Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 16th August 2012>

[IanR]

animated lightning symbol just west of here on the BBC weather forecast earlier, cant see any thunderstorms happening anywhere near here , that would be a miracle, just plain light /moderate rain for an hour or two and boring featureless stratus , feel like ringing the bbc up and saying dont be silly with the lightning symbols

[Andy Bown]

A few large spots of rain falling on the south coast here, coming from that new little line that has popped up from nowhere in the Channel in the last few hours. Quite a mixed looking sky with Ac Cast bubbling up over a large portion of the sky

Yes I noticed that after checking the radar for the first time in a few hours, wonder if it will intensify as it moves inland or stay the same or weaken?

Certainly a very disturbed sky with all manner of Altocumulus types moving S-N on a brisk wind under a hot, humid hazy sun.

[Aaron]

Where abouts? Been dull all day in this area

It only came out for a few seconds, cloudy now and has been all day.

Anyway some heavy rain developing in Wales, so maybe that's what will push northwards.. Met say heavy rain 1900 - 0400.

[Mapantz]

A few large spots of rain falling on the south coast here, coming from that new little line that has popped up from nowhere in the Channel in the last few hours. Quite a mixed looking sky with Ac Cast bubbling up over a large portion of the sky

Yes, just had a shower here. It really is humid though - 18.8°C dew point.

It best do one before the start of tonights cider festival at Stoborough though.

[Evening thunder]

Isn't Abertawe having a pile of rain,a and thunder this arvo?

Certainly looks like it's been being hammered for the last hour or two.. some very heavy and torrential rain in the Swansea area in that time. I kind of wish that would happen here but it never does like that.. well it kind of did once, but when I was away of course.

[Aaron]

More prolonged spells of sun now, some blue sky about (quite a lot actually), 21.5c, dew 18.6c, humidity 83%.. something has to kick off.. (I can hope)

[Methuselah]

Certainly looks like it's been being hammered for the last hour or two.. some very heavy and torrential rain in the Swansea area in that time. I kind of wish that would happen here but it never does like that.. well it kind of did once, but when I was away of course.

Never mind mate. All those things happen in 'Elsewhere'!

[snowfluff]

Stair rods in barry

Nasty accident that,hope he is ok.

[SP1986]

Very stable here 0 chance of storms. I think the air here is ome of the most stable in UK. Although im not entirely sure where forecasts of thunder are coming from tonight.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very stable here 0 chance of storms. I think the air here is ome of the most stable in UK. Although im not entirely sure where forecasts of thunder are coming from tonight.

Indeed.....it was evident from the models this morning that there would be nothing untoward away from the SW & S Wales. That's not Metoffice bashing, it's just basic interpretation of the charts and models. I will concede it did look a lot better for some severe weather on the models last night; but since then any appreciable accumulations of rain away from the above areas have been consistently downgraded.

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart for Sunday surely looking good for some storms?

[Carl46Wrexham]

Not meaning to knock the Met Office here, but I am just not seeing any justification for the amber warning being issued. Here in North Wales, and in many parts of North West England (2 of the 3 regions covered by the amber warning), we have had nothing more significant than light rain and drizzle on and off for a number of hours now. Looking at the rainfall radar, there does not really seem to be anything overly concerning to the south west either. I can understand that maybe they were covering their backs a bit when that really intense mass of rain was coming into South Wales earlier, but as we saw, it weakened and delivered nothing more than the light rain and drizzle we have experienced on and off.

Perhaps a downgrade to a yellow warning would be in order?

[Aaron]

Stop jumping to conclusions and just wait.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not meaning to knock the Met Office here, but I am just not seeing any justification for the amber warning being issued. Here in North Wales, and in many parts of North West England (2 of the 3 regions covered by the amber warning), we have had nothing more significant than light rain and drizzle on and off for a number of hours now. Looking at the rainfall radar, there does not really seem to be anything overly concerning to the south west either. I can understand that maybe they were covering their backs a bit when that really intense mass of rain was coming into South Wales earlier, but as we saw, it weakened and delivered nothing more than the light rain and drizzle we have experienced on and off.

