Coldest May For 100 Years Is On It's Way!

[Aaron]

True, the mean temperature here is lower than that by quite a margin.

[phil nw.]

The lowest is actually 5.6c on the 5th.

Ehh...looking at the CET, perhaps. Scotland and Northern Ireland are running some 2.0c below normal. Britains temperature doesn't revolve solely around the Central England temperature, surprisingly.

True, the mean temperature here is lower than that by quite a margin.

I don`t believe anyone would dispute the colder temps. further north guys.

In fairness though i believe we should stick to the C.E.T. records for historical comparisons-- comparing apples with apples,if you like.

I am sure most posters,like myself who have contibuted, on this thread would have be thinking that anyway.

[Aaron]

All I'm saying is it's a bit misleading to say 'oh, look, the CET is not far from average', that bears little relevance to those of us who live nowhere near the CET zone. One part of the country could have a record warm month while the other has a very cold one - it happens.

Edited May 12, 2012 by Aaron

[4wd]

In fairness though i believe we should stick to the C.E.T. records for historical comparisons-- comparing apples with apples,if you like.

The Met Office do UK averages and regional averages too at month end.

As usual there's a plenty of confusion potential.especially for tabloid reporters

6.8C here so far! This is the coldest May ever recorded*

*Since 2009 - Averages can go up as well as down, other averages may be available.

[Essan]

LOL!

I have told Piers that he'd do better sticking to generalisations - which he doesn't do too bad at (athough I daresay the rest of us could do just as good) and it's when he comes down to specifics that he falls flat ......

I'm still up to eat any hat of his choice though (and £100 to charity) if this is the coldest May in 100 years

[J10]

If we go back to the crux of this thread

*Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%

then surely CET temps are not a bad indication of temps in that area, and certainly better than those in Scotland and Southern Ireland.

At this stage the general theme of a cool/cold May were not that far off, the OTT claims for the coldest May in 100 years, look well OTT.

[phil nw.]

I don`t think i will convince everyone wrt to using one number for comparison ie.CET.

Unless the initial statement re.Coldest May etc. etc. said otherwise then what other figure could be fairly used to compare against the historical records?

As Jackone has pointed out above this would be the closest to the region mentioned anyway.

I am sure that many members can come up with a lower figure for May to date in their region but is there any point in doing this for the purpose of this particular thread?

Anyway i will say no more on this and leave others to judge if there an any merits in using a different figure because for example it happens to be lower than the current CET.

[johnholmes]

True, the mean temperature here is lower than that by quite a margin.

would you like to produce the actual value for your area please?

In another post you suggest your area is nowhere near the CET area?

Perhaps you should look at the original work done that set up the CET area, Lancashire is hardly a long way off Leeds!

The argument some of you are having is not unlike the argument some have in winter that IF the average was over 30 days from one month to another such and such a record would be broken. Unless we have specific definitions then the whole idea of statistics of weather becomes pointless.

[Relativistic]

If we go back to the crux of this thread

*Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%

then surely CET temps are not a bad indication of temps in that area, and certainly better than those in Scotland and Southern Ireland.

At this stage the general theme of a cool/cold May were not that far off, the OTT claims for the coldest May in 100 years, look well OTT.

Hi, I don't post on here much but I just want to clear up something. I think a few people are a bit mislead by the forecast. The Express did the usual and overhyped it and I think a few people were caught up in that. The forecast states an 80% chance for the coldest in 100 years and a 90% chance for this May coming in in the top 5 coldest in 100 years. I don't think anyone should be dismissing the forecast just yet, as it could come in the top 5 coldest quite easily if things remain cool. (I'm not specifying you Jackone, it's just this quote has the forecast in it).

[Relativistic]

Hi, I don't post on here much but I just want to clear up something. I think a few people are a bit mislead by the forecast. The Ex

Sorry about the mistake.

[J10]

Hi, I don't post on here much but I just want to clear up something. I think a few people are a bit mislead by the forecast. The Express did the usual and overhyped it and I think a few people were caught up in that. The forecast states an 80% chance for the coldest in 100 years and a 90% chance for this May coming in in the top 5 coldest in 100 years. I don't think anyone should be dismissing the forecast just yet, as it could come in the top 5 coldest quite easily if things remain cool. (I'm not specifying you Jackone, it's just this quote has the forecast in it).

The forecast says there was an 80% chance of it the coldest May in 100 years, that seems to be OTT. The forecast was deliberately designed to be headline grabbing and I don't think in this instance in this case it was massively Hyped. As I said before if he had gone with the forecast that a cold May was likely then there would not have been a problem.

For the record the coldest May in 100 years is 9.1 and the 5th coldest is 9.8c.

[Robbie Garrett]

Well it's only May 13th, there's plenty more days (weeks even) before you can discount our friend Mr Corbyn.

[Paul]

I think we may as well lock this until the end of the month as judging this/any forecast before the end of the forecast period seems pointless and will just end up going in circles.