Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

[Met4Cast]

With the regrowth of Arctic ice being slow and being farther from the North Russian Coast I expect that it will slow down the build of snow cover in that area, the answer to that being in the charts in about 10 days when the earliest large negative anomalies always appear.

Surely with an increased amount of open ocean near that area, we would be seeing more in the way of convection and therefore more snowfall rather than less?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Here some snow, bit of Steingrims snow is still left in NW iceland just below the artic circle and at 465mts elevation

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Surely with an increased amount of open ocean near that area, we would be seeing more in the way of convection and therefore more snowfall rather than less?

I'm starting to think that ice cover large or small is not the most important factor in snow making.

This example would make the argument that it is important but you could find other examples were it is the other way round, so what to think?

Ice pointing at snow http://climate.rutge...ay=284&ui_set=2 with negative amounts of snow surrounding it.

I know that a lot of lake effect convection snow goes on in the huge lakes in the U.S. maybe it works different in Russia, Still learning, I had been under the understanding that the ice helps the snow.

Again we will soon know the answer for this year.

Edited September 16, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Lynxus]

Early snow according to NASA for Putorana Plateau, central Siberia..

[cyclonic happiness]

Surely with an increased amount of open ocean near that area, we would be seeing more in the way of convection and therefore more snowfall rather than less?

I think it'll do that too Dan (btw, nice to see you again, I haven't spoken to you for years it seems, since the good old days of the BBC board).

I think eventually we'll reach a tipping point where the extra heat generate more cloud and more snowfall, which will cause global temperature to plummet into a new 'little ice age' call me a nutter, but we'll see :-)

[Lynxus]

I think it'll do that too Dan (btw, nice to see you again, I haven't spoken to you for years it seems, since the good old days of the BBC board).

I think eventually we'll reach a tipping point where the extra heat generate more cloud and more snowfall, which will cause global temperature to plummet into a new 'little ice age' call me a nutter, but we'll see :-)

Yep, I'm of the same belief.

Personally I feel this year may be one of the coldest / snowiest for at 10 years.

As already posted some place are seeing a lot of snow already ( months before normal ) Iceland is one example.

Also a few pages back I commented on a snowfall graphs that seems to show a 10 year cycle ( Albeit in the USA ) I feel we have a similar setup.

With people mentioning less sea ice creating more convection I also feel that this is a huge indicator of a colder winter.

When the sea ice starts to feeze it grows quickly so an early snow start I think will help bring temperatures down in the surrounding landmass mostly from the extra solar reflection but also by limiting the the amount the landmass can store the energy.

With extra early snow cover and then eventually sea ice growing once complete I think this will then assist in creating a much cooler polar region and as such bringing much cooler air further south.

Edited September 16, 2012 by Lynxus

[Iceni]

Wow! countryfile's just forecast the first frost in southern areas in September… let's hope autumn and winter are early this year.

[Lynxus]

Wow! countryfile's just forecast the first frost in southern areas in September… let's hope autumn and winter are early this year.

More evidence

[Aaron]

I think the Met are still being too conservative with their overnight minimums. Here, it fell to 2.6C on the 31st of August, so I think similar or lower temperatures are possible. They way they talk about lows of 7C being 'chilly' as if it's unusual for the time of year is annoying..

Edited September 16, 2012 by Aaron

[Fozfoster]

Wow! countryfile's just forecast the first frost in southern areas in September… let's hope autumn and winter are early this year.

Best lag them pipes on our static caravan then.

[The watcher]

Wow! countryfile's just forecast the first frost in southern areas in September… let's hope autumn and winter are early this year.

A ground frost in Countryside areas. They didn't show minimums less than 3/4c, so an airfrost is unlikely in Southern areas for another good while yet.

[Iceni]

Best lag them pipes on our static caravan then.

And be sure to drain the water tank if it's not in use over winter. We got caught out in 2010 and needed a £500 new boiler for the campervan next spring. Ouch!

Countryfile says minimums of 4ºC in rural areas, that always means a frost here. They overestimate by a few degrees consistently.

[Relativistic]

A ground frost in Countryside areas. They didn't show minimums less than 3/4c, so an airfrost is unlikely in Southern areas for another good while yet.

I find the Met will nearly always underestimate the overnight lows, especially with extremes, so I wouldn't be surprised if there was an air frost in a few select locations.

Edited September 16, 2012 by 22nov10blast

[Fozfoster]

And be sure to drain the water tank if it's not in use over winter. We got caught out in 2010 and needed a £500 new boiler for the campervan next spring. Ouch!

