Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion

[Gavla]

GFS 06z - OH MY GOD (complete breakdown)

SNOWSTORM FOR WALES - AMAZING - Wales as usual on the border between cold air and the low coming up from the south!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW WOW

FI - I know I know I know - but I think we have to realise the potential here

Andy your posts never fail to make me happy. Been lurking on here seeing all the hype for this winter, and iv been dying to get excited and write similar posts to yours but you have summed it up for me. Even the experienced posters on here seem to be ramping this up so im confident we are being sent to the freezer just a matter of how cold and how much snow i think now!!

[andymusic]

Andy your posts never fail to make me happy. Been lurking on here seeing all the hype for this winter, and iv been dying to get excited and write similar posts to yours but you have summed it up for me. Even the experienced posters on here seem to be ramping this up so im confident we are being sent to the freezer just a matter of how cold and how much snow i think now!!

Thanks Gavla - appreciated - here's a snow accumulation chart up till 1st December - couple of inches possible even up till then - God knows how much if the GFS 6z comes off - SNOWMAGEDDON - couple of feet! - this could be really brutal - making plans now for food and other supplies - could be a very long tough winter ahead!

[keithlucky]

I'm guessing Steve Murr meant to say "a 72 hour snowstorm".

I know that December 3rd is still a little early in the season for this kind of event, but the chart runs have been quite consistent lately as I'm sure we all know.

What is fascinating is we heading for a cold spell but being unsettled and wintry with it ,with rain or showers gradually by the the middle of next week turning more wintry .With a slow cool down over Europe we need temperatures a lot lower across Europe at the moment still too mild there(6c in Berlin) ,The easterlies forecast for next week will gradually drag colder air across the UK so watch the temperatures plummet after Wednesday and let the fun begin. Edited November 23, 2012 by keithlucky

[Marcus_surfer]

Things really do look interesting and even though it looks to be a east northeast wind, once we get the cold in snow can come from anywhere and once we get A cold snap, there are plenty of chances for snow to occur. Andy keep those posts coming love seeing you get excited !

[Blackjack]

Even GP is on the verge of ramping on the Modeling Thread. This is shaping up nicely. Lot and lots of talk of a Dec 2010. Better get the freezer stocked.

As usual i love seeing that Welsh flag pop up in the forum and some snowmaggedon charts.

Tickets for the rugby tomorrow though. Not sure if im looking forward less to the weather or the match. Both could be terrible.

[Ukwoody]

Sorry, I keep meaning to ask, what does Fl stand for??

woody

[Blackjack]

Sorry, I keep meaning to ask, what does Fl stand for??

woody

As far as i know Fantasy Island.

[Ukwoody]

Ahhh right, thats why I couldn't find it, lol. Cheers BlackJack

Woody

[judowidow]

I agree Blackjack you know that winter is coming when you see lots of excited posts off AndyMusic :-) last nights rain was awful I nearly got stuck in the flooding between Llanover and Cwmbran :-(

[Blackjack]

I agree Blackjack you know that winter is coming when you see lots of excited posts off AndyMusic :-) last nights rain was awful I nearly got stuck in the flooding between Llanover and Cwmbran :-(

Coming down Black Rock wasn't much fun either. It was pretty much a river

[mikeocarroll]

I think one of the charts I looked at yesterday showed a scenario similar in FI to today's GFS 06z, which would potentially produce lots of snow for Wales over a sustained period. So these current synoptics give us the potential for mega snow, but a scenario like the one in today'sGFS 06z needs to be spot on - if the low is a hundred miles south we are dry and cold, if the low is a hundred miles north then we are stuck with rain, and that sort of small scale position can't be known until about 48 hours max (just look how the models are struggling with the position of this weekend's low, still moving its position by a hundred miles here and there at just over 24 hours now).

As Jackone says higher up the thread, a cold north-easterly doesn't usually bring all that much precip to Wales (it can do though - showers came all the way from the east coast in dec 2010), and as Gibby says in the model thread, the forecast uppers and thicknesses may not quite be cold enough for proper snow at low levels, if the low pressure to the east of the UK doesn't orientate itself quite how we would want it.

So while I'm very excited about the propsect of cold and snow, which could be spectacular, with the real cold air still a week away then there is still plenty of time for us all to be disappointed. The reason I'm getting excited though is that the forecast synoptics are so good, that even if we don't get snow at first, there is an excellent chance that we'll get snow somewhere down the line over the next few weeks.

[J10]

I think one of the charts I looked at yesterday showed a scenario similar in FI to today's GFS 06z, which would potentially produce lots of snow for Wales over a sustained period. So these current synoptics give us the potential for mega snow, but a scenario like the one in today'sGFS 06z needs to be spot on - if the low is a hundred miles south we are dry and cold, if the low is a hundred miles north then we are stuck with rain, and that sort of small scale position can't be known until about 48 hours max (just look how the models are struggling with the position of this weekend's low, still moving its position by a hundred miles here and there at just over 24 hours now).

