Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Sprites]

Light weight!!!!! This is the really fun bit, it's like a treasure hunt with five different maps and thousands of different people who all think they know where it's buried!!!!

#comeonyoustorms

all you need to do is leave the radio on, and check the radar occasionaly on a mobile Simples! lol

[Harry]

A very DRY outlook from Rachel Mackley today (with more phantom lightning bolts thrown in to tease us!!!!!)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me1

Apparently we're going to see patchy rain tonight, warm muggy feel, front going through tomorrow, drier by the afternoon.....still little in the way of confidence

[Paul]

We've given the storm risk forecast a bit of a tweak as it was being a bit ott in killing risk when certain things weren't quite right - kind of sums up storm forecasting, so many params need to fall into place for it to kick off..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;sess=

[Tim B]

Normally I'd rush on and buy a months extra pack at this point but since there has not been so much as one thundery downpour all year up here, I'm not holding my breath.

[Costa Del Fal]

A very DRY outlook from Rachel Mackley today (with more phantom lightning bolts thrown in to tease us!!!!!)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me1

Apparently we're going to see patchy rain tonight, warm muggy feel, front going through tomorrow, drier by the afternoon.....still little in the way of confidence

Those phantom lightning bolts are in the same place as yesterday. Your being teased big time.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Blizzards

[StormyLincs]

nice cell gone up nr grimsby just moving off into north sea. can see the beasty from the window.

[Andy Pepler]

im in wiltshire hows the risk for this area...i have a new hd webcam do i set it up for streaming for this "event" so lads and lasses rate my area for anyting ?

pplleaseee ..and i also want a good storm i need a good storm i want a storm dammit hate boil in the bag weaher..

[Bobby]

Nice, the latest 06z NMM has a big upgrade on CAPE compared to the 00z, things slightly delayed

00z:

06z:

More CIN too

http://images.meteoc...3-30-0_ufh7.png

http://images.meteoc...3-24-0_qjn0.png

Edited June 27, 2012 by Barb-

[john175]

afternoon all, the MO has just put a weather warning out for my area tomorrow from 11am onward. not getting excited as looking from what you guys have been posting im lucky to be even getting the word thunder in my forecast .

good luck to you all tomorrow though

[Norfolk Sheep]

pretty much 10/10 cloud cover here, so the chance of something later today is very low unless this annoying cloud magically melts away.....

[Norfolk Sheep]

We've given the storm risk forecast a bit of a tweak as it was being a bit ott in killing risk when certain things weren't quite right - kind of sums up storm forecasting, so many params need to fall into place for it to kick off..

http://www.netweathe...mforecast;sess=

Storm risk for tomorrow......0% .........that's a heck of a tweak!!!

[Robbie Garrett]

Nice, the latest 06z NMM has a big upgrade on CAPE compared to the 00z, things slightly delayed

00z:

06z:

More CIN too

http://images.meteoc...3-30-0_ufh7.png

http://images.meteoc...3-24-0_qjn0.png

It's going to be interesting tomorrow morning, the wind direction is good for imports from France. With them tracking more of a NNE fasion rather than straight into Ballsachelenux.

[Coast]

There's a lot going on around us!

[Chris.R]

I've been lucky with the cloud here today and there has been quite a lot of strong sunnshine getting insolation going. Feeling very very humid and warm at about 22C.

[Robbie Garrett]

There's a lot going on around us!

Coast, I take it the CB cluster is what I mentioned earlier, with the secondary low?

[Coast]

Coast, I take it the CB cluster is what I mentioned earlier, with the secondary low?

I believe so

SkyWarn have a provisional, not yet formal, forecast out as follows (please treat as draft only):

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #033

ISSUED: 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 27TH JUNE 2012 (SG/GS/GJ/SM/DH)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ALL AREAS UK

IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC THURSDAY 28TH UNTIL 0300UTC FRIDAY 29TH JUNE 2012

MATURE STALLED LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND WAVE IN THE BISCAY AREA ENCOURAGING A VERY WARM PRE-FRONTAL PLUME OVER THE UK, WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVOURABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANISED THUNDERSTORMS