Countryfile says minimums of 4ºC in rural areas, that always means a frost here. They overestimate by a few degrees consistently.

Our vans at Heacham and i drain it myself, the site wanted £150 !!!!!that was 4 years ago. its easy to do drain blow the pipes and some antifreeze . Wheres your caravan Iceni?

[Mark Neal.]

Wow! countryfile's just forecast the first frost in southern areas in September… let's hope autumn and winter are early this year.

Do you have a link to the video.. I can see lows this week, generally 5-6c on clear nights, perhaps a bit lower, maybe frost hollows like Benson may get down to frost level?

[The watcher]

It's not that they underestimate, we have certain locations that fair better for cold conditions under clear skies. Frost hollows are an example, valleys, etc. If you are in one of these locations then maybe that is why you tend to see lower than what they forecast.

Edited September 16, 2012 by The watcher

[Iceni]

Do you have a link to the video.. I can see lows this week, generally 5-6c on clear nights, perhaps a bit lower, maybe frost hollows like Benson may get down to frost level?

Wait awhile and it'll be on i-player. For my area it said 4ºC and he warned gardeners about their plants.

[Aaron]

Do you have a link to the video.. I can see lows this week, generally 5-6c on clear nights, perhaps a bit lower, maybe frost hollows like Benson may get down to frost level?

GFS is showing widespread air frost on Saturday next week for northern England and Scotland.. yes it does have a tendency to overdo it sometimes but it got it spot on for late August.

It's not that they underestimate, we have certain locations that fair better for cold conditions under clear skies. Frost hollows are an example, valleys, etc. If you are in one of these locations then maybe that is why you tend to see lower than what they forecast.

I always see lower than forecast and I am definitely not in a frost hollow. They just overestimate the minimums a lot of the time. The forecast for cities may often be for the centre, but temperatures can vary a lot over a short distance depending on local topography (for example there's nothing but fields to my south, and there is a hill located across from my garden, resulting in a lot of low mist in this area) Edited September 16, 2012 by Aaron

[Mark Neal.]

Wait awhile and it'll be on i-player. For my area it said 4ºC and he warned gardeners about their plants.

Okay, yes ofcourse in rural areas temps will be lower, a warning to gardeners about plants,certainly a good idea!

GFS is showing widespread air frost on Saturday next week for northern England and Scotland.. yes it does have a tendency to overdo it sometimes but it got it spot on for late August.

I always see lower than forecast and I am definitely not in a frost hollow. They just overestimate the minimums a lot of the time. The forecast for cities may often be for the centre, but temperatures can vary a lot over a short distance depending on local topography (for example there's nothing but fields to my south, and there is a hill located across from my garden, resulting in a lot of low mist in this area)

Yes thats true, sometimes i do look closely at my area (Southern England), something to keep an eye on, would be good to see a air frost this early

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Some charts to show the snows progress in the last 4 days

then now

then now >>>>>>>>>

Edited September 17, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[LincolnSnowstorm]

I see the snow and its down on last year but still better overall than 2010 and a lot better for the date than 2009,2007,2005,2004,1999

I'm looking for a impressive fight back of ice and snow over the next 12 weeks

[cheeky_monkey]

I know that a lot of lake effect convection snow goes on in the huge lakes in the U.S. maybe it works different in Russia, Still learning, I had been under the understanding that the ice helps the snow.

Again we will soon know the answer for this year.

dont forget the great lakes etc in the US and Canada are relatively warm come early winter so great deal of snow is produced but this amount falls significantly as winter progresses and they get colder and colder to the point were little or no snow is produced...i would guess because the waters to the North of Russia are so cold there will be very little in the way of convective snow produced.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest CT snow and sea ice chart, tis quite big!

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

[LincolnSnowstorm]

dont forget the great lakes etc in the US and Canada are relatively warm come early winter so great deal of snow is produced but this amount falls significantly as winter progresses and they get colder and colder to the point were little or no snow is produced...i would guess because the waters to the North of Russia are so cold there will be very little in the way of convective snow produced.

Well I'm happy that answers my doubt that the open water will produce more snow there, others I know will not be so sure.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

The latest CT snow and sea ice chart, tis quite big!

http://arctic.atmos....edu/cryosphere/

Thanks for the upload bftv ,talking of big images I say bring it on! it makes it clearer for seeing whats left of the ice no problem with big images tis the age of fast broadband, modern web browsers that zoom in and out with ease, I wish some chunky snow graphics left 1996 and improved. There are far bigger images out there and max single file upload size is 4MB Looking forward to seeing some excellent images on netweather this winter.

Edited September 17, 2012 by harshwintercoming