Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards

[weather eater]

Well, even out into FI the cold doesn't quite reach the UK

Another run that pushes back the potential. Sorry but I really feel we're just chasing charts in FI now, the cold never gets any closer if it bothers to show up at all, it's been like this for several days now.

There is no change in the timing of the change to a blocking pattern, but what does change from run to run is how that pattern sets up in relation to us, thus we get runs where colder air reaches us sooner and some where the colder air is pushed out to latter in FI. Now we may or may not see a cold end to Nov start of Dec but it’s only the trend towards the blocking pattern that’s important at the moment and that seems to be pretty rock solid, the details are not important for the time being.

[johnholmes]

guys 1thing i find confusing is that gp is sticking to his guns then tmw posting 1thing steav m posting how good for us down the line its confusing for any1 who's new on here. Sorry mods for the off topick post, but some1 like me who cant see the charts it's confusing.

hi

I'm not surprised you find it confusing, folk get wound up and excited, at times for no real reason.

Please pm me and I will try to help in text only or go back to this morning and my post on how to watch models and not get too confused by the ups and downs and what seem like contradictions from one poster to another. Time scales have something to do with it.

to repeat and no apology for sounding like a stuck record.

Stop following beyond T+240 and maybe even below that at times on EVERY run looking ONLY at the GFS basic chart. Check at those time scales same time from day to day and see what continuity the model shows. look at the upper air as it matters not one jot, much of the time, how 'juicy' a surface chart looks if the upper air pattern does not fit.

To end on a positive note for you coldies, another day with the overall balance on the 500mb anomaly charts, NOAA and NAEFS have been shown this evening, and the ECMWF-GFS were not that different for similar times scales this morning, they all to some extent suggest the trough edging east allowing both heights to rise to the NW and north and possibly the NE; that is around 10-15 days ahead NOT now.

Edited November 15, 2012 by johnholmes

[Cheshire Freeze]

I dont think I have ever seen a less plausible evolution in FI in nearly 10 years of model watching.

We might get MLB followed by some sort of retrogression, but I can almost guarantee it won't look anything like that.

The 18z is a strange run all round; with a general change in amplitude (flatter) from quite early on, in comparison to the 12z. I did look at FI and think 'well that looks highly implausible!'

[PolarWarsaw]

I have to agree with the sentiments Dan has stated. On October 30th I heard 'look 2 weeks from now' - well its the 15th and we're still looking at mid 200's and close to 300 hours before we see any synoptics remotely 'chilly' or snow bearing. I honestly think we've been chasing a phantom cold spell at the end of November for close to 2-3 weeks already. Hope I'm wrong as Im a sledger with the best, but I have that iffy feeling.

[lorenzo]

Well it's been making brief appearances in FI last night right at the end of the GFS 18z run.

Now it has crept into the CPC Day 8 Super Ensemble list of analogs.

One of many solutions, but cannot miss the chance to lift that chart out of the archive, especially when it's on their radar.

[SMU]

Just before theres any suicidal Posts- 18Z + 06Z ensembles- Chocolate fireguards in these scenarios. All they want to do with energy is send it poleward.

S

[johnholmes]

Steve, with respect please pack it in. How can the 18z, last evening or the one before be acceptable to you, and at other times it is not?

No wonder the newer ones are confused about what ANY model is actually showing.

PLEASE can we have objective posts with as little bias as possible?

Show proof of them being no good in 'these' scenarios what ever these are in your mind.

I am not looking for an argument simply to get reasonable posts and explanations if any of us go off on one!

[Liam J]

Yep , well the golden charts will start appearing now in the 192-240 range & possibly beyond...

To be fair though People sometimes dont listen & 'hear; about how model errors in terms of being to progressive can lead to a model being fast by up to 3 days at day 10-

So you can sit at day 10 for 3 days & move nowhere- I know that- sadly not everyone does-

its felt a bit like that this week..

S

Credit to you Steve should all the synoptics falls into place as you keep predicting, but, you are making some very sure footed assumptions from what are generally poor outputs, another 24 hours on and no cold or snowy weather is any closer (unfortunately) .... When should we expect to see the 'golden charts' jumping towards the reliable time frame?

Edited November 16, 2012 by chionomaniac
Removal of previous edited section

[SMU]

Steve, with respect please pack it in. How can the 18z, last evening or the one before be acceptable to you, and at other times it is not?

No wonder the newer ones are confused about what ANY model is actually showing.

PLEASE can we have objective posts with as little bias as possible?

Show proof of them being no good in 'these' scenarios what ever these are in your mind.

I am not looking for an argument simply to get reasonable posts and explanations if any of us go off on one!

Pack what in John exactly & to be honest you either follow my posts or you dont. Ive posted the reasons time & time again. & again. infact every winter month of every year,

The 18z Ensembles & the 06z Are useless time & time again.