Perhaps a downgrade to a yellow warning would be in order?

Again, not saying this out of any malice but you can have all of the highest resolution 'super computers' you want but that high resolution is pointless if it gets the general gist of what's going to happen out of kilter in the first place; infact it just magnifies the errors.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Stop jumping to conclusions and just wait.

We've been waiting all day....I'll gladly eat humble pie if something does materialise....in fact I hope it does because I like wild weather.

[Methuselah]

Not meaning to knock the Met Office here, but I am just not seeing any justification for the amber warning being issued. Here in North Wales, and in many parts of North West England (2 of the 3 regions covered by the amber warning), we have had nothing more significant than light rain and drizzle on and off for a number of hours now. Looking at the rainfall radar, there does not really seem to be anything overly concerning to the south west either. I can understand that maybe they were covering their backs a bit when that really intense mass of rain was coming into South Wales earlier, but as we saw, it weakened and delivered nothing more than the light rain and drizzle we have experienced on and off.

Perhaps a downgrade to a yellow warning would be in order?

Why not take a trip to Swansea? Wrexham, like MK, is not the whole of the UK...

[Carl46Wrexham]

Why not take a trip to Swansea? Wrexham, like MK, is not the whole of the UK...

Lazy post.

If you had taken the trouble to read my post fully you will have noted that I stated that 2 of the regions (except the South of Wales) covered by the amber warning have only received light rain and drizzle....I was not referring to my own back yard.

Or are people getting prickly because the Met Office might have got this one wrong?

I'll say no more.

Edited August 17, 2012 by Carl46Wrexham

[Cheshire Freeze]

Why not take a trip to Swansea? Wrexham, like MK, is not the whole of the UK...

You can't make an argument against someone referencing one place when you use one place yourself to embelish your point. I for one am aware of the rain that's fallen in the SW and S Wales....I don't think that's the point we're trying to make, rather, other regions i.e N Wales, NW England, NW Midlands which were touted to experience the same conditions?

[Darren Bown]

Meto Warning mentions evening as the main focus of anything severe. Amber warning was only valid from 2pm, so only around 1/4 through that time so far.

The rain has intensified around SW Wales as it has come inland.

EDIT Plus a Sferic

Edited August 17, 2012 by Darren Bown

[IanR]

Indeed.....it was evident from the models this morning that there would be nothing untoward away from the SW & S Wales. That's not Metoffice bashing, it's just basic interpretation of the charts and models. I will concede it did look a lot better for some severe weather on the models last night; but since then any appreciable accumulations of rain away from the above areas have been consistently downgraded.

Yet the BBC forecast this morning insisted in putting one of the those animated lightning symbols over the NW ,where do they get this mis-information from, surely not the met office !!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Meto Warning mentions evening as the main focus of anything severe. Amber warning was only valid from 2pm, so only around 1/4 through that time so far.

The rain has intensified around SW Wales as it has come inland.

EDIT Plus a Sferic

All looks to be streaming up towards the NE Midlands?

[Darren Bown]

Regional weather with Diane seems to show around 8-midnight as the worst rain on the graphics.

[Supacell]

From what i can see it is the engagement of a warm plume from the south that will intensify the rain across NW Wales, NW England and heading across Northern England. There is talk of embedded thunderstorms, although rain will be the biggest problem.

Our local Look North news very concerned about Hebden Bridge again tonight and so an Amber warning is necessary here at least.

[Cheshire Freeze]

To be honest the whole week has been a let down from a storm perspective.....considering we've had LP anchored to the west all week and HP out east, hot plumes of air and a trailing CF thrown into the mix, it's been anything but spectacular. Sunday looks a point of interest for a few, however.

[Staffordshire]

All looks to be streaming up towards the NE Midlands?

NE midlands? its barely reaching me here in the west midlands!