Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

[Robbie Garrett]

Yep, have to agree with their thinking.

Most certainly, this is what the models are currently showing. However http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=map synopsis 1300 Thursday does show a kink in the pressure to our south which probably will mean the best areas are nern France and into Benelux, in terms of some proper plume directions......

It's a more so, sit up and watch, play and wait game this one.... nothing is certain that all that CAPE will explode regardless of what that cold front does.

Definitely a bit complex at the moment.

[Muffelchen]

No word of a lie I didn't! I am quite interested in politics so its a name that I read a lot

More power to your elbow man. There is no way I could ever spell that!

I can just about spell thunderstrom

[Mapantz]

Yep, have to agree with their thinking.

The best places were always going to be slightly further north. But there's also a risk of scattered storms in other places, and elevated lightning early on for areas further south and west.

The risk of 'something' for some people is the highest it has been for quite some time.

[Raidan]

Hi guys,I'm really interested in this possible thunderstorm event but I'm looking to be in France for it not the uk,I was wondering if anyone had any suggestions for best places to go for this storm chase so I can sort and book things,I'm thinking of leaving wednesday afternoon and coming back Thursday night,also if anyone comes across cheap travel please throw that in to lol:)

[Lewis]

here's my summary guys for this weeks potential.

http://www.null/

Slight downgrades today, but it's expected, still enough energy to generate some nasty storms though!

Lewis

Edited June 25, 2012 by Humber

[Supacell]

Hi guys,I'm really interested in this possible thunderstorm event but I'm looking to be in France for it not the uk,I was wondering if anyone had any suggestions for best places to go for this storm chase so I can sort and book things,I'm thinking of leaving wednesday afternoon and coming back Thursday night,also if anyone comes across cheap travel please throw that in to lol:)

I don't know France as I have never been there but are you planning on taking a car over with you? I have done some research into travel as it has been a plan of mine.

The cheapest way to get over the channel is by ferry from Dover to Dunkirk. It works out around £44 return if doing a short journey as you are planning. However, depends if you are willing to drive all the way to Dover in order to take this option.

The other option could be a ferry from Portsmouth to Cherbourg but is much more expensive at around £150, so would probably be cheaper driving to Dover.

Of course it is where the best place is for thunderstorms also, and on Weds night (although subject to change) the best areas would be NW France and so once over in Calais you would have to drive across here and back again to get home. Could work out an expensive trip with a lot of driving.

Alternatively you could go over on Thursday for a Thursday night over in Belgium to catch the storms we will be watching over the Low Countries and crying about missing back here in the UK

Edited June 25, 2012 by Supacell

[wimblettben]

I would say to the majourity of people in here to just wait and see what happens on the day and don't check the charts.

I say this because it is likely to get very stressful with upgrades and downgrades constantly. You only have to look at last year to see that the charts are not always right.

[Methuselah]

I would say to the majourity of people in here to just wait and see what happens on the day and don't check the charts.

I say this because it is likely to get very stressful with upgrades and downgrades constantly. You only have to look at last year to see that the charts are not always right.

It's like watching England on TV, ben...It's the stress that makes it all worthwhile.

[Supacell]

Probably wise to keep an eye on the ECMWF and UKMO until we get to within the meso. model timeframe, given that the GFS looks like the one playing "catch up". The euro models' 12z outputs have an even quicker eastward transfer of the sfc trough/CF compared to the GFS's revisions over the past few runs.

Might not make a difference in terms of storm coverage, though, as high 850hPa theta-e 'plume' and generally moisture-rich low level air mass should favour thunderstorm development even away from hours of peak diurnal heating.

Nice clockwise-curved hodographs for the period question, with veering and strengthening flows with height and backing of the sfc wind ahead of pre-frontal shortwave troughs and CF. Add strong insolation into the mix and it's a favourable environment for multicells and supercells.

Too much detail, I know.

What sort of time is this referring too. Your comment of not requiring diurnal heating makes me think you are talking about an overnight period?

[Robbie Garrett]

Probably wise to keep an eye on the ECMWF and UKMO until we get to within the meso. model timeframe, given that the GFS looks like the one playing "catch up". The euro models' 12z outputs have an even quicker eastward transfer of the sfc trough/CF compared to the GFS's revisions over the past few runs.

Might not make a difference in terms of storm coverage, though, as high 850hPa theta-e 'plume' and generally moisture-rich low level air mass should favour thunderstorm development even away from hours of peak diurnal heating.

Nice clockwise-curved hodographs for the period question, with veering and strengthening flows with height and backing of the sfc wind ahead of pre-frontal shortwave troughs and CF. Add strong insolation into the mix and it's a favourable environment for multicells and supercells.

Too much detail, I know.

Could do with a much needed overnight MCS me thinks.... Don't think London has ever got a supercell, probably has but not to my memory.

[wimblettben]

It's like watching England on TV, ben...It's the stress that makes it all worthwhile.

I don't know why you would say that stress makes it worthwhile.

