Coldest May For 100 Years Is On It's Way!

[Scorcher]

Well it's going to take a massive effort for it to beat 1996 that's for sure. Of course nothing can be ruled out but things can change very quickly.

[damianslaw]

I highly doubt we will see the coldest May for 100 years, but as with every statistic is it perfectly plausible, will wait and see..many weren't expecting the coldest december for 100 years back in 2010 and it did happen.

I suspect the suggestion is based on the current model output for the rest of the month which suggests the formation of a strong greenland high and the trough becoming stuck across the country with a cold northerly/northeasterly feed. Northerlies and easterlies reach their yearly maxim in the first half of May, and can dominate the month more so than any other month of the year (though only slightly more than in April).

The last truly cold May was 1996, when we saw northerlies and easterlies dominate as high pressure remained very strong to our NW and NE, northerlies alternating with easterlies and a southerly tracking jet. May 2010 was quite chilly with some very cold nightime minima, but most Mays in the last decade and a half have delivered spells of brilliant sunshine and warm weather, or average temps and wet weather. We are perhaps overdue a cold May with northerlies and easterlies, just as we are overdue a cold April.... but it remains to be seen whether May 2012 is a cold one.

[bobbydog]

apparently the coldest 100 years for 100 years is on its way...

[syed2878]

it's interesting weatheraction made their forecast publick because of its importance so lets waight and c. On the other hand it could just be a publisity. My self wil go by met office and nw forecast.

[Coast]

Hopefully the following figure is an indication of what this May has to beat assuming the thread title comes off:

Lowest daily minimum temperature record — UK

-9.4 °C on 4th May 1941 and 11th May 1941 at Lynford (Norfolk) and on the 15th May 1941 at Fort Augustus, Highland.

(-10.8 °C was recorded at Aonach Mor (1130 m AMSL) and -9.4 °C at Cairngorm summit (1237 m AMSL) on 6 May 1997)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/monthly_temperature_country.html#lowest_daily_minimum_england

[shedhead]

Hopefully the following figure is an indication of what this May has to beat assuming the thread title comes off:

http://www.metoffice...minimum_england

It all depends on how Mr Corbyn chooses to verify come May 31st. Mean temps across the UK as a whole should represent the measure, not individual minima, mean max, mean min, regional variations etc, etc, but I don't think it unfair to say that historically this kind of thing has proven to be something of a moveable feast.

Edited April 20, 2012 by shedhead

[legritter]

if it was now december 20 th ,and a v cold jan was forecast ,we would likely be saying BRING IT ON . but we know in our hearts what would probably happen . reading between the lines the long range outlook models have probably picked  up on a very weak azores high , and stubborn high pressure , across north atlantic  .remember ,lack of low pressure last two yrs  over our east and south ,the balancing act will probably take place this  may ,so i think a very interesting may to come ,BUT NOT NECESSARY A VERY COLD ONE .cheers gang

[Summer Sun]

Well I wouldn't mind these sort of temperature's to kick start this so called coldest May in 100 years

[UV-RAY]

Looking at the MetO latest 16-30 dayer, then maybe Piers won't be too far of the mark!

[Weather-history]

Well I wouldn't mind these sort of temperature's to kick start this so called coldest May in 100 years

Chilly nights those charts

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Gavin must have meant 06Z, charts change on update, thought Gavin wanted a cold may for a time then!

[Summer Sun]

Chilly nights those charts

Those were during the day this morning's 06z 12z run but there not now

Yes that was this morning's 06z

Gavin must have meant 06Z, charts change on update, thought Gavin wanted a cold may for a time then!

Edited April 20, 2012 by Gavin D

[I remember Atlantic 252]

it was deep FI on the 06Z, 12Z suggests very chilly but mostly dry early May

[AderynCoch]

May 1996 was the coldest since 1902.

To add to this I'd say 1902 just about qualifies as being in the "100 years ago" ballpark. Before then you have to go back to 1855 for a colder May (CET), with 1879 and 1885 being equally cold. Therefore it'll have to be the coldest May since 1902 to be the coldest for "100 years".

Note that while the headline on their website states "coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in central and east parts", the postscript states "confidence of E/SE England mean temps: coldest in 100yrs 80%; in 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%" (http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5). Whilst the CET does not equate to E/SE England, it nevertheless correlates fairly well and so provides a decent comparison. So basically WA are 80% confident of the coldest May in E/SE England since 1902.

With this in mind:

May 1996 CET - 9.1

May 1902 CET - 8.9

May 2012 would need a CET of exactly 9.0 to be the coldest for 100 years. Not much room for manoeuvre then! If we decide to narrow it down to two decimal places, then there's only 1.4C of room between 1902 (8.89) and 1996 (9.14).

In conclusion, either WA have some genius method up their sleeve which allows them to be supremely confident or they haven't really thought it through. I strongly suspect the latter.

