Coldest May For 100 Years Is On It's Way!

[phil nw.]

We have to remind ourselves that with the sun much higher in the sky we will get some warm days,even in a cool flow from the North.

Unless we get cloud cover every day with a stiff Arctic flow it`s unlikely we will get close to such a cold May.

Meduim range data suggests the demise of this current trough within the next week or so and some warming from the south as heights rise over Europe sending the jet stream north.

Let`s not let this current protracted cool and wet spell cloud our judgement too much.

Things can change quickly in late Spring as the remnents of the fragmented vortex spill south and warm out.

[TonyH]

Well we can definitely state that no it's not!

Edited May 5, 2012 by TonyH

[Polar Maritime]

Am i right to think that Mr C.... only specified the record to be broken for the East of the UK ? im shure that is what i read, he is very clever with his words, He seems to produce cryptic forcast's.

[Weather-history]

We have to remind ourselves that with the sun much higher in the sky we will get some warm days,even in a cool flow from the North.

Minima will be the key, its true in what you say but in that scenario you will get cold nights. A maximum of 16C and a minimum of 0C will give a mean of 8.0C. So although maxima is not that low the minima will drag it down.

Edited May 5, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Optimus Prime]

Minima will be the key, its true in what you say but in that scenario you will get cold nights. A maximum of 16C and a minimum of 0C will give a mean of 8.0C. So although maxima is not that low the minima will drag it down.

At the same time in order to get a CET min of 0c there will need to be a northerly wind. In this case maxima would probably not exceed 13c. A cold north easterly with cloud cover will give maxima around 11c and minima 4c...that's a CET of 7.5c.

[Summer Sun]

What's the lowest ever CET for May does anyone know?

[AutumnMists]

I believe 8.5'C was recorded in 1698 (This is since 1660).

Can't find any colder since then

[Summer Sun]

I believe 8.5'C was recorded in 1698 (This is since 1660).

Can't find any colder since then

Thanks

[AutumnMists]

If anything we're in for an around average May by the looks of things; a touch below is of course plausible though ...

If it's going to be very cold the models would have told us that by now

[Summer Sun]

If anything we're in for an around average May by the looks of things; a touch below is of course plausible though ...

If it's going to be very cold the models would have told us that by now

Coldest May for 100 years did seem way ott at the time and it still does the CET currently stands at 9.9 and with hints of somthing milder late next week I can see the CET either beign just below or just above average, but coldest May for 100 years no not this year

[Polar Maritime]

“The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds,†says astrophysicist Piers Corbyn of Weatheraction.com. “Snow at times especially on high ground in NE / East.â€

He does not state it is going to be the coldest May for a hundred years.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5

Edited May 5, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Paul]

“The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds,” says astrophysicist Piers Corbyn of Weatheraction.com. “Snow at times especially on high ground in NE / East.”

He does not state it is going to be the coldest May for a hundred years.

http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=450&c=5

Although not categoric, I'd suggest pretty high confidence??

*Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%

As forecasts go, it's going to be a pretty simple one to judge at the end of May is it not? If it comes off then fair play to him, but let's see where we're at come June 1st before passing that judgement?

[Polar Maritime]

I agree Paul that it will be very easy to judge on June the 1st.

Im certainly not sticking up for the fella, but maybe the title of this thread should be "80% chance of the coldest May on record" instead of using a sensational headline that we would read in the tabloids, So that people dont question that it's "on the way" ?

Just a thought

Edited May 5, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[95 Degrees]

If the GFS for the next two weeks comes off then this May won't be the coldest in 100 years, we'll see what happens though.

[roughyed]

Piers is claiming victory. Bit soon after 8 days one would think?

[Summer Sun]

Piers is claiming victory. Bit soon after 8 days one would think?

