Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some good new for ya Q4P.

Going by the NSIDC extent, as of the 19th, we're no longer lowest on record, being 16k above 2006 and just 20k behind 2010. We'll likely see us jump 2006 on IJIS when it updates later this morning too. On CT we'll probably have to wait until the weekend for a chance to get away from record lowest.

Current forecast shows a very strong Aleutian ridge moving into the Arctic and splitting the cold air, sending it into Siberia and Canada, with much milder upper temps spreading through the Arctic Ocean(~ -5C). This pattern may be good for building ice out around the edge of the pack and surrounding seas (especially Kara and Hudson Bay), though we'll likely see a slow down in growth around the Bering strait due to southerly winds.

[quest4peace]

Some good new for ya Q4P.

Going by the NSIDC extent, as of the 19th, we're no longer lowest on record, being 16k above 2006 and just 20k behind 2010. We'll likely see us jump 2006 on IJIS when it updates later this morning too. On CT we'll probably have to wait until the weekend for a chance to get away from record lowest.

Current forecast shows a very strong Aleutian ridge moving into the Arctic and splitting the cold air, sending it into Siberia and Canada, with much milder upper temps spreading through the Arctic Ocean(~ -5C). This pattern may be good for building ice out around the edge of the pack and surrounding seas (especially Kara and Hudson Bay), though we'll likely see a slow down in growth around the Bering strait due to southerly winds.

Hi BFTV Hope it's not too little too late though and will the milder central arctic air, do any more damage to the central area ice? or will it still be cold enough to keep it stable . Colder air in russia could be good for snow cover increases though?

The Ijis latest value : 9,374,063 km² (November 20, 2012)

Rise of about 127k? as of yestreday?

Edited November 21, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi BFTV Hope it's not too little too late though and will the milder central arctic air, do any more damage to the central area ice? or will it still be cold enough to keep it stable . Colder air in russia could be good for snow cover increases though?

The Ijis latest value : 9,374,063 km² (November 20, 2012)

Rise of about 127k? as of yestreday?

It should still be plenty cold to prevent any melting now in central areas. At this time of year, it's only a case of how fast the ice growth will be, rather than considering any meaningful losses.

I think that's a 116k jump to the 20th, and puts us 17k ahead of 2006.

[quest4peace]

It should still be plenty cold to prevent any melting now in central areas. At this time of year, it's only a case of how fast the ice growth will be, rather than considering any meaningful losses.

I think that's a 116k jump to the 20th, and puts us 17k ahead of 2006.

Some positives at last Here's the most up to date 2m surface temp map from

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...cweather.uk.php

Nice to see the really cold air covering more of a bigger area Temps of between -25c and -40c?

Edited November 21, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS extent has 2012 now ahead of 2006 by 114k, and just 16k behind 2010.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL054259.shtml

Just as an information point seeing as we had members trying to play down the unique nature of the August storm.

Let us hope that low ice levels, open water and ocean surface temps were not involved in the storm otherwise we may have more of the same to face over coming melt seasons and if the ice is becoming ever thinner then at some point such a storm could signal the end of the ice pack over a matter of days?

[gagerg]

http://www.agu.org/p...2GL054259.shtml

Just as an information point seeing as we had members trying to play down the unique nature of the August storm.

Let us hope that low ice levels, open water and ocean surface temps were not involved in the storm otherwise we may have more of the same to face over coming melt seasons and if the ice is becoming ever thinner then at some point such a storm could signal the end of the ice pack over a matter of days?

At least on the bright side the ice is improving area and extent wise now. I wonder what would happen if the above scenario played out.

[oldsnowywizard]

Thanks GW interesting... I must admit to have been a little concerned with the cross border flow being setup pushing cold air to the sides and out the other end... however it looks like with high pressure being dominant that should lead to cold surface and calm conditions which should be the best for ice growth..

[Geordiesnow]

Thanks GW interesting... I must admit to have been a little concerned with the cross border flow being setup pushing cold air to the sides and out the other end... however it looks like with high pressure being dominant that should lead to cold surface and calm conditions which should be the best for ice growth..

It also seems to give quite a strong reverse dipole(?) set up which should stop much ice leaving through the fram stright and if anything, may push the thicker ice towards the pole?

When I been viewing the charts, it does seem the best charts would be an high pressure cell over Svalbard with cold northerlies on the eastern side into Barents/Kara and milder southerlies up the Greenland sea.

Maybe BFTV can share better knowledge than me but in my eyes, the upcoming set ups do look fairly sound for Arctic sea ice with perhaps the exception would be Baffin Bay where wind direction and milder air may slow ice extent around here.

[BornFromTheVoid]

It also seems to give quite a strong reverse dipole(?) set up which should stop much ice leaving through the fram stright and if anything, may push the thicker ice towards the pole?

