Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Ice Day]

Trolls are what ruin this forum

Trolls do what they do to get a reaction. Just ignore them, they'll soon get the message!

[chionomaniac]

Trolls are what ruin this forum

I hope that you are including yourself in that.

Regarding the strat, we are not looking for a dramatic event such as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) at this point but to the general temperature of the polar stratosphere not being significantly below average. It is when the temperature drops significantly below average that vortex intensification (VI) occurs and the speed of the mean zonal winds increase above average. This has not occurred or is forecast to occur yet and that should be taken into account.

We also have the descending eQBO which also hinders the mean zonal winds gathering pace due to the fact that it is flowing in the opposite direction from the vortex (this spreads out a little from the tropics as it descends)

I don't think todays reports warrants the response that it has received but taken in context the overall picture isn't bad but could be slightly better - that's all.

Expectation is so high in this thread that some need to relax a little and not get so wound up. If VI does occur in the next 6 weeks then that may be the time to be concerned.

c

[cheeky_monkey]

0c with heavy snow right now here in Calgary

[chionomaniac]

0c with heavy snow right now here in Calgary

Would love a picture CM!

[cheeky_monkey]

there you go

[Chess01]

Love to move to Canada when I'm older . Currently training as a gas engineer is there a good chance off getting in Canada if I get qualified

[cheeky_monkey]

Love to move to Canada when I'm older . Currently training as a gas engineer is there a good chance off getting in Canada if I get qualified

you will have to re-qualify different regulations here.

[chionomaniac]

there you go

Thanks. Looks great! Given me snow pangs.

Edited October 20, 2012 by chionomaniac

[bobbydog]

there you go

bah! that's not fair. they should call you Joe B, or something similar........

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

you will have to re-qualify different regulations here.

I thought they only used heating oil in Canada. Do they have gas boilers too there?

[bobbydog]

I hope that you are including yourself in that.

Regarding the strat, we are not looking for a dramatic event such as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) at this point but to the general temperature of the polar stratosphere not being significantly below average. It is when the temperature drops significantly below average that vortex intensification (VI) occurs and the speed of the mean zonal winds increase above average. This has not occurred or is forecast to occur yet and that should be taken into account.

We also have the descending eQBO which also hinders the mean zonal winds gathering pace due to the fact that it is flowing in the opposite direction from the vortex (this spreads out a little from the tropics as it descends)

I don't think todays reports warrants the response that it has received but taken in context the overall picture isn't bad but could be slightly better - that's all.

Expectation is so high in this thread that some need to relax a little and not get so wound up. If VI does occur in the next 6 weeks then that may be the time to be concerned.

c

great post, lets hope people take note and stop spreading doom!

just to add, even if a VI does occur, it by no means spells the end of winter. i'm sure even a strong vortex with the right set-up, can give us some decent wintry weather!

[Barry12]

I hope that you are including yourself in that.

Err..no? your the one going on about the stratosphere like its the holy gospel, not the only jigsaw in the puzzle. I think the Jetsream is MUCH more important, with it so far south, any westerlys we get will be at a minimum. Which will force the arctic and easterlys too take charge, regardless of how warm the stratosphere is.

[chionomaniac]

Err..no? your the one going on about the stratosphere like its the holy gospel, not the only jigsaw in the puzzle. I think the Jetsream is MUCH more important, with it so far south, any westerlys we get will be at a minimum. Which will force the arctic and easterlys too take charge, regardless of how warm the stratosphere is.

Yes - because the jetstream is no way linked to the massive polar vortex 12-50 km above it.

[bobbydog]

Err..no? your the one going on about the stratosphere like its the holy gospel, not the only jigsaw in the puzzle. I think the Jetsream is MUCH more important, with it so far south, any westerlys we get will be at a minimum. Which will force the arctic and easterlys too take charge, regardless of how warm the stratosphere is.

actually he's not. it's people like yourself assuming that is the case. study of the strat is still very much in its infancy (like some of the posters in here apparently) i think if people read the analysis properly they will see that Chio is not claiming that the strat is gospel but a very important "piece of the jigsaw"

[cheeky_monkey]

I thought they only used heating oil in Canada. Do they have gas boilers too there?

mostly gas..there more natural gas in in N America than you can shake a stick at

[phil nw.]

Err..no? your the one going on about the stratosphere like its the holy gospel, not the only jigsaw in the puzzle. I think the Jetsream is MUCH more important, with it so far south, any westerlys we get will be at a minimum. Which will force the arctic and easterlys too take charge, regardless of how warm the stratosphere is.

Come on Barry try and read up on things-we are all learning.

You are a fairly new member and you do yourself no favours jumping on Chiono.like that.

He has studied the Stratosphere for some years now and he deserves some respect.

[Barry12]

Ok, I apologize Chino

[J10]

Come on Barry try and read up on things-we are all learning.

You are a fairly new member and you do yourself no favours jumping on Chiono.like that.

He has studied the Stratosphere for some years now and he deserves some respect.

Totally agree chionomaniac is one of the most knowledgeable on the subject on Net Weather.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Jackone

[muddymickey]

With another 6 weeks left until winter. I can't wait, fingers crossed we get something special.

Just noticed your details - I think we may live in the same village...

[Bishop Brennan]

Thanks for the great contribution Chio. As a matter of interest, how far below "average" levels would strat temps have to drop before VI becomes a significant factor?

Bish

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

so do I .......but mine is with a wedge of lime and a shot of tequila as well

Hmmm tequila, now that is one fine drink... ;-)

[chionomaniac]

Thanks for the great contribution Chio. As a matter of interest, how far below "average" levels would strat temps have to drop before VI becomes a significant factor?

Bish

It's difficult to judge, though as a rule of thumb I look at the mean zonal wind speeds at 10 and 30 hPa.

Above 20-25m/s at 30hPa and above 40m/s at 10hPa I consider bad news.

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS still on the cold side from the 26th October

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Not if you remember the number of times he gets it completely wrong, it isn't...Even a stopped-clock is right, twice a day!

Aha, classic quote from a classic film! Perhaps we could all cover ourselves in deep heat if we get an epic winter! Lol :-)

[Barry12]

GFS still on the cold side from the 26th October

Could be highs of 5C here according to the GFS.