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...HAIL...STRONG GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBLITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INTO AND THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS. A MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED TO THE WEST OF IRELAND BECOMES DEVELOPED THROUGH THE DAY BY A THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING TO THE SOUTH, WITH A WAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PORTUGAL MOVING THROUGH THE BISCAY AREA. TO THE EAST OF THIS, AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM IBERIA INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NW FRANCE AND IS ENCOURAGED NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY GENERATE STRONG MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY OF WELL OVER 1000J/KG CAPE, WITH THE APPROACHING JETSTREAM NOSE PROVIDING SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORGANISATION FOR HIGH-BASED UPDRAFTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO MODERATE TO LARGE HAIL SIZES AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CORES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY HOURS, SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND WALES BY LUNCHTIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE PROFILE AROUND IRISH SEA AREAS AND MIDLANDS TO NORTHERN ENGLAND, TOGETHER WITH FAVOURABLE WIND SHEAR, WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ORGANISED AND STRONG CONVECTION WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THERE ALSO EXISTS A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELS AND TORNADOES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THIS PATTERN EVOLVING INTO A MCS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SCOTLAND, THOUGH THERE IS ALSO EQUAL POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AND ORGANISED STORMS HERE WITH SIMILAR ATTENDANT THREATS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA AND SOUTHEAST THERE IS LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE WHICH MAY PRECLUDE THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS DEPENDENT UPON DAYTIME HEATING AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WHICH, GIVEN A FAVOURABLE SHEAR PATTERN, COULD LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS, WITH TORNADOES ALSO A POSSIBILITY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

I'm not sure what their statement 'good model agreement' means, as from what I've been looking at, no one is in agreement!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice, the latest 06z NMM has a big upgrade on CAPE compared to the 00z, things slightly delayed

More CIN too

http://images.meteoc...3-30-0_ufh7.png

http://images.meteoc...3-24-0_qjn0.png

More CIN is not good!!!

However thankfully it doesnt look too much, certainly not here in the Midlands anyway.

[Robbie Garrett]

I believe so

Just read the above, and it's exactly my thinking mate.

WITH A WAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PORTUGAL MOVING THROUGH THE BISCAY AREA. TO THE EAST OF THIS, AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM IBERIA INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NW FRANCE AND IS ENCOURAGED NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY GENERATE STRONG MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY OF WELL OVER 1000J/KG CAPE, WITH THE APPROACHING JETSTREAM NOSE PROVIDING SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORGANISATION FOR HIGH-BASED UPDRAFTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO MODERATE TO LARGE HAIL SIZES AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CORES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY HOURS, SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND WALES BY LUNCHTIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

It's looking really humid out there, has a very thundery look already. I take it the plume is here then?

[Chris.R]

Threat of sustained supercells for irish sea areas? wooooww!

[Keraunic]

@ Robbie. Smashing video. Thanks for sharing. Love the music as well.

[Evening thunder]

Nice, the latest 06z NMM has a big upgrade on CAPE compared to the 00z, things slightly delayed

00z:

06z:

More CIN too

http://images.meteoc...3-30-0_ufh7.png

http://images.meteoc...3-24-0_qjn0.png

Interesting, I can't help think with all that CAPE around that if there are 'heavy showers' like the Met Office forecast suggests (I.e probably meaning convective showers) they would probably turn into thunderstorms?

I know CAPE is not everything and I'm not one to go over the top on storm chances, through experience, but I can't help but think unless those charts are drastically wrong there is a better chance than some sources are mentioning.

Maybe the MetO's charts show more CIN still over western parts than that if they don't expect too much..

Edited June 27, 2012 by Stormmad26

[TEITS]

My take on tomorrow is this. An area of heavy rain with the odd rumble of thunder moving from SW England towards E Anglia during tomorrow morning with this clearing late morning. During the afternoon heavy showers/storms breaking out especially for N England. Currently the areas who look likely to miss out is the SE.

[Supacell]

Some interesting conversations going on over on ukww. Talk of possible supercells and large hail up to 5mm!!!

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/91959-convective-outlook-thurs-28th-june-2012/

I may abandon my Lincolnshire chase today and save the petrol money for tomorrow, as things are starting to look quite interesting. Considering Brick's forecast earlier, i cannot see the point in travelling to see heavy showers and the odd rumble of thunder. I want to be seeing MCS's/Supercells with hail and frequent lightning

[Robbie Garrett]

@ Robbie. Smashing video. Thanks for sharing. Love the music as well.

No worries, my thinking is something similar but probably not as bad as that thing was. Hey you never know with the British Weather, there is however enough energy in the atmosphere for something similar to happen, probably not quite an MCC, but more likely an MCS developing over the Bay of Biscay area, crossing into South England early hours tomorrow morning and into London and Kent/Essex possibly.

The GFS was keen on this feature developing, wind direction is favorable for storms tracking that direction and not north as the surface wind says. I am going by the TAFS which are 230 so storms tracking from the south west.

MetOffice FAX Chart is very keen on a trough to develop ahead of the cold front too.

If you take a look at the following, it's perfectly timed.

And look where the early morning cape spreads.

Bang, Bang........

[A.J]

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2323684

Just read the above, and it's exactly my thinking mate.

It's looking really humid out there, has a very thundery look already. I take it the plume is here then?

See my entry last Saturday....I posted my thoughts on this then.......the models were predicting this secondary low for several days, nice to see the consistancy

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2321406