Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Met4Cast]

I think everyones expecting too much from this up coming cold spell. No one has EVER said widespread snowfall was on the cards, in fact, snowfall has barely been talked about. It's going to turn colder later next week, there will probably be snow over higher ground in the North MAYBE down to lower levels if we're lucky. Southern areas are highly unlikely to see snowfall.

As for the winter, It's October, winter doesn't start for over a month yet, shocking to see how much drivel is being talked on here today

[Barry12]

No, but a certain poster's post look remarkably similar to his.

Although I must say, you look live you may have gotten a touch of Doylemitis. Symptoms include cherry-picking data, ignoring criticism and making massively exaggerated claims. As far as I know there is no known cure if you do have it, so finger's crossed you don't.

No, I'm pretty sure I don't have it!

[gottolovethisweather]

Isn't the stratosphere cooling just a factor in all this? Or does it mean it's impossible to get cold and snow?

Yes to the first part, no to the second part, I would imagine answers your question. I am not knowledgeable enough to say what the longer-term signal is but the more immediate trend as we finish October is fascinating. The delayed feedback effect from the Stratosphere to the weather on the ground is also something that should be accounted for, when interpretating GP/Chinio's analysis. Things do not immediately change over the UK and the stratospheric signals and many others are on a global scale. On that basis, we are miles away from knowing what is in store for winter but yes, early signs for November are starting to show up already.

Edited October 20, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[snowstorm445]

No, I'm pretty sure I don't have it!

Thank God.

[gottolovethisweather]

You need to understand though that there is a lag time between stratospheric conditions and weather 'on the ground'. The state of the strat over the course of the next few weeks will most likely dictate the first portion of winter.....that is why the strat is of concern.

Hee, hee CC. Words taken straight out my mouth. Although I'm sure Liam would be aware of such things. Fascinating stuff this weather, although sometimes I begin to wonder whether I'm even in the right forum.

CC, when you're up for it, I'd like to see some more analysis from you as I admire your views.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I have to say, all this talk of winter is over and the twitching over this or that outcome is what makes this thread so entertaining! Personally I just take it all with a pinch of salt and find it very amusing seeing people get so het up! Keep up the great work folks, best site and read on the web, absolutely love it! :-) oh and just for the record I reckon it is going to be an epic winter, one that will rival the greats ;-)

[Nights King]

Makes me laugh whenever there is even a slight uncertainty in strat warming everyone panics and assumes we have a bartlet winter coming...

Edited October 20, 2012 by mullender83

[Barry12]

According to the Met, November look's like a below average month. Maybe even snow at low levels in the north east at the end of October.

[chiffer]

Sorry if my post made no sense my phone is illiterate and I definately was not saying there aren't some forecasters on here that aren't ex met-o or people just as good as the met office on here. But I believe they are looking at a cold November.

[Barry12]

November cold, December mild because of the stratosphere, and January cold and February cold as stratosphere warms. So a cold Stratosphere now or even in a few weeks does not mean disaster.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Barry95

[johnholmes]

copied from the Stratosphere thread-no apologies

I truly despair of some folk on Net Wx. Even when chio posts objective posts some idiot jumps on his/her scooter and rushes round saying winter is over.

Just where did chio either say that or even hint at that?

.

It really would be nice for some folk to learn to walk before pretending they can run.

I have very little idea about the Stratosphere but am trying to learn-why don't some of you lot do the same.

This winter, whatever it shows and especially IF it does not have lots of cold and snow is going to be real pain on this forum

Edited October 20, 2012 by johnholmes

[Snowangel-MK]

I have to say, all this talk of winter is over and the twitching over this or that outcome is what makes this thread so entertaining! Personally I just take it all with a pinch of salt and find it very amusing seeing people get so het up! Keep up the great work folks, best site and read on the web, absolutely love it! :-) oh and just for the record I reckon it is going to be an epic winter, one that will rival the greats ;-)

so do I .......but mine is with a wedge of lime and a shot of tequila as well

[Rocheydub]

I despair. I really do. It appears there are some people posting here just for the sake of causing a row!!!

Cooler spell at the end of the coming week, is nothing to do with winter which doesn't start until December... Please folks, cop on!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I do wonder how old some of you lot are. The strat thread is not even that negative, what do you expect? A barbecue at 25 miles up?

If the strat thread said to go and put your hand in the fire to warm up the strat some of you would!

The weather changes every day......please stop saying rubbish like winter is over.

[gottolovethisweather]

In spite of negative longer-term stratospheric signals, which I read as not overly desperate, to be honest. The more immediate term is nicely illustrated by the GFS 12z output, which has rescued any doubts about a watered down cold version of late October for now. Stunning synoptics indeed. Sorry for almost ramping, but winter is a coming early methinks.

Edited October 20, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Barry12]

Piers Corbyn said at the start of October there will be a cold spell at the end of October, if it comes off that is impressive lol.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Barry95

[Bristawl Si]

What happens in October, November or December does not necessarily set the tone for the rest of any Winter. So why people are coming out with rubbish about Winter's over if this and that doesn't happen is just plain silly.

Bar 2009/10 and 2010/11 i can only remember one Winter that 'started' (cold & snow) in earnest in late Nov/early Dec and that was 1981 (i'm sure there are others in my lifetime but can't remember them).

[Methuselah]

Piers Corbyn said at the start of October there will be a cold spell at the end of October, if it comes off that is impressive lol.

Not if you remember the number of times he gets it completely wrong, it isn't...Even a stopped-clock is right, twice a day!

[andymusic]

A SNOW teaser for the 29th October

[AWD]

A SNOW teaser for the 29th October

BANK ( Even if it is only snizzle )

[EML Network]

The 12z is a stonking run, IF ONLY this were December...as regards to the Strat update, I think it's worth bearing in mind that although it's a very big piece of the jigsaw, it's not the ONLY piece.

There seems to be a mentality that the ONLY way to get cold and snow is as a result of a SSW event, which just isn't the case...don't get me wrong a SSW does (more often than not) deliver the goods, but it's not the only route to a cold outbreak.

[andymusic]

J B tweet - Hey Europe.. I am not playing around about coming cold.. and neither is the GFS pic.twitter.com/aIc8pRjy

[Barry12]

The amount of times Joe B has banged on about the Europe weather being cold, if it does turn out mild he will be taken as serious as James Madden is.

[ukpaul]

The 12z is a stonking run, IF ONLY this were December...as regards to the Strat update, I think it's worth bearing in mind that although it's a very big piece of the jigsaw, it's not the ONLY piece.

There seems to be a mentality that the ONLY way to get cold and snow is as a result of a SSW event, which just isn't the case...don't get me wrong a SSW does (more often than not) deliver the goods, but it's not the only route to a cold outbreak.

Added to that, any SSW might lead to a cold outbreak in six weeks or it could well be two weeks or so. We are a month away from the time period when one might influence the start of December, never mind the ensuing few months. Ignore the far too obvious troll and, instead, keep up to date with all of the different variables (and there are some excellent posters who put it all together themselves), expect the unexpected and, if you are keeping tabs on things for work related reasons such as myself, plan for the worst in any case.

[Barry12]

Trolls are what ruin this forum