Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Coast]

On the plus side, smiley Carol hasn't mentioned the H word at all this morning

Neither have any forecaster on the BBC South East today slots??? Do they know something or just being reserved???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

SE looks to miss out, all to the north and west, Wimbledon should have a rain free day tomorrow, although patchy rain moving through brfore play starts

[Coast]

Dew-points already looking high:

[Norfolk Sheep]

Neither have any forecaster on the BBC South East today slots??? Do they know something or just being reserved???

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

She's just said it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dan the Man]

On the plus side, smiley Carol hasn't mentioned the H word at all this morning

She certainly has.

Just seen the BBC Breakfast forecast - it certainly looks a H word here in the South Midlands tomorrow late morning.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Dan the Man

[Liam J]

A few NMM charts for Thursday afternoon, certainly looks like areas further north and west are in the most favoured position for some lively weather atm.

Very intense downpours for the NW.

Humidity levels high

Vertical vorticity off the scale.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Liam J

[Evening thunder]

Good prospects for a lot people over the next 48hours and the bbc forecasts are now on board also with thundery downpours being mentioned for both today and tomorrow.

Today i will be out chasing around Lincolnshire as it is looking like the prospect of some storms developing across the East Midlands, Lincolnshire and northern half of Norfolk. These could then move up towards East Yorkshire later. I don't think they will be severe in nature but could still contain some decent lightning. The main threat from these will be large rainfall totals - and the slow moving nature of them will add to this risk (but make it easier for chasing). I will be avoiding cities on my chase as do not want to end up caught up in traffic going to see the olympic torch as it travels around Lincolnshire today

The level 1 from Estofex is more in relation to the overnight period. My initial plan was to head down towards the SW (specifically around Dorset) for an overnight chase but the latest charts from Hirlam (18z) and GFS (00z), although still showing great potential for an MCS, put the best storms being over N England tomorrow around midday/early afternoon and moving up into the NE - so on this basis i would be best served to save petrol and stay local. My final decision regarding tonight will be made on the basis of the 06z suites. I would fully expect Estofex to issue a level 1 for the eastern half of the country later on tonight for tomorrow.

That may be the best decision about not chasing down here, if it was me it would have to be a pretty good show to go that far anyway but also unless something acts to clear it, you might not be able to see much any mid-level storms or MCS due to all this low cloud we've been having the last 2 days! It might clear as I've known it to before with a little more disturbance but who knows.

Then as you say the NE looks good later which you would have to race back up north to catch.

None the less I'm hopeful of something, even a storm with low cloud below it would be good considering the lack of them recently, though I'm not too sure they will initiate early enough for me or in the right area of course. I guess I may have to do an early morning mini-chase at about 4am if I see a batch of storms is going to hit somewhere 20 miles away or something!

[Lewis]

Big downgrade for Thursday across East Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire, with much EA and the SE missing out on the action completely according to the NMM.

As the energy transfers East and North eastwards, the precipitation is expected to weak/fizzle out maintaining it's intensity across NW areas and N Yorkshire.

Lewis

[Coast]

Come on, just push a bit more please!!!!

[Keraunic]

I give up. *sigh*

[Harry]

I give up. *sigh*

Why??? Because a few northerners are rejoicing in SOME models' reluctance to provide goods for the SE???? Pah!!!!

Let's just wait and see what the days bring shall we??? These assumptions are based on 00z models, of which the 06z's will be out very soon, then the 12z, then the 18z, and so on (you catch my drift!!)

[Coast]

I'm still optimistic that whatever is coming, has to pass over this area and might just kick off!!

Looking at a few charts today, I think I would have to get up onto high ground and look out toward the Channel to see the action as it gets going over France. Not sure about the CIN down here dampening things:

[Keraunic]

Why??? Because a few northerners are rejoicing in SOME models' reluctance to provide goods for the SE???? Pah!!!!

Let's just wait and see what the days bring shall we??? These assumptions are based on 00z models, of which the 06z's will be out very soon, then the 12z, then the 18z, and so on (you catch my drift!!)

Erm, I do but.......what ARE these 06z's et al? Is there a link to point me in the right direction to see these models. Sorry, but I'm really new to all this and I want to KNOW.

[Kain]

Morning all, let me just expand ESTOFEX to get that detail:

UKASF say:

Nothing from SkyWarn or TORRO just yet, I'll go and dig out some charts to consider shortly.

They can go do one, North and South of me with a little band inbetween where I am! I know Bridgnorth's storm shield is strong, but it aint THAT strong!

[Stuart]

I give up. *sigh*

dont worry I give up to

[Muffelchen]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

She's just said it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What is the H word? Surely not Humidity?

Certainly is humid here: temp 19.9°C with a DP of 16.8°C.

[Norfolk Sheep]

What is the H word? Surely not Humidity?

Certainly is humid here: temp 19.9°C with a DP of 16.8°C.

"Humdinger" - Carol Kirkwood has a habit of wrecking any chance of a storm anywhere as soon as she says it As she has now done that, expect nothing more than warm drizzle

[A.J]

What is the H word? Surely not Humidity?

Certainly is humid here: temp 19.9°C with a DP of 16.8°C.

Can't sat the actual word because it will jinx any chance of storms....but it rhymes with 'bum ringer'....lol

[Coast]

[Deluxe]

Still looks promising up here. BBC graphics showed an intense thundery band starting in the SW and tracking north-eastwards through Thursday, affecting many areas of England, except the south-east where instead thundery showers are expected to develop.

I think Carol's forecast won't be too far off the mark

[A.J]

"Humdinger" - Carol Kirkwood has a habit of wrecking any chance of a storm anywhere as soon as she says it As she has now done that, expect nothing more than warm drizzle

that's it, well done, you've gone and jinxed it!.....look look everyone! if we don't get any storms we can all blame 'Norfolk Sheep!'

[Deluxe]

that's it, well done, you've gone and jinxed it!.....look look everyone! if we don't get any storms we can all blame 'Norfolk Sheep!'

I blame Norfolk Sheep for jinxing my stormchase/wildlife trip to Wicken Fen last year

[Kain]

that's it, well done, you've gone and jinxed it!.....look look everyone! if we don't get any storms we can all blame 'Norfolk Sheep!'

Well I know where to complain to then, works for me!

[Harry]

Erm, I do but.......what ARE these 06z's et al? Is there a link to point me in the right direction to see these models. Sorry, but I'm really new to all this and I want to KNOW.

The 'z' simply refers to the time of day that the data was captured to formulate those charts (I think, lol)

For example, if you look back at the charts Coast posted earlier indicating CIN (convection inhibition) you will see 00z at the top left...this indicates that the data used to formulate those charts was captured at midnight last night (meaning that for all intents and purposes they are 10 hours out of date).

Some charts have a 'z' figure at the top right hand side also - this indicates the time of day the forecast chart applies too....so, one of Coast's charts has Wed 27/6 00z in the top left and the Thu 28/6 10z....this means that the data used to generate the chart was captured at midnight on Weds 27th June and the chart reflects what the computer THINKS will happen at 10am on Thursday 28th.

Longwinded I know but it took me a while to get used to it all way back when I was a fledgling fanatic

Hope that helps.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Harry

[Keraunic]

Lol. It's like the H word is this forums Macbeth, or The Scottish Play with thespians.