Atlantic Storms And Lows - Summer 2012

[Robbie Garrett]

Thought I'd post a new topic for the current meteorological season.

Some interesting weather coming up... (Summer Monsoons/Depressions)

[wimblettben]

The GFS model has been showing quite a windy spell of weather possibly for Friday for a few days now.

If it comes off then there could be 35-45mph gusts for southern England Inland and higher on the coasts.

[Methuselah]

I think that 'Summer Monsoon' sums-up the next two weeks' weather quite nicely...

[Robbie Garrett]

The GFS model has been showing quite a windy spell of weather possibly for Friday for a few days now.

If it comes off then there could be 35-45mph gusts for southern England Inland and higher on the coasts.

I think that 'Summer Monsoon' sums-up the next two weeks' weather quite nicely...

Never underestimate the power of the Summer Monsoons, would be quite nice to get some ex-tropical stuff blasting up this way pretty soon... that itself can change weather patterns!!!

[Aaron]

The June monsoon? Like June 2007?

Sadly our monsoon ain't the thundery or torrential type like in Florida or India, just cold rain.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I hope this is just a blip

Little way off yet but :S

[wimblettben]

I hope this is just a blip

Little way off yet but :S

This low is starting to look a little worrying actually.

If that comes off there will easily be tree damage considering they are in fall leaf now.

[Robbie Garrett]

Definitely a very unsettled period this will be... Lots of reservoir topping up rainfall.

[Zenarcher]

A interesting low pressure system will make its way over Southern parts of the UK on Thursday and Friday this week.

First lets see what each model currently says about how low it will get,

GFS 980mb

ECM 980mb

GEM 985mb

NOGAPS 985mb

UKMO 985mb

JMA 990mb

Met Office statement,

Rather cool, windy and very unsettled, with rain spreading across the country on Thursday. Further wind, rain or heavy showers thereafter. A risk of gales in the south on Friday.

Will do a more into depth post nearer the time I think the rain totals and top wind gusts will be interesting especially for June.

[Zenarcher]

Met Office have issued a warning for Thursday and Friday

Southwesterly gales are likely to develop across much of southwest England during Thursday afternoon and extend into parts of south Wales on Thursday evening. The public should be prepared for disruption to travel and outdoor activities. Damage to trees may also occur. The gales are also likely to be accompanied by heavy rain.

This warning has been upgraded to Amber for Cornwall, The Isles of Scilly, and parts of Devon.

More >> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

[January Snowstorm]

Am surprised there's so little interest in tonights system

I suppose it's more hitting Ireland, looks like there could be 4 inches of rain in my area

[Liam J]

Very unseasonable weather hitting the S & SW UK over the next few days courtesy of a very deep depression developing. Gale force winds with gusts around 60mph possible over exposed areas, not good news for the trees as most are now in full leaf which will be acting like a sail in the wind.... Also very heavy rainfall associated with this system.

[Cloud 10]

80 mph gusts maybe for the most exposed places on the south-west coast?

[Robbie Garrett]

Does look a slight beast on satellite, oddly enough looks nothing like an extra-tropical cyclone but more like a tropical depression forming into tropical storm more than anything else.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

[ZONE 51]

It is June and we are seeing something arriving on the doorstep that is usually seen from october to march generally-and not always from the direction it is coming from(sw) this is a storm system that is developing, this in winter would cause some disruption, the flooding from the rainfall would be evident in any month this type of storm came in, it would be very noticable, but today we are in full leaf, it is the time of year where we are not expecting these storms to appear, the concern being from fallen trees affecting rail and road, the trees more easily falling due to full leaf cover-more area for the wind to push on, and falling onto power lines, more outside events to get canceled, All this over the next two days, thursday and friday this week is likely to be distruptive for many areas, if the winds don't affect your area then the rain might well cause problems, some places are likely to experience both severe rains and severe winds, resulting in siginificant distruption.

Some areas are likely to see prolonged heavy rainfall resulting in floods, also torrential rains in places,

not all areas seeing many many hours of heavy rain, but quite likely bands of heavy downpours.

please keep watch on the weather warnings and see if your area is at risk.

I have created two maps here, one is for rainfall and another for the winds

Rainfall Warning

Gale Warning

[Coast]

I've been following progress and posting in the SE and EA regional thread, but here are a few pointers from me for overnight as I might be in one of the areas of greatest risk in the early hours through rush hour:

runs through the morning:

GFS now has the main gusts slightly further North:

Gusting over 90 km/h through Essex and East Anglia?

Hi res HiRALM has the action still along the Channel coasts and inland from there:

Batten down the hatches, it's more like January than June!!!

[johnholmes]

I'm glad its the Channel tunnel this afternoon and not the ferry I'm using!

[Coast]

I'm glad its the Channel tunnel this afternoon and not the ferry I'm using!

Wise decision John, don't forget the duty free!

[Team Jo]

Might be a good idea to take the bunting down (if like me you haven't) and not park the car under that precariously looking tree.....

Looking quite feisty on the extra radar already - will have this on my desktop running all day!

This should be interesting tonight - I'm in the process of having building done on the house, and there are lots of bits of Tarpaulin etc covering stuff up. Flap flap!

[tinybill]

looking at the radar lot of wild weather leaving france should get interesting in the south and east of the uk later!!

[Aaron]

Great time to be on the South Coast.. wish I was there right now (not being sarcastic either!)

[Coast]

Great time to be on the South Coast.. wish I was there right now (not being sarcastic either!)

Something looks like its on it's way, will it get here?

There is certainly a lot forecast for later:

[Bobby]

Currently very heavy rain here from this second pulse, 25mm already with another 2 inches or so forecast to be on the way.

Met Office Amber warnings for flooding and wind damage are out.

[Sainsbo]

Doesn't look like it will effect this part of the Southwest too badly.. Meant to have about an inch of rain later, and some 40-50mph gusts, but that's about it. But 980mb - Isn't that like a December/January thing? O_o

[Mapantz]

Winds haven't really started here yet, but it's very wet.