[Weather-history]

It would be remarkable to get a March with a CET of 8.3C and a May of say 9.0C in the same year. In 1957, May was only 1.1C warmer than the previous March.

[Roger J Smith]

My guess is that the forecast will be partly successful with one or two cold, wet spells but in terms of the month being the coldest in 100 years, I really doubt that in the sort of blocked pattern we are seeing at present, the more likely temperature outcome would be near the 1961-90 normal which is no doubt a little below the 1981-2010 average (haven't looked yet). In fact I'll say 37th coldest in the past 100 years and see how that stacks up. But one or two unseasonably cold days, a bit of snow or sleet -- not out of the question.

[Roger J Smith]

Because of my belief that words mean something, I looked up the stats and for Piers Corbyn to be accurate, the May CET will need to come in below the 9.1 that is currently the coldest since 1912 (a hundred years ago). For my somewhat unresearched comment to be accurate, I will need 11.2 although the ranks get fairly crowded near the median so that would be a tie for 37th with six other years already there. I will report back as to what rank the actual CET value scores in the period 1913-2012 and we'll see if either of the weather wizards came close (this one has been paid nothing by anybody for his wizardry so far).

He does seem to have caught lightning in a bottle by the looks of the current model runs, at least there appears little danger of him missing by 100 or even 80 ranking positions on this one (as per December which must have missed by a few dozen). In my own case, I am not too nervous about 11.2 -- yet. As long as it warms up when the northerly loses interest.

Edited April 28, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[knocker]

I have to admit I find this thread unbelievable. It doesn't deserve an intelligent answer.

[reef]

This is going to be interesting. I've looked at the 10 day forecast from today, on www.yr.no and it predicts the mean temperature for the first nine days in May 2012 in my location to be 6.1 degC. In May 1902, the mean for the first nine days on the CET record was 7.0 degC, and for the first half it was 6.7 degC (coldest first half of May on record).

Maybe we should wait a bit before calling the 'coldest for 100 years' prediction silly ;-)

Indeed, theres no sense in calling a prediction silly, I imagine forecasts of a record warm July in early June 2006 or a sub-zero December in November 2010 would have seemed just as far fetched.

Patterns tend to get stuck in a rut these days, so if it starts off cool like the models are showing, it could potentially end up a pretty cool month. Likewise, it could peter out after a week and end up in the 13s, no one can know.

On a personal note, it would be good to break the duck on both a cold April and May (16 years since either were more than 1C below average) and lead into a warmer summer.

[4wd]

Patterns tend to get stuck in a rut these days,

Good post, but this little phrase is annoying me these days.

Patterns have often tended to get stuck in a rut, there's nothing new or different going on.

That's how we got winter 62/62 and the summer of 1976, plus all the other noteworthy periods which we from time to time come near equaling.

[shedhead]

Because of my belief that words mean something, I looked up the stats and for Piers Corbyn to be accurate, the May CET will need to come in below the 9.1 that is currently the coldest since 1912 (a hundred years ago). For my somewhat unresearched comment to be accurate, I will need 11.2 although the ranks get fairly crowded near the median so that would be a tie for 37th with six other years already there. I will report back as to what rank the actual CET value scores in the period 1913-2012 and we'll see if either of the weather wizards came close (this one has been paid nothing by anybody for his wizardry so far).

He does seem to have caught lightning in a bottle by the looks of the current model runs, at least there appears little danger of him missing by 100 or even 80 ranking positions on this one (as per December which must have missed by a few dozen). In my own case, I am not too nervous about 11.2 -- yet. As long as it warms up when the northerly loses interest.

As I said a little earlier in the thread, this really will come down to which method of verification Mr Corbyn choses to use and I would not expect the CET to be his measure of choice. I suspect he will use whatever is available to justify the forecast, record low daily max, record low overnight min, record regional cold etc, but as ever time will tell.

[Methuselah]

Tbh, I can't see it happening...But I do expect some post hoc attempts at some kind of positive verification.

[Village]

Coldest May For 100 Years Is On It's Way!

There is some merrit to this. We have been in a Meridional synoptic set due to solar cycles for five years now. Therefore, This scenario of a very cold month of May is a possibility with strengthening H/P in the North Atlantic.

[SP1986]

I don't think we will get the coldest May in 100 years, but I do believe we might see one of the coolest and wettest Mays for some time. With no high pressure, settled or realistically warm weather on the horizon, we can expect, I believe, to start where April left off.

I do believe this year will be remembered for it's cool and wet April and May (unless the summer surpasses it in terms cool and wet, which is something that is very possible still)

[Eugene]

This scenario of a very cold month of May is a possibility with strengthening H/P in the North Atlantic.

Yes HP in the north atlantic never really going away on this mornings runs, even the warm looking charts of this week didnt deliver much in the way of warm weather apart from one day here and a few days in parts of northern UK, last two days have been shocking for May, overcast and feeling very cool with no sun whatsoever.