May CET -- Your Forecasts

[Summer Sun]

9.1C to the 5th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Will probably be around 8.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

8.4C to the 7th (7.7)

8.8C to the 8th (11.4)

8.8C to the 9th (9.3)

9.1C to the 10th (11.9)

9.1C to the 11th (8.7)

9.0C to the 12th (7.6)

8.9C to the 13th (8.2)

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 8.7C today (May 1 - 6)

[The PIT]

Sunny old Sheffield at 6.7C which is a huge difference.

Edited May 7, 2012 by The PIT

[SteveB]

8.6C to the 7th, -1.6c

[Roger J Smith]

In case you're wondering, coldest first half of May (in period 1772-present) was in 1902 at 6.9 C for 1-16 or 6.7 C for 1-15.

More recently 1996 managed 7.4 (1-16) which was actually colder than the 7.6 for 1-15. This value continued to fall reaching 7.2 on the 18th (and ending the month at 9.1).

Second coldest first half was 7.0 (1-16 also 1-15) in 1855.

Then changing the filter to first ten days of May, the three lowest were

6.0 in 1782

6.2 in 1879

6.3 in 1856

and 7.0 was the average for 1-10 May in 1996.

[Robbie Garrett]

8.9*C at the moment, will it stay in this region??

[Summer Sun]

8.9 to the 8th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[damianslaw]

Quite warm in CET zone today which will help to push values up closer to the average, but another cooldown is on the way, and I suspect my mid month we will be at least 0.5 - 1 degrees below the average. The odds at this stage are very much for a below average month, but things can change, and a warm/very warm last 10 days would be enough to propel the final figure a bit above average I imagine.

[Paul T]

good predictions from born from the void.

Today felt mild and humid, but wasnt really that warm at all!

9oC up to the 20th, then warmer predicted....me thinks reload of a north/north easterly, as is predicted from monday after the brief High on the weekend.

[SteveB]

9.6c to the 10th, -0.7c

[Summer Sun]

The CET is still going in the right direction up to 9.7c now to the 11th -0.7c below

4 days ago it was at 8.9c

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the 12z GFS, the CET will be at

9.7C to the 12th (9.0)

9.6C to the 13th (8.7)

9.6C to the 14th (9.3)

9.4C to the 15th (7.5)

9.3C to the 16th (6.6)

9.1C to the 17th (7.1)

9.1C to the 18th (8.6)

9.3C to the 19th (12.5)

[Weather-history]

If May comes in under 10.4 then it will be the coolest April-May period since 1986

[damianslaw]

Can't see the CET rising much in the coming days - very likely to be below 10 degrees by the 20th and quite possibly only around the 9 degree mark. Cold nights next week and cold uppers will dent the CET. This month is reminding me of May 96 which only warmed up at the tail end. Good chance this May will be the coldest since 1996.

[SteveB]

9.6c to the 12th, -0.9c

[Eugene]

In case you're wondering, coldest first half of May (in period 1772-present) was in 1902 at 6.9 C for 1-16 or 6.7 C for 1-15.

More recently 1996 managed 7.4 (1-16) which was actually colder than the 7.6 for 1-15. This value continued to fall reaching 7.2 on the 18th (and ending the month at 9.1).

Second coldest first half was 7.0 (1-16 also 1-15) in 1855.

Then changing the filter to first ten days of May, the three lowest were

6.0 in 1782

6.2 in 1879

6.3 in 1856

and 7.0 was the average for 1-10 May in 1996.

Very interesting stats roger, thats quite the rise in May 1996 from the 18th to the 31st just showing how much May warms up in the last few weeks, i expect the same this month, roger any chance you have the list of the top three coldest second half of Mays on record?

Edited May 14, 2012 by Eugene

[reef]

Hadley is 9.7C to the 13th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Weather-history]

Very interesting stats roger, thats quite the rise in May 1996 from the 18th to the 31st just showing how much May warms up in the last few weeks,

It was largely due to the last 3 days of May 1996 that it warmed up. The May CET up to the 28th was just 8.4C, very close to breaking a record, it was the last 3 days that sunk it.

Edited May 14, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Scorcher]

Just shows what an amazing month May 1996 really was, we are way above where May '96 was at this stage. Can still see this month finishing comfortably in double figures.

[Aaron]

May 1996 was ridiculously cold - maximum temperatures of 6C here

[damianslaw]

May 1996 was ridiculously cold - maximum temperatures of 6C here

May 96 brought alot of cloud days with winds often from the north east or east, it was the lack of sunshine which really supressed temps.

This month has seen similiar upper air temps to May 96 so far but more arctic maritime airflow bringing sunshine and more cyclonic conditions with warmer tucked in behind hitting southern parts of the CET zone.

In Scotland and N England this month so far does feel very much like 96.

[Weather-history]

Mid April to mid May is going to turn out chilly.

16th April-15th May 1996 CET: 9.0C

16th April-15th May 2010 CET: 8.8C

16th April-13th May 2012 CET: 8.7C (provisionally)

Edited May 15, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Relativistic]

Mid April to mid May is going to turn out chilly.

16th April-15th May 1996 CET: 9.0C

16th April-15th May 2010 CET: 8.8C

16th April-13th May 2012 CET: 8.7C (provisionally)

Do you have any stats on the coldest ever 16th April to 15th May period?

[Summer Sun]

9.7c to the 14th -0.9 below