To me the chance of seeing thunder and lightning in front of me and not on a TV screen is what makes it worthwhile.

[Harry]

Concur with Weather09 - the plume will provide some VERY unstable air indeed! If the MetO say rain/showery rain for your area Weds/Thurs, you're in the running IMO

Still far too early for any firmness in the forecast....one thing not to overlook in any forecast is the appearance of short wave trough features which have a habit of appearing at very short notice and are frequently the source of some of our bes storms!!!

Interesting few days in any case, even if some/many may end up disappointed

Could do with a much needed overnight MCS me thinks.... Don't think London has ever got a supercell, probably has but not to my memory.

I'm certain it has....just couldn't be sure of dates

[Methuselah]

I don't know why you would say that stress makes it worthwhile.

To me the chance of seeing thunder and lightning in front of me and not on a TV screen is what makes it worthwhile.

Because I've been storm-watching for years - and hoping for many more. It's the suspense, I guess. But I do know what you're saying.

[Harry]

What sort of time is this referring too. Your comment of not requiring diurnal heating makes me think you are talking about an overnight period?

With airmasses as unstable as what we have coming up, it takes very little for the atmosphere go bang - sea breeze CZ, outflow from adjacent cells, orographic lift, solar heating, fronts, troughs...you name it and with atmosphere so unstable it can go pop!!!

Question is.....where, when and if!?!?!?

[Staffordshire]

Well, atm, perhaps more mid-late morning period going by the quicker solutions from the ECM and UKMO. With a warm, moisture-rich low level air mass, insolation becomes less of a requirement as more moisture increases latent instability - that is, air parcels, once they've reached the LFC, can release more latent heat in their vicinity once condensed, thus keeping them more buoyant (less dense) than the surrounding environment.

As I say though, can see there being considerable changes on the next few model runs lol.

i know models change, eastward shifts, income fronts, bladyblady blar, but what do you recon the outcome will be on the day, (where storms will be) i know you are very experienced and i was just wondering! Cheers pal!

[Team Jo]

Anyone remember Frenchie from last year..?. That was a corking non event! - don't think it was the same as el gordo, althought might have been a SE regional thread thing...

I don't have the confidence to forecast much more than 48 hours ahead, and even then I keep changing it, but this is the thing I love about weather! It keeps us all on our toes. - for now I think it's all to play for, I think a few of us might have something worthwhile. Fortunate enough to be working from home thus wek so have a whole rig set up just to follow everything.

At the moment, l'm looking forward to the developing situation, we all know it'll up and downgrade as Coast says, and certainly for me the soap opera And banter on here beforehand is what makes any significant event that much more special. (and the videos and photos., and tweets)

I'm wittering. Blame Wine!

[Raidan]

Thanks Supacell for your info much appreciated,I'm not looking to drive around just looking to get myself in a good place to be if this event comes off,I'm looking at flying from Bristol to a location in France where storms could be quite active,so basically rather than looking for the storms be somewhere where they come to me.

[Kain]

We will all be excited and nothing happens. It happens a few times a year on the forums. Were all in arms and can't wait and we end up with some damp squb from france and we have nore sferics from our gas cooker sparks.

I love to be wrong though!

[95 Degrees]

Although storms are rare these days, I must admit that El Gordo event last year was memorable, very loud thunder and even took out our internet connection for almost an hour with one massive strike, not looking at too many charts as I expect a bust but if there is potential still on Thursday then I may be watching and waiting.

[Robbie Garrett]

With airmasses as unstable as what we have coming up, it takes very little for the atmosphere go bang - sea breeze CZ, outflow from adjacent cells, orographic lift, solar heating, fronts, troughs...you name it and with atmosphere so unstable it can go pop!!!

Question is.....where, when and if!?!?!?

You say a trigger,

How about a little disturbance in the bay of biscay area??

MCS/MCC complex kicking off early Thursday Morning?

[Kain]

You say a trigger,

How about a little disturbance in the bay of biscay area??

MCS/MCC complex kicking off early Thursday Morning?

Robbie don't you say every 'storm day' its a MCS Like your enthusiasm though!

[Robbie Garrett]

Robbie don't you say every 'storm day' its a MCS Like your enthusiasm though!

Nope lol, but in that sort of situation you'd want an MCS

Nothing beats it!!

Edited June 25, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Kain]

Nope lol, but in that sort of situation you'd want an MCS

Nothing beats it!!

I know, shame we don't get enough of em!

[Robbie Garrett]

I know, shame we don't get enough of em!

Best areas for this may be the South West initially and later London and Essex/Kent etc.... will be interesting if something can kick off Wednesday Night.

[Kain]

Best areas for this may be the South West initially and later London and Essex/Kent etc.... will be interesting if something can kick off Wednesday Night.

Well I can garantee we wont get anything up here in the west mids - Or Shropshire to be exact, but going to be interested to see how it all pans out. I want to try out my new DSLR for lighting!

Could be in for a long wait though! Doh!