South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - September 15th 2012>

[Coast]

Don't worry, it looks like Yamkin is out there......

Say goodbye to the autumn: Weather skips a season as cold, rain and gale-force winds head to Britain with gritters on roads already preparing for winter

http://www.dailymail...ef=Larisa+Brown

[VillagePlank]

Sea Surface Anomlies show warm seas for the whole path to the UK ...

Again, whether this is sufficient to keep development going remains to be seen

[Coast]

Look where GFS has the most intense rain at 18z on Sunday - right over my back garden!

HiRLAM has it much further South:

Owwww this is touch and go!

[VillagePlank]

Yes, Coast, I FWIW I quite agree with you. This storm will only be maintained and sustained by a number of factors such as SST, and PFJ. So much has to come together; my point about Tues/Weds is that, unusually, the systems stalls over the UK instead of simply floating up over the North Sea on the normal N/NW trajectory. This gives it time to drag in warmer air, and then the PFJ turns up, which can certainly be a catalyst for cyclogenesis. With that it mind, it seems to me, there is more time for it to come together - measured over days, rather than the normal 6-12 hour stormy weather period. That's the risk in my view.

[Coast]

It does seem like it's projected to to stall although I've not looked much further than Monday in detail at the moment.

A quick peak earlier did suggest Tuesday morning would still see some rain and gusty winds. A long way to go yet meteorologiocally speaking:

The North of Scotland takes a caning!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Coast, regards to the first post of the rainfall..That lot moving north...DAMN!

[Coast]

Well you all know my love of extreme weather but I can't see that the possible projected amounts of rain, if it were to come to us, would be something I'd enjoy.

A good old storm or thick snow with no damage is great, but rain and lots of it is at best a pain and at worst could be a worrying concern. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of a situation that isn't by any means certain and still remains just a threat at this point.

Here's what the professionals are saying - 'it is difficult to forecast'!

[gottolovethisweather]

It does seem like it's projected to to stall although I've not looked much further than Monday in detail at the moment.

A quick peak earlier did suggest Tuesday morning would still see some rain and gusty winds. A long way to go yet meteorologiocally speaking:

The North of Scotland takes a caning!

I was stirred into my comment by looking at the last few NW forecasts for my region - http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess= and Newbury has been consistently forecast a lot of rain over the course of next week. Although, the forecasts change with each output, the latest prediction is still suggesting over 2 1/2 inches in the space of a few days.

Edited September 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[VillagePlank]

It looks like this baby is bringing the warmth/moisture from the mid-atlantic with it!

Edited September 21, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well you all know my love of extreme weather but I can't see that the possible projected amounts of rain, if it were to come to us, would be something I'd enjoy.

A good old storm or thick snow with no damage is great, but rain and lots of it is at best a pain and at worst could be a worrying concern. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of a situation that isn't by any means certain and still remains just a threat at this point.

Here's what the professionals are saying - 'it is difficult to forecast'!

the phrase "tell me something new" comes into mind...0.0

[Coast]

It looks like this baby is bringing the warmth/moisture from the mid-atlantic with it!

Lots of it......

[Keraunic]

Coo! It's getting a tad exciting innit?

I've tried to post this three times. Blooming iPad. I've just updated to IOS 6 and its all gone mad.

Coo! This is all looking very exciting innit? ⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡������������������������������������������

Coo! This is all looking very exciting innit? ������������������������������������������

See what I mean!!!

[Coast]

Coo! It's getting a tad exciting innit?

I've tried to post this three times. Blooming iPad. I've just updated to IOS 6 and its all gone mad.

See what I mean!!!

I have the same problem on a Galaxy Tab, fat fingers for me!!! :lol:

[Suburban Streamer]

Lots of it......

Does the warmth/moisture aid any thundery potential?

your charts above and gfs cape seem to keep any such activity over France. Is that right?

Edited September 21, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Eskimo]

Squall line developing ahead of the cold front. In the centre of that very heavy shower North of London

Edited September 21, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Coast]

Does the warmth/moisture aid any thundery potential?

your charts above and gfs cape seem to keep any such activity over France. Is that right?

I think it will be mostly in France, but there is a remote chance Monday Tuesday of something coastal on our side. Fingers crossed and as I waffling on, lets see what happens!

[Suburban Streamer]

Squall line developing ahead of the cold front. In the centre of that very heavy shower North of London

Yeah looks pretty heavy and slow moving. Skies very dark to my n/nw

[Bogman]

Yeah, squal line close to Potters Bar now. Just in time for me to leave work too. Predictable.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Rain for a time, perhaps heavy at first, but most parts becoming dry by midnight, although an isolated light shower is possible near Kent coasts. Turning cold in sheltered rural parts, particularly more western counties, with a grass frost possible. Minimum Temperature 2 °C.

[Bogman]

Yep, there she blows.

[Eskimo]

Need to get a temperature watch going, currently 14.4C, dropped from 17.9!

[Suburban Streamer]

Absolutely bucketing down.

I have no temperature info sorry

[Keraunic]

Very dark in Ippy at the moment. A few fat drops of rain but that's all.

I just sat on a chair and the whole thing collapsed under me. Best laugh my niece has had for yonks. I sank very gracefully to the floor mind you.

[Eskimo]

13.0 here now, 1.4C drop in 45 minutes.

[Lauren]

Crikey looks very dark over London way and seems to be heading for us.

Can someone explain to me briefly what this Atlantic system will be bringing us if it stays on track?