When I been viewing the charts, it does seem the best charts would be an high pressure cell over Svalbard with cold northerlies on the eastern side into Barents/Kara and milder southerlies up the Greenland sea.

Maybe BFTV can share better knowledge than me but in my eyes, the upcoming set ups do look fairly sound for Arctic sea ice with perhaps the exception would be Baffin Bay where wind direction and milder air may slow ice extent around here.

I agree, things looking quite positive for extent growth over the next few days at least. Coupled with the cold air and northerlies for Kara and Barents, plenty of very cold air flooding Hudson Bay too, so we could see the first significant growth spurt there quite soon. Similarly in the Sea of Okhotsk they're having mainly cold Siberian winds blowing off the continent, so a chance to drop those +ve SST anomalies and maybe get some early ice growth too

Milder air over the Bering sea, but with SSTs still well below average there, I doubt it will be too much of an issue.

With regards the dipole, we've actually had a -ve phase dipole in place over the last few months.

Here's the sea level pressure since August

Based on an index I created for my undergrad dissertation, we're continuing to be in a phase that promotes sea ice export though.

[barrel1234]

May I be the first to shout 'RECOVERY!'

On serious note the current pressure set-up does appear to be very good news for seaicephiles and it looks like a lot of air entering the basin will be filtered of warm air as it passes over greenland before entering the basin (if the forecast is accurate)

However, we still have got a long way to go to recover ice thick enough to last through the summer months, but generally I am genuinely quite surprised to see the ice at this extent so soon after the terrible minimums that we saw during the summer.

I still think that with low solar activity over the next few decades at least that the ice could well make a big comeback, maybe even an un-welcome comeback but that's jumping the gun more than just a little bit.

However with conditions as they are and so much discussion in the past about 'perfect storm' senarios destroying whats left of the extents during summer months it makes me wonder what an impact a year or 2 of generally very favourable conditions would to to the pack. It would be fairly feasable that certain conditions could even be 'fluked' even IF the general long term trend continues to be down.

[knocker]

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA

247 PM AKST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 21 2012

FORECAST VALID...MONDAY NOVEMBER 26 2012

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH.

SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM

THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TO THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS TO NORTHERN

ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE COMPLEX

LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTHEAST

ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF

ALASKA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-

PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-

PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-

ICE COVERED.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEAUFORT SEA...COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT

WINDS WILL ALLOW ICE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION AND

THICKNESS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH MONDAY.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-

PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-

PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY CHUKCHI SEA... COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT

WINDS WILL ALLOW ICE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION AND

THICKNESS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH MONDAY.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-

PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-

PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM 35 NM SOUTHWEST OF PILOT POINT TO 57.8N

158.1W TO 58N 159.2W TO 58.3N 161W TO 58.2N 163.5W TO 58.7N 166.6W TO

60N 167.3W TO 60.1N 168.8W TO 62.9N 169.5W TO 64.6N 168W TO 65.4N

168.3W TO 65.4N 169.1W TO 64.4N 170.9W TO 63.9N 173.3W TO 64.7N

175.4W TO 64.5N 176.9W TO 64.9N 179.1W TO 64.1N 179.4E TO THE RUSSIAN

COAST NEAR 63.1N 179.4E. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 7 TENTHS NEW AND

YOUNG ICE.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS

WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. THESE

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ICE OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH

THE WEEKEND. AS THE ICE IS MOVED OFFSHORE NEW ICE WILL RAPIDLY FORM

IN OPEN WATER AREAS NEAR SHORE. EXPECT THE ICE EDGE ALONG THE WEST

COAST OF ALASKA TO EXPAND 15 TO 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH

MONDAY.

-COOK INLET-

PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-

PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO LOW.

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...A LARGE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL

SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC

LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

6 TO 9 TENTHS YOUNG AND NEW ICE LIES WITHIN KNIK ARM AND TURNAGAIN

ARM. THE ICE AT THE PORT IS VARYING BETWEEN 5 AND 9 TENTHS NEW AND

YOUNG ICE WITH THE CHANGING TIDES. MOST OF THE ICE WITHIN COOK INLET

LIES NORTH OF THE NORTH FORELAND WITH CONCENTRATIONS OF 1 TO 9 TENTHS

NEW AND YOUNG ICE. 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN STRIPS NEAR THE EAST

AND WEST SHORELINES OF COOK INLET DOWN TO THE EAST AND WEST

FORELANDS.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET THROUGH MONDAY... MODERATE NORTHERLY TO

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE INLET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THESE WINDS WILL AID IN MOVING THE EXISTING ICE IN UPPER COOK INLET

FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT ICE CONCENTRATIONS TO INCREASE IN NORTHERN COOK

INLET AND LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF STRIPS OF ICE TO CONTINUE MOVING NEAR

THE SHORELINES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE EAST AND WEST FORELANDS THIS WEEK.

