Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Barry12]

[Bullseye]

The volcano over in Iceland named Katla looks like it could be in for some serious buisness as the lava has risen and earthquake activity has shot up in the past 48hours the most activity since the 'Little volcano went off' 2 years back, someone reported that all the volcano needs in a slight nudge! Could this bring something different to the table if of course erupted in next month?

Edited October 20, 2012 by Bullseye

[feb1991blizzard]

Heavy snow for parts of scotland from this, blizzards over high ground.

[Liam J]

Heavy snow for parts of scotland from this, blizzards over high ground.

As good as that chart may look - the snow would be confined to the highest ground, as the uppers aren't that low & mixing would occur at lower levels due to the very strong winds + warmer sector associated with the depression. Anyway FI and speculation, nice chart though

Edited October 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Barry12]

The volcano over in Iceland named Katla looks like it could be in for some serious buisness as the lava has risen and earthquake activity has shot up in the past 48hours the most activity since the 'Little volcano went off' 2 years back, someone reported that all the volcano needs in a slight nudge! Could this bring something different to the table if of course erupted in next month?

Definitely.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/explosive-katla-could-affect-g/30707

Edited October 20, 2012 by Barry95

[Bumpkin]

The volcano over in Iceland named Katla looks like it could be in for some serious buisness as the lava has risen and earthquake activity has shot up in the past 48hours the most activity since the 'Little volcano went off' 2 years back, someone reported that all the volcano needs in a slight nudge! Could this bring something different to the table if of course erupted in next month?

http://www.katla-volcano.co.uk/katla-webcam.php

Dark at the moment

Apparently katla blows normally within a few years of Eyjafjallajokull erupting. If katla does blow then there could be problems. Shes a bit of a big momma.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Cirrostratus

[bobbydog]

The volcano over in Iceland named Katla looks like it could be in for some serious buisness as the lava has risen and earthquake activity has shot up in the past 48hours the most activity since the 'Little volcano went off' 2 years back, someone reported that all the volcano needs in a slight nudge! Could this bring something different to the table if of course erupted in next month?

not in katla it hasn't

looks pretty quiet to me!

Edited October 20, 2012 by bobbydog

[Bullseye]

In what way would this affect our winter and rest of NH? I would guess good way for people wanting cold winter and would also think need to see if does erupt whether its minor eruption or major?

[feb1991blizzard]

This could well be referred back to a forecast vortex split from the strat influence. It was predicted and feb was supposed to continue cold. however, the split p/v left a chunk over Newfoundland which spent several weeks spitting out cold air which reacted with the warm air headed ne from the eastern seaboard to create quite a strong jet and chain of depressions. It was a frustrating month given the way it started and the fact that the vortex did indeed split up as the strat forecast predicted it would. lessons to be learned that although you might be able to predict a vortex break up, you can't be sure where the 'balls will land'.

Cheers BA.

[feb1991blizzard]

As good as that chart may look - the snow would be confined to the highest ground, as the uppers aren't that low & mixing would occur at lower levels due to the very strong winds + warmer sector associated with the depression. Anyway FI and speculation, nice chart though

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2386285

Id be interested to see the thicknesses on that chart, thought there could be some serious quick dumpings in heavier bursts for the East, certainly above 2 or 3 hundred m, although im not that knowledgable on the topography on the Eastern side of scotland so i bow to you on that one.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

The volcano over in Iceland named Katla looks like it could be in for some serious buisness as the lava has risen and earthquake activity has shot up in the past 48hours the most activity since the 'Little volcano went off' 2 years back, someone reported that all the volcano needs in a slight nudge! Could this bring something different to the table if of course erupted in next month?

If that bad boy goes I think we'll all know about it! Especially with December 21 2012 approaching ;-(

[bluearmy]

Id be interested to see the thicknesses on that chart, thought there could be some serious quick dumpings in heavier bursts for the East, certainly above 2 or 3 hundred m, although im not that knowledgable on the topography on the Eastern side of scotland so i bow to you on that one.

sub 528dam roughly from newcastle across to sw scotland. small area of 520dam central scotland and 520-524 dam for areas ne of that

[johnholmes]

Id be interested to see the thicknesses on that chart, thought there could be some serious quick dumpings in heavier bursts for the East, certainly above 2 or 3 hundred m, although im not that knowledgable on the topography on the Eastern side of scotland so i bow to you on that one.

You need to concentrate on the 850mb temperatures and the 1000-850mb thickness more than what the 1000-500mb thickness is showing, and of course the T and Td not to mention IF the model is actually showing anything from the sky over the nearest spot location to you. Do remember everyone that the models are very inconsistent with precip even down to 12 hours at times so its a bit of a waste of time, other than interest, to be looking at much beyond T+96 any time.

[President Bartlett]

Hi

First post on these wonderful discussions as I have been studying over the past years. I agree Katla has the potential to be catastrophic in Iceland and any eruption will influence the weather(ash into the jet stream etc). But I can't find evidence of activity of concern since October 5th(3+ mag earthquake). Another volcano beginning with K has had a minor quake and Mt Hella still attracts interest.

Edited October 20, 2012 by President Bartlett

[shotski]

Hi Bluearmy

Where can I find the charts on meteociel for the dam lines ???

Edited October 20, 2012 by shotski

[johnholmes]

Have you tried googling for what you want?

[shotski]

Cheers John, I will give it a go. Thanx

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Id be interested to see the thicknesses on that chart, thought there could be some serious quick dumpings in heavier bursts for the East, certainly above 2 or 3 hundred m, although im not that knowledgable on the topography on the Eastern side of scotland so i bow to you on that one.

I reckon elevated areas like Braemar could get some early snow if the current charts come to fruition, Maybe even Altnaharra might get some even though it is relatively low down at 81m, but has the benefit of being in the far North inside those projected -8 uppers, we shall see. Hopefully an interesting week to come.

[Bullseye]

EH!? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[Alan Medlock Valley]

EH!? http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

Ignore it, obvious computer glitch. They'll sort it out.

[Panayiotis]

According to WeatherOutlook, its going to get chilly for my area(Cardiff) from the 26th onwards!

Edited October 20, 2012 by panayiotis

[bobbydog]

i hope we have an epic winter but for now, i hope its fairly dry and not too windy in dorset next weekend. i'll be camping!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

You need to concentrate on the 850mb temperatures and the 1000-850mb thickness more than what the 1000-500mb thickness is showing, and of course the T and Td not to mention IF the model is actually showing anything from the sky over the nearest spot location to you. Do remember everyone that the models are very inconsistent with precip even down to 12 hours at times so its a bit of a waste of time, other than interest, to be looking at much beyond T+96 any time.

Cheers for the top bit John, i will bear that in mind, i certainly think with a chart like that though, lack of PPN would not be an issue??

PS : Your boy Jamie Mcdonnell just got himself a world title shot by the looks of things.

[feb1991blizzard]

I reckon elevated areas like Braemar could get some early snow if the current charts come to fruition, Maybe even Altnaharra might get some even though it is relatively low down at 81m, but has the benefit of being in the far North inside those projected -8 uppers, we shall see. Hopefully an interesting week to come.

Never knew they were that low to be honest.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

i hope we have an epic winter but for now, i hope its fairly dry and not too windy in dorset next weekend. i'll be camping!!!

I think at this stage the strongest winds will be reserved for the far NE, still things may change.