Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 16th August 2012>

[5thchang]

Latest fax chart for Sunday surely looking good for some storms?

Does that mean there will no cap in the SE Due to that little low

[weatherobsuk]

Been a shift in direction the mid-level vectors are taking, looks to be more easterly now which is better for us in the Northwest as if this trend continues then cells will start to be forming in the Irish Sea/Cardigan Bay and more less landmass to encounter before they get here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

NE midlands? its barely reaching me here in the west midlands!

I meant it's trying to push in that direction but it's fizzling out as it does so.

[Staffordshire]

I meant it's trying to push in that direction but it's fizzling out as it does so.

ahh i see, however i have just realised that stuff around bristol way seems to be heading that way!

[Methuselah]

You can't make an argument against someone referencing one place when you use one place yourself to embelish your point. I for one am aware of the rain that's fallen in the SW and S Wales....I don't think that's the point we're trying to make, rather, other regions i.e N Wales, NW England, NW Midlands which were touted to experience the same conditions?

Why not? I'm making an entirely different point altogether: Warnings are just that: they are not promises of gargantuan, tropical deluges everywhere within the area mentioned. And, how do I know this? I lived in the NW Highlands on many days when snow was forecast, for NW Scotland...And, more often than not, it all fell 'elsewhere'!

Warnings are about probabilities not certainties. It can be bloody annoying sometimes, though!

[Darren Bown]

N wales and NW England need to look at the pulse forming in SW Wales currently heading this way.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Why not? I'm making an entirely different point altogether: Warnings are just that: they are not promises of gargantuan, tropical deluges everywhere within the area mentioned. And, how do I know this? I lived in the NW Highlands on many days when snow was forecast, for NW Scotland...And, more often than not, it all fell 'elsewhere'!

Warnings are about probabilities not certainties. It can be bloody annoying sometimes, though!

TBH frustration has completely set in for me now seeing as I haven't seen a flash of lightning in well over a year. When we did get a rumble here (Wed) I was sat in the Printworks, Manchester eating a Nandos (unable to even get a decent 3g signal so I was clueless as to what was going on).....lol

Edited August 17, 2012 by CreweCold

[Lynxus]

Ok, Sunday, i can see some potential but with the pressure systems sitting right on top, I can see a lot of nowcasting at the time..

So with a good 48hrs to go..

Cape, No bad..

Not a lot in the way of decent convergence. Id say its a Northern event and SE event from possible imports. ( Although im not sold at this point. )

As i said, This to me doesnt look great ( Correct me? )

[Supacell]

Talk on ukww of elevated storms tomorrow night into Sunday morning, bringing little rain but "electrically active" from CS England to NE England. Could be some lightning photo opportunities then.

I am trying my best to not look at Sunday as if I do I am going to get excited as it looks really good to me. However, I have decided I will travel anywhere in the UK should the charts still look as good come tomorrow evening.

Lynxus, that fax chart you shows has LP sat right over the South and EA - surely that is a good thing?

Edited August 17, 2012 by Supacell

[Methuselah]

TBH frustration has completely set in for me now seeing as I haven't seen a flash of lightning in well over a year. When we did get a rumble here (Wed) I was sat in the Printworks, Manchester eating a Nandos.....lol

I feel your pain, CC. I went away to Farnborough in late July...Do I need tell you the rest!

[Gavin P]

Hi everyone,

Here's the video I did earlier looking at the hot and possible thundery weather from Sun-Tue;

http://gavsweathervids.com/

Edited August 17, 2012 by Gavin P

[Sunny Android]

N wales and NW England need to look at the pulse forming in SW Wales currently heading this way.

Thanks for the 'heads-up' but I hope Snowdonia doesn't attentuate it's ferocity !

[SP1986]

My experience suggest it will lose its intensity as it moves north over Wales. Rain will mainly be light when it reaches the lowlands of NW England.

[The PIT]

Tonight's rain so far fizzling out pretty quickly as it moves away from Wales. It's brought us a grand total of 0.2mm so far as the Sheffield shield shreds it into oblivion.

[Supacell]

My experience suggest it will lose its intensity as it moves north over Wales. Rain will mainly be light when it reaches the lowlands of NW England.

Did you not get hit by a storm on Monday evening?

I do not see tonight being big for lightning tbh, more the intensity of rainfall. However, i would love to be wrong and for sferics to start exploding across Wales and then push NE giving an overnight MCS with frequent lightning. But, may have to wait a couple of days for that

[SP1986]

We got hit by heavy rain, well exceptionally heavy rain.. But it wasnt a thunderstorm. Still waiting to hear thunder this year!

[Lynxus]

We got hit by heavy rain, well exceptionally heavy rain.. But it wasnt a thunderstorm. Still waiting to hear thunder this year!

hahah, I cant believe you fell for it. You do realise that there is no such thing as thunder/lightning? People are just having a laugh. Its one huge joke.... I must be! Because I'm fairly sure I cant remember a storm.

[SP1986]

Haha, thunderstorms are in the same class as demons, poltergeists ans psychics!

[IanR]

We got hit by heavy rain, well exceptionally heavy rain.. But it wasnt a thunderstorm. Still waiting to hear thunder this year!

Did you not see the lightning over southport blackpool way , it was only a flash a minute on average, a little more at times but it lasted well over an hour, lost count of the flashes, it was visible from west yorkshire apparantly

[A.J]

Did you not see the lightning over southport blackpool way , it was only a flash a minute on average, a little more at times but it lasted well over an hour, lost count of the flashes, it was visible from west yorkshire apparantly

...and from the west midands!

[Allseasons-Si]

And clearly visible from here in s yorkshire.

oh! and thanks JH for the Skew-t tuition page,i had a browse through it but i will have to have another look at it again as there was a lot to take in.

ppn getting heavier over stoke and NW whales.

Edit:most of whales

Edited August 17, 2012 by allseasons-si

[Darren Bown]

The sky has gone pink here, really weird.

[lilclairey2012]

The sky has gone pink here, really weird.

same here! i was coming on here to say that! it's reallllly weird!

[Darren Bown]

That heavy rain is about to hit Merseyside and NE Wales.

[The PIT]

Beautiful half rainbow here earlier from the shredded remains of the South Wales rainfall that dated to come this way. Amazing that 3 mm of rain brings a warning. Perhaps it was for the rainbow??