Far too early I would expect this month to come within 0.7c either side of the average, but It won't be the coldest for 100 years

[Summer Sun]

Well we are now set for the coldest May in 300 years

COLDEST MAY FOR 300 YEARS QUEEN’S JUBILEE A WASHOUT

http://www.dailystar...ilee-a-washout/

[coram]

Well we are now set for the coldest May in 300 years

COLDEST MAY FOR 300 YEARS QUEEN’S JUBILEE A WASHOUT

http://www.dailystar...ilee-a-washout/

Lazy journalism from the Star and lazy reading of the lazy journalism by you. At no point does the article say that it will be the coldest May for 300 years.

[Summer Sun]

Lazy journalism from the Star and lazy reading of the lazy journalism by you. At no point does the article say that it will be the coldest May for 300 years.

Maybe not but they have the headline of COLDEST MAY FOR 300 YEARS QUEEN’S JUBILEE A WASHOUT then the first paragraph says; TORNADOES have hit parts of Britain following warnings of the worst May weather for 300 years.

So its nothing lazy from me thank you its what they (The Daily Star) not me have wrote

[cheeky_monkey]

Maybe not but they have the headline of COLDEST MAY FOR 300 YEARS QUEEN’S JUBILEE A WASHOUT then the first paragraph says; TORNADOES have hit parts of Britain following warnings of the worst May weather for 300 years.

So its nothing lazy from me thank you its what they (The Daily Star) not me have wrote

i did not see any tornadoes on the video that was posted as part of the story?

[A Winter's Tale]

Maybe not but they have the headline of COLDEST MAY FOR 300 YEARS QUEEN’S JUBILEE A WASHOUT then the first paragraph says; TORNADOES have hit parts of Britain following warnings of the worst May weather for 300 years.

So its nothing lazy from me thank you its what they (The Daily Star) not me have wrote

I think we all know what those newspapers are all about when it comes to British weather and I really don't think it's worth reading or copying and pasting onto a weather forum.

Anyway, coldest May for 300 years doesn't mean worst May for 300 years. I would imagine that 40C heat throughout May would result in mass forest and grass fires and a huge increase of eldery deaths across the country whereas the current stuff would mean a few accidents on slippery roads and a few coughs and colds. Anyway, this supposed worst May weather for 300 years ain't that bad, currently blue skies all around outside. I think poor spring's and autumn's aren't quite as disapointing, notable or deadly as the worst summer and winter weather.

Edited May 11, 2012 by A Scottish Winter's Tale

[Roger J Smith]

It's not even the coldest May in 17 years, 1996 was running about 2 deg colder at this point. (see May CET forecast thread for the details). This is, as I speculated, settling into the bottom third range and looks on track to be somewhere between 20th and 40th coldest in a hundred years, unless there is a huge change in either direction after next week. Cold yes, but not really record-breaking cold. There have been days with CET values below 5 C in the past, this month I think the lowest we've seen would be around 7-8 C. As to coldest in 300 years that seems to be a vague reference to the entire CET period where the lowest average was in 1698 (8.5 C). I'm not sure what they were actually thinking about there, but possibly some offhand remark from a source about how so far it was about as warm as that end of month value? That is not a good way to compare data in a spring month when temperatures normally increase with the rising solar angle.

[Aaron]

On one day this month I had a mean temperature below 4C

[Summer Sun]

Well I bet Mr Corbyn is becoming worried now after his quotes in the express saying it would be the coldest May for 100 years the CET is anything but cold its currently running at 9.7c which is just -0.7c below

[Optimus Prime]

There have been days with CET values below 5 C in the past, this month I think the lowest we've seen would be around 7-8 C.

The lowest is actually 5.6c on the 5th.

Well I bet Mr Corbyn is becoming worried now after his quotes in the express saying it would be the coldest May for 100 years the CET is anything but cold its currently running at 9.7c which is just -0.7c below

Ehh...looking at the CET, perhaps. Scotland and Northern Ireland are running some 2.0c below normal. Britains temperature doesn't revolve solely around the Central England temperature, surprisingly.