onwards...

Changeable weather is likely to continue, not quite to the same extent as the last week or so. Showers or longer periods of rain are likely, rainfall totals will probably be close to seasonal averages. Temperatures are likely to be often close to the seasonal average.

[Summer Sun]

ECM follows GFS and UKMO is bringing high pressure to the Northern half early UK next week for the start of May

Edited April 25, 2012 by Gavin D

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM follows GFS and UKMO is bringing high pressure to the UK next week for the start of May

Yes, by no means looking like a locked in dry spell though with HP just too far north to keep LP out for too long. The Azores high (the main instrument for prolonged dry weather) is away to the SW which leaves a gap between HP cells in the Atlantic......the Jet will naturally aim to exploit this weakness which, to me, says that we could return to unsettled weather quite quickly after the proposed drier spell.

Edited April 25, 2012 by CreweCold

[Gowon]

Another day and another set of charts firming up on temps rising for early May and remaining unsettled in the south.

[Summer Sun]

ECM maintains the high pressure tonight for next week with some warmer temperatures

The north could see the best of the dry weather at times next week, but overall a much warmer start to May is on the cards tonight with the potential for some thunder storms at times as well for some lucky people

Edited April 25, 2012 by Gavin D

[phil nw.]

A stronger signal from the 12z outputs for a gradual change to a more anticyclonic outlook as we enter May.

Next weeks frames again show the Easterly setup with High pressure to our north bringing drier conditions for many although the remains of the cutoff upper trough close to the south west will mean showers are still on the cards for parts of England and Wales.

Temperatures likely to be on the up with the chance of some warmer continental air making it`s way to the south east later next week.

Fine detail still to be determined but many areas should see some warm sunshine next week but mist and low cloud may affect eastern coastal districts and maybe further inland night and morning if the flow is more north of east.

Edited April 25, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[ANYWEATHER]

Overall a North/South outcome in the near future. Both Cfs. Gfs and Ecm, hint on this, Charts to Follow.....:-

[Robbie Garrett]

Would love it if the north get a boring dull easterly, whilst us in the south get absolutely drenched in a thundery/humid south/southeasterly. Long may it continue, we need this rain!!!

[SP1986]

The 18z shows an evolution that shows the north would be cool and dry with a high pressure influence. Further south the boundary between warm and cooler air will perhaps result in persistently cold and wet weather (around central England and North Wales), whilst further south warm, humid and showery seems to be the outlook.

[Robbie Garrett]

Just about the smallest Scandinavian high ever!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

The 18z shows an evolution that shows the north would be cool and dry with a high pressure influence. Further south the boundary between warm and cooler air will perhaps result in persistently cold and wet weather (around central England and North Wales), whilst further south warm, humid and showery seems to be the outlook.

Not sure I agree with that at all tbh. Winds become more SE'ly on this run on the 18z for next week thus far and drags the warmer uppers pretty much right over the UK. I feel your posts have been very negative of recent and paint a worse outlook than what is actually shown. Persistent cold and wet? Very unlikely imo however with Lower pressure to the South West some showers/thundery weather will be pushed from the South to many across the country.

Edited April 25, 2012 by Blizzards

[jethro]

Is there really a decent chance of some warmer weather coming up? Please say it is so, this cold, wet stuff is driving me nuts.

[SP1986]

Not sure I agree with that at all tbh. Winds become more SE'ly on this run on the 18z for next week thus far and drags the warmer uppers pretty much right over the UK. I feel your posts have been very negative of recent and paint a worse outlook than what is actually shown. Persistent cold and wet? Very unlikely imo however with Lower pressure to the South West some showers/thundery weather will be pushed from the South to many across the country.

I'm only writing about what the GFS shows in the near-medium timeframe.

You say my posts have been negative, but the maximum of 7C with heavy rain today surely verifies that it has been poor? I won't be optimistic for the sake of being optimistic - besides you can only be pessmistic or optimistic if you have a view on the outlook.

There is very little point in looking past 96 hours currently. What does GFS show to 96 hours? Cool and wet for most, albeit warmer in the south, and drier, but still cool for Scotland.

At this time of the year, if you are under the boundary of warmer and cooler air with heavy rain, the temperature will be depressed, maybe below 10C, and the GFS shows this to be the case in the next 5 days when under rain bands.

[Scorcher]

Not sure I agree with that at all tbh. Winds become more SE'ly on this run on the 18z for next week thus far and drags the warmer uppers pretty much right over the UK. I feel your posts have been very negative of recent and paint a worse outlook than what is actually shown. Persistent cold and wet? Very unlikely imo however with Lower pressure to the South West some showers/thundery weather will be pushed from the South to many across the country.

I agree I think that language is well over the top, it's confusing to new-comers to the models. All models are showing an improved situation temperature wise for most of the UK next week.

[lorenzo]

Would love it if the north get a boring dull easterly, whilst us in the south get absolutely drenched in a thundery/humid south/southeasterly. Long may it continue, we need this rain!!!

Need the rain - you are certainly getting the wish just now. unfair Robbie send us some plume action too please.

Thoroughly minging here thanks. Can only hope this is the bottom out of the muck and its the long trek upwards to the traditional 4 day Scottish Summer c 17/05...

The sooner this sinks...

The Better ! 168 looking like pivotal..

CFS looking less than inspiring that NW incursion will just not let things go as far as cold muck goes....

Edited April 25, 2012 by lorenzo

[Robbie Garrett]

Need the rain - you are certainly getting the wish just now. unfair Robbie send us some plume action too please.

Thoroughly minging here thanks. Can only hope this is the bottom out of the muck and its the long trek upwards to the traditional 4 day Scottish Summer c 17/05...

The sooner this sinks...

The Better ! 168 looking like pivotal..

CFS looking less than inspiring that NW incursion will just not let things go as far as cold muck goes....

I've actually forgot that the hottest day of the year so far is in Scotland. ahah!!! Can you imagine if we had monsoon conditions for the rest of the year, how that'd look in the record books. DAMN!

Looks good for a plume end of the month IMHO, it's been changing every day... everything is looking perfect for potential as far as I am aware for a MCS over France, with a chance of an import into the UK.

[lorenzo]

I've actually forgot that the hottest day of the year so far is in Scotland.

I take it you are referring to our 'summer' - it goes straight from Spring to Autumn up here

[Aaron]

Would love it if the north get a boring dull easterly, whilst us in the south get absolutely drenched in a thundery/humid south/southeasterly. Long may it continue, we need this rain!!!

Is this a windup post or something? What use will thundery downpours do anyway? You need prolonged frontal rainfall I'm afraid.

[ANYWEATHER]

Big difference in the models as early as Monday, as regards later next week, High pressure having less effect even for the North. I think unsettled just about sums it up, IMO!

[tinybill]

carol k on tv saying no let up even talking about a very stong eastly this weekend on the coast should be fun for summer!!!