As Jackone says higher up the thread, a cold north-easterly doesn't usually bring all that much precip to Wales (it can do though - showers came all the way from the east coast in dec 2010), and as Gibby says in the model thread, the forecast uppers and thicknesses may not quite be cold enough for proper snow at low levels, if the low pressure to the east of the UK doesn't orientate itself quite how we would want it.

So while I'm very excited about the propsect of cold and snow, which could be spectacular, with the real cold air still a week away then there is still plenty of time for us all to be disappointed. The reason I'm getting excited though is that the forecast synoptics are so good, that even if we don't get snow at first, there is an excellent chance that we'll get snow somewhere down the line over the next few weeks.

I thought it was Buzz who said that, but what is it exciting me is the synoptics which are simply astonishing, effectively reverse zonality of a type that pre 2008, many thought were not possible any more.

Once you get embedded cold, snow can come form many directions. As we found out in Feb 09 and Jan 10. I think those years are right,

As far as i know Fantasy Island.

Meaning that the charts are so far off as to be unrealistic.

[mikeocarroll]

I thought it was Buzz who said that,

So it was, apologies to both!

Edited November 23, 2012 by mikeocarroll

[andymusic]

looks like 30th November is D-Day from looking at a few bits of data - slightly different GFS 12z - but overall moving in the same direction

slight - ever so slight chance of some back edge sleety/snow on tuesday - but very fleeting

[alijoe]

It IS going to snow.......because I bought my 1st ever snow shovel today

[andymusic]

It IS going to snow.......because I bought my 1st ever snow shovel today

nice one Ali - I think I might need to get an american snow blower for up here! LOL

anyway - talking of american - Joe B tweeting again

Rain means something .. signs of change in pattern when excessive in winter. Here we go again! Heavy UK rains, then the iceman cometh

Amazing how this looks like 2010 in Europe Nov got warm.. heavy rains smashed into UK, then whip came down in Dec!

I'm already busily warning friends family - facebook - you name it - important peeps get ready for this I think!

wouldn't mind getting one of these - could come in very useful - maybe i could hire it out to the neighbours too

Edited November 23, 2012 by andymusic

[J10]

So it was, apologies to both!

No probs, I was just wondering If I had said it.

Today's GFS 12Hz run shows how things could possibly go wrong, the synoptic still look good, but slightly different phasing has big repercussions as to how things will plan out.

Other runs are now important, as to the accuracy of the GFS run, a new trend or a bad run, only time will tell.

[keithlucky]

Pre-Alert Weather for the next week will begin with severe weather, will end up with the cold and snow! by Peppe Caridi, MeteoWeb.eu

We move closer and closer to the end of the month in which, as we write for days, the weather on Italy is "light" again so impetuous as a result of adverse weather conditions, after the brief respite of these days we're living in a transition after the long bad weather in recent weeks, and the first of what will be an outburst winter tinted in the last few days of the month of November 2012.

In Italy these days is a bit "no man's land", without figures anticyclonic to ensure good weather and warm, but also without any kind of disturbance around our country that has an atmosphere, therefore, characterized by a lot of clouds, mist and mists, some weak rainstorm scattered patchy and some timid cleared.

[Snowmadsam]

well folks ECM seems happy

just to relax you all from excitement

[andymusic]

okay folks - right then - keep your eyes on tuesday/wednesday morning next week - I have a feeling that temps are gonna be very marginal under all that precip over Wales - there's just a chance with a little elevation that we will start to see the wintry stuff - only a chance - but models are playing with this idea at the mo - we are on the right side of the precip drawing in the colder element of the set up for this to happen!

[dyl232]

Hope your right andy :-) every winter i enjoy reading your excellent posts, and your always bang on when u predict the white stuff around my area! This man is a legend. Hope we get pasted this coming weeks :-)

[J10]

More interested atm at next Saturday, cold uppers, low pressure and NW winds. Suggested by both GFS and ECM tonight.

Very much a long way off though and although the general theme of turning colder is quite consistent anything beyond that is anything but consistent.

Still looks worrying in short term though for more rain over weekend.

[keithlucky]

More interested atm at next Saturday, cold uppers, low pressure and NW winds. Suggested by both GFS and ECM tonight.

Very much a long way off though and although the general theme of turning colder is quite consistent anything beyond that is anything but consistent.

Still looks worrying in short term though for more rain over weekend.

Had to print chart Jackone everybody SAVE this chart

[keithlucky]

At least Jackone they grit the motorways constantly Jackone you have more problems getting up and down Tycoch Hill

[andymusic]

Had to print chart Jackone everybody SAVE this chart

Nice chart there Keith - shame I'm gonna be in Onley, Bedfordshire though that night - I'll miss all the fun!

Fronts and showers - set up will alter before then I'm sure - but we are still heading for a good set up for wintry weather and I think we in Wales are in the right place to benefit from quite a bit of it!

and here's the meteociel one to match it

Edited November 23, 2012 by andymusic