Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

[Chris K]

I find the GFS charts for the CAPE & Li values vary a fair bit sometimes even on the same day as the potential storm event, so i wouldn't go off on rants quite yet. Plus, as i'm sure most of you are aware, you need to look at other factors in addition.

People have been mentioning an easterly drift & possible downgrades of the potential for the last couple of days, so I was fully expecting it. Plus for some areas in the W/SW - surely Weds night still looks decent with energy coming up from the S (although modelled PPn seems quite scarce at the moment)?

Even thursday still looks good albeit slightly further East going by the 06z run ONLY. And it could even shift back a bit West again over the next couple of days or so.

I'm not falling into the trap of getting excited then frustrated over a giant storm fail again! MetOffice still having me down for grey cloud anyway (not sure how often it updates)...

[Coast]

OK, really, this is a thread about convective weather - potential and actual, 'as it happens'. As pointed out already, there is a dedicated thread for moaning about not getting convective weather and for the record, I'm in the SE and have had one distant rumble in 2012 but I'm not complaining about it!

This thread seems to generally run along very well, no matter where you are in the UK, so can we keep things light and frothy please and not aim blows at our geogrphcial neighbours or those that just happen to have been favoured by nature recently or even more often???

I still believe the weather is generally not a spiteful thing and does not have a 'will' to deprive or favour some enthusiasts!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Hardly bragging is it? come on...

I can name a number of different types of weather conditions I like and probably many members like, but hardly get being this side of the Pennines and protected by them, very heavy rain and strong Atlantic depressions.... I love severe gales and torrential rain, but the guys in west and NW get it all because they are exposed too it.

The reason why the East are getting the storms is purely down to the weather patterns, something in which none of us can control, the pattern of the Jet and the angle/orientation of the low pressure systems is why the East stand the greatest chance of having thunderstorms.

This is one thing that let's the forums down, thinking there is some kind of biased view on things and gloating, hardly the case. A lot of members live in the East and SE, London and the Home counties being the largest populated areas.

Lewis

Good comment Lewis, Until yesterday I'd not had a storm for almost a couple of years, and I live almost as far east as you can. My storm shield managed to keep them out with alarming frequency.

So let's all look forward to Thursday, it looks as though it will kick off in the south west, so many areas may see something

[Coast]

OK, no posts have been deleted, but if you can't find it here, you'll know where it's gone eh???

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72153-the-no-storms-club-2012/

[weatherobsuk]

You can have CAPE like this, ppn forecasts and frontal analysis like were seeing up to Thursday but in the end it all has to fall in place. As i'm sure a few of us are quite aware after last years fluke which had over 2500kj into southern Lincs and all we saw at the end of the day was a few clouds and drizzle.

Be cautious is my advice as when Thursday comes it'll be down to the usual nowcasting in determining wether the hype lives up to its expectation.

[Andy Bown]

There is also the worry that an overnight MCS into the SW could mean a lot of cloud cover on Thursday morning.

I'll bank the overnight MCS for the SW !!

[Muffelchen]

And a warm welcome to NetWeather's very own Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

I bet you had to olook up how to spell that

Am working down in Bishop's Stortford on Thursday so fingers crossed. I am am working outside though and driving down and back in the day..hmmmmmmm. be careful whay you wish for....!

[lewisosd]

I'm not even going to batter an eyelid with this potential. Going to look at models Wednesday morning and that's it. Remember 'Frenchy' last year?!!!

Edited June 25, 2012 by lewisosd

[Eskimo]

I bet you had to olook up how to spell that

Am working down in Bishop's Stortford on Thursday so fingers crossed. I am am working outside though and driving down and back in the day..hmmmmmmm. be careful whay you wish for....!

You'll be working within a few miles of where I live, nice little town Stortford!

[Hodgheg]

Looking good for thursday but im worried its a bit too close to call. Think i will stop model watching untill wednesday night just to avoid the stress

[Mapantz]

MetO warnings out. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

[Lewis]

MetO warnings out. http://www.metoffice...ather/warnings/

Only for the NW at the moment.

[Steve C]

You'll be working within a few miles of where I live, nice little town Stortford!

I once had a night in Bishops Stortford, when I missed my holiday flight! I only live 3/4 hour from Stansted, but didn't want to go back home.

[Coast]

In a bid to remain positive (but still secretly excited at the potential so far!!), have a look at the dew-points along the Channel on Thursday - am I reading those right??!!!!!

[VillagePlank]

Why did my thread disappear regarding this Thurs potential disappear and get merged?

This is a perfect example of GFS overdoing it, lots of ramping, then lots of come down with an opportunity to explain how it works as we move into the warmer parts of the summer. In case it's lost on some, temporal changes in model output actually mean something to some.

[stop deleting my comments - especially without explaining why]

Edited June 25, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Aaron]

I had a dew point of 20C back in May.. so I don't see why not.

[paul m]

Dejavous. Its El Gordo all over again lol

[Supacell]

Looking good for thursday but im worried its a bit too close to call. Think i will stop model watching untill wednesday night just to avoid the stress

But Wednesday day has potential for a lot of us.

And yes Paul, looks very El Gordo from last year (although i think we were up at around 31c on that day). Problem was is i set up in Cambridgeshire as a start point, waited all day, and nothing happened. I headed home disappointed just for there to be big storms in the SE the following day.

Note to myself, if nothing happens on Thursday - don't come home

Edited June 25, 2012 by Supacell

[Lewis]

Hi guys, I just updated my severe weather summary

http://www.null/

[Mapantz]

Definitely a decent risk now, especially across the east midlands, running up to parts of yorkshire on Thursday, severe storms possible with a tornado formation risk too.

Edited June 25, 2012 by Mapantz

[Steve C]

Hi guys, I just updated my severe weather summary

http://www.null/

Thanks for posting.

How do you define 'severe thunderstorms?' Is it the same classification as used by American meteorologists?

[Staffordshire]

Will it be a southerly wind thursday or?....

[Coast]

looks very El Gordo from last year

[Deluxe]

Hi guys, I just updated my severe weather summary

http://www.null/

Nice summary Lewis, although I would have taken the storm risk closer to the Scottish border (eastern side)

[Keraunic]

I have lived in EA for eleven years and these are the T Stoms I can remember here;

July 2002

July 2003

May and July 2004

July 2005

September 2006

These in the Lowestoft and Norwich area. Not that many for EA really considering we are supposed to be the hot spot for storms. If anyone can remember any more, feel free to add.