ICE IN COOK INLET CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIDES.

BLEGATT 2012

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php?fcst=FZAK80PAFC

[Methuselah]

May I be the first to shout 'RECOVERY!'

On serious note the current pressure set-up does appear to be very good news for seaicephiles and it looks like a lot of air entering the basin will be filtered of warm air as it passes over greenland before entering the basin (if the forecast is accurate)

However, we still have got a long way to go to recover ice thick enough to last through the summer months, but generally I am genuinely quite surprised to see the ice at this extent so soon after the terrible minimums that we saw during the summer.

I still think that with low solar activity over the next few decades at least that the ice could well make a big comeback, maybe even an un-welcome comeback but that's jumping the gun more than just a little bit.

However with conditions as they are and so much discussion in the past about 'perfect storm' senarios destroying whats left of the extents during summer months it makes me wonder what an impact a year or 2 of generally very favourable conditions would to to the pack. It would be fairly feasable that certain conditions could even be 'fluked' even IF the general long term trend continues to be down.

I think that the 'acid test' will come next spring and summer??

[Gray-Wolf]

As with 07's low surely we must see some kind of 'rebound' from this years lows? Another record breaking year next melt season would surely confirm that we have descended into a self -reinforcing death spiral leading to both ice free potions of summer and major changes to the Circulation patterns over hemisphere?

[pottyprof]

As with 07's low surely we must see some kind of 'rebound' from this years lows? Another record breaking year next melt season would surely confirm that we have descended into a self -reinforcing death spiral leading to both ice free potions of summer and major changes to the Circulation patterns over hemisphere?

Maybe...... Maybe not. We won't be here after December 21st anyway.

[jethro]

Maybe...... Maybe not. We won't be here after December 21st anyway.

The world doesn't end, the Mayan's were predicting the next ice age...... it's going to get chilly and we'll all look back and marvel at how we worried about the ice disappearing

[BornFromTheVoid]

Currently 88k above 2010 and 217k above 2006 on IJIS.

Things still looking good for continued strong extent growth over the next week. The next year ahead of us now is 2007, 185k up the the road. 2007 only gains about 56k/day over the next 5 days, so we'd catch it with 93k/day. That will be tough to manage, but considering the last 5 days have averaged over 100k/day, it's certainly possible.

[quest4peace]

Currently 88k above 2010 and 217k above 2006 on IJIS.

Things still looking good for continued strong extent growth over the next week. The next year ahead of us now is 2007, 185k up the the road. 2007 only gains about 56k/day over the next 5 days, so we'd catch it with 93k/day. That will be tough to manage, but considering the last 5 days have averaged over 100k/day, it's certainly possible.

What a strange freeze season we've had so far

[Red Raven]

If this is a success http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20454757 then the ice is doomed.

[laserguy]

If this is a success http://www.bbc.co.uk...nment-20454757 then the ice is doomed.

Coming soon to a headline near you - Ob River gets stuck in Arctic Ice,climate change blamed.

[jethro]

A bit of a double edged sword really. Ocean freight is responsible for vast amounts of CO2 emissions, this route apparently shaves off 40% of the normal route and reduces energy use accordingly - that's an enormous saving and reduction in emissions! This of course has to be balanced by the additional pollution being deposited in the high Arctic.

[Red Raven]

A bit of a double edged sword really. Ocean freight is responsible for vast amounts of CO2 emissions, this route apparently shaves off 40% of the normal route and reduces energy use accordingly - that's an enormous saving and reduction in emissions! This of course has to be balanced by the additional pollution being deposited in the high Arctic.

My worry is that if this becomes a regular route wouldn't the constant cutting and churning of the ice make it harder for any refreeze? The odd one or two would make no difference but get into double figures and it may be a different story.

[BornFromTheVoid]

My worry is that if this becomes a regular route wouldn't the constant cutting and churning of the ice make it harder for any refreeze? The odd one or two would make no difference but get into double figures and it may be a different story.

I think you'd want to be looking at hundreds before a noticeable effect on the sea ice would become apparent, mainly because winds and currents just push floes back together after the ships pass through.

My main concern with this is that companies that can't afford to invest the cash in huge strengthened tankers and nuclear powered ice-breakers decide to take a risk anyway, attempt to cross a frozen Arctic Ocean and run into trouble.

The Russians may have just paved the way for yet another ecological/environmental disaster.

Edited November 26, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

Strong gains once again for both extent and area.

With IJIS, the increase yesterday was 91k, which keeps us well ahead of both 2010 and 2006, and puts us just 37k off 2007.

On Cryosphere today, the latest increase was 153k, which takes us to within 1 millions km2 of the long term average for the first time since June 8th, and ahead of 2006, 2007 and 2010.

Sea Ice Area

[loafer]

Excellent news.

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank you for your frequent updates.