Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Norfolk Sheep]

that's it, well done, you've gone and jinxed it!.....look look everyone! if we don't get any storms we can all blame 'Norfolk Sheep!'

Reverse psychology - if I say it as well it cancels out Carol

I blame Norfolk Sheep for jinxing my stormchase/wildlife trip to Wicken Fen last year

ooh, harsh!! You saw lots of wildlife anyway (including me)

[Keraunic]

@ Harry. Thank you matey. That certainly does help.

[Supacell]

Met office rainfall predictor thingy does not show any storms across England today and tomorrow just the far west and north - totally at odds with the BBC forecast and i thought the met office and bbc were essentially the same?

With regards to Carol's "bumringers" - where did she say they would be? As everywhere else could still get something even if the area she says has a cool foggy day with temperatures hovering around 10c

[Dan the Man]

Lol. It's like the H word is this forums Macbeth, or The Scottish Play with thespians.

Hot potato, orchestra stalls, Puck will make amends!

[Deluxe]

ooh, harsh!! You saw lots of wildlife anyway (including me)

Very true Didn't get a photo though, you were too quick

[Harry]

Met office rainfall predictor thingy does not show any storms across England today and tomorrow just the far west and north - totally at odds with the BBC forecast and i thought the met office and bbc were essentially the same?

With regards to Carol's "bumringers" - where did she say they would be? As everywhere else could still get something even if the area she says has a cool foggy day with temperatures hovering around 10c

Exactly what I was thinking......even in this timeframe, considerable model disagreement.

Furthermore, the MetO forecast map is completely at odds with Estofex's forecast....everyone saying different things....AAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

[Coast]

The 'z' simply refers to the time of day that the data was captured to formulate those charts (I think, lol)

Zulu time: http://wwp.greenwich...m/info/zulu.htm

The number is the hour that the forecast is for, or, on the other side the hour which the model sequence was run.

It's all very exciting at the moment, will we, won't we???? Personally I'm just staying calm about things.......

[NUT]

We keep getting bursts of heavy rain here. Won't be to tomorrow but expecting a few very big heavy bursts of rain when everything perhaps all combines

[Methuselah]

Zulu time: http://wwp.greenwich...m/info/zulu.htm

The number is the hour that the forecast is for, or, on the other side the hour which the model sequence was run.

It's all very exciting at the moment, will we, won't we???? Personally I'm just staying calm about things.......

Is he on the Coast Diet?

[Keraunic]

Hot potato, orchestra stalls, Puck will make amends!

Ha ha! Blackadder of course. Brilliant.

[Coast]

Is he on the Coast Diet?

Let me tell you Pete, stress works!!!

We only want this to hop 25 miles or so, is that too much to ask??!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 00z completely rids here of any potential for this afternoon and is more risky for overnight, doing another Easterly shift. However the NMM etc look good.

[Harry]

I've decided to update my forecast chart from yesterday, covering Weds 12z to Thursday 18z.

You'll notice the slight shift!

[Coast]

A couple of different charts to consider (or not?)

KO Index = blue lines with values. (S = >+6 = stable, L = < -6 = unstable).

Vertical motion forced by dynamical forcing at 500 hPa = zones in color (hPa/hour).

Critical values KO.

> 6: no potential risk thunderstorms.

2-6: small potential risk for thunderstorms.

< 2: potential risk for thunderstorms.

Vertical motion: large negative values = strong ascent

Combination of both:

Stable KO region + negative motion = frontal zone. If the negative motion is positioned on a strong gradient in the KO indices between a stable and unstable zone: front is potentially unstable with risk for severe embedded thunderstorms

Unstable KO region + negative motion = active upper trough with risk severe thunderstorms

Unstable KO region without negative motion = air mass instability which may produce thunderstorms due to diurnal heating (mainly in the afternoon)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A couple of different charts to consider (or not?)

The top chart -46 right over my house..Is that good ?

[Kain]

EASTERLY SHIFT

effing hell and all that. Norfolk Sheep....What you doing to me man! Lol

[Harry]

A couple of different charts to consider (or not?)

Well that's confusing...I interpret those charts as the areas we thought were most at risk of storms based on 00z charts are areas of greatest stability (blue zones)....but with crazy ascent values?????

Doing my nut in LOL! I must be seriously reading those charts above wrongly!

Edited June 27, 2012 by Harry

[Paul]

The risk tomorrow is going to be a nightmare to forecast - latest meto modelling downgrades it a tad...

For those who maybe aren't into chart viewing but would like some additional local info on cape, dewpoints and storm risk percentage - we've just updated our storm risk forecast page:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;sess=

[Coast]

Doing my nut in LOL! I must be seriously reading those charts above wrongly!

The risk tomorrow is going to be a nightmare to forecast - latest meto modelling downgrades it a tad...

This must be why the potential is so:

a) interesting

b ) infuriating

c) hard to understand

d) easy to understand when drinking beer

(delete the options as appropriate........)

[Costa Del Fal]

The risk tomorrow is going to be a nightmare to forecast - latest meto modelling downgrades it a tad...

For those who maybe aren't into chart viewing but would like some additional local info on cape, dewpoints and storm risk percentage - we've just updated our storm risk forecast page:

http://www.netweathe...mforecast;sess=

By a tad, are we still talking significant potential or are we on decidedly dodgy ground tonight, with just heavy rain more likely?

[Harry]

The risk tomorrow is going to be a nightmare to forecast - latest meto modelling downgrades it a tad...

For those who maybe aren't into chart viewing but would like some additional local info on cape, dewpoints and storm risk percentage - we've just updated our storm risk forecast page:

http://www.netweathe...mforecast;sess=

Loving it! Thanks Paul!

I note that for today London is one of the best places for the necessary stats...Up to 1000J/kg CAPE, LI of around -3 between now and 1pm tomorrow afternoon, humidity 90%+....storm risk....0% throughout!!!!!!!!!

[Kain]

The risk tomorrow is going to be a nightmare to forecast - latest meto modelling downgrades it a tad...

For those who maybe aren't into chart viewing but would like some additional local info on cape, dewpoints and storm risk percentage - we've just updated our storm risk forecast page:

http://www.netweathe...mforecast;sess=

0% for Bridgnorth this afternoon and tonight.

Was nice while it lasted I suppose

[Chris D]

I always like a good storm, but if good ol' Norwich gets one and Southport doesn't I will be even more flabbergasted!

[Harry]

0% for Bridgnorth this afternoon and tonight.

Was nice while it lasted I suppose

I've just checked the emerging GFS 06z (which I think many people will be encouraged by TBH) has a 70% storm risk for London throughout tomorrow morning............QUE??????????

Paul, is that link you provided working ok? Which charts does the 'storm risk' tool link to?

Edited June 27, 2012 by Harry

[Hodgheg]

Still looks good for today and tomorrow here in Hull, planning on walking down to the humber today, and tomorrow maybe the humber bridge to get some good pics. Fingers crossed