After 168 the 18z & 06z Ensembles do not put any energy under a block. EVER.

They send all the energy poleward & mute any blocking signal away.

THe 18z OPERATIONAL occasionally gets close.

I did a full paragraph last night on my long post on where the GFS would be in its 06/12z/18z & 00z runs.- they all have incorrect bias.

Why- Read the end of my post above yours.

& PS LIAM- I never mentioned the S word to date.

S

Edited November 15, 2012 by Steve Murr

[johnholmes]

In what way are they useless Steve, please show proof of your suggestion

[bluearmy]

18z gefs similar to the 12z. Plenty of HLB and plenty of interesting solutions for cold.

[SMU]

In what way are they useless Steve, please show proof of your suggestion

I dont need to john- look at the GFS ensemble mean at 228 on tonights run- its flatter that a witches t*t.

If you dont want to take my word for it then - dont.

However Ive sat through 8 years & 24 winter months & every single 18z run ~ 720 Ensemble Suites & 720 06z Suites.

Thats enough to make an informed decision.

S

[Continental Climate]

I think there are some people on this forum who need a touch of reality. These amazing charts with greenie highs are always in the deepest parts of FI since when has deep FI been reliable territory that commands such respect? People need to stop leading the less knowledgable (like me) up the garden path with charts two weeks into the future or saying things like "once we get into mid december, thats when the fun will begin", I see no evidence of this and neither do some other respected institutions which point toward mild. I love the cold but it will be frustrating if all we get from people is "it's looking good in 10-15 days time"!!

[gottolovethisweather]

18z gefs similar to the 12z. Plenty of HLB and plenty of interesting solutions for cold.

I agree, whilst I haven't seen the 18z and they do appear to be trending that way over consecutive days now.

[SMU]

http://www.emc.ncep....00x.region.html

Model accuracy by cycle- 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z- for the 6 regions of the NH

Look at the accuracy for EU2ROPE on the 18z...

Look at Asia on the 18z.

Look at the Pacific on the 18z.

The 18z & 06z are considerably worse than the 12z & 00Z.-

Now run the 18z & 06Z ensembles which are lower resolution than ALL the operationals & you get a huge Deviation of error.

Now add in the even LOWER resolution post T180 & that makes the 18z & 06Z ensemble suite as useful a tool as a chocolate hammer.

Im aware your helping the newer people along, but unless these new people cant read or choose to ignore then all this is really old old news.

S

Edited November 16, 2012 by Steve Murr

[davehsug]

But, when the 18z or 06z show what coldies want it's useful & an indicator, they can't have it both ways surely?

[johnholmes]

I've ticked your post Dave but it does deserve a comment

The point you raise is exactly why so many new folk, I do get the odd pm along these lines,get so totally confused by sometimes a run is accepted, whatever time it is, and others it is not, most, not all, but the great majority are for just the reason you quote.

It's highly unscientific which is probably why as a trained scientist I find it hard to understand it being done.

Anyway I'm clogging up the thread, life has other things more important than this thread, no disrespect to anyone on here, at my age it is well past my bed time, so good night flks.

[SMU]

But, when the 18z or 06z show what coldies want it's useful & an indicator, they can't have it both ways surely?

When you have the ECM showing a pattern ( Especially in a developing Scandi high type scenario ) the ECM will lead the way- it has always been the lead over this region since the day dot.

You can throw as many upgrades at the GFS - but it still doesnt 'do undercutting'- only the 00z & sometimes 12z 'see' that pattern. The 06z & 18z ensembles suite cant & wont because of their poor resolution & data--

However *IF* you get an operational from the 18z or 06z that shows broadly the same pattern as the ECM then yes you can look at the comparisons.....

S

Edited November 16, 2012 by Steve Murr

[gottolovethisweather]

I dont need to john- look at the GFS ensemble mean at 228 on tonights run- its flatter that a witches t*t.

If you dont want to take my word for it then - dont.

However Ive sat through 8 years & 24 winter months & every single 18z run ~ 720 Ensemble Suites & 720 06z Suites.

Thats enough to make an informed decision.

S

Why should or shouldn't that evolution work out though, I suppose that is the question of debate here. Why should it or shouldn't it be correct, just because the 12z or MetO, GEM or whatever did not go for the same trend? Again, I respect everyone's views on here and an answer to that puzzle is probably beyond all of us. WHY? MAYBE BECAUSE THE FUTURE HASN'T EVEN OCCURRED YET.

The general evolution produced by the various model outputs should and are taken with a pinch of salt by most members. I like many others (SM included) with their wonderfully knowledgeable input can at least see a trend away from the limpet troughing over the UK to a more settled cooler outcome, albeit in deep FI.

Night night all, another day of fun and games tomorrow.

Please keep posting rationally.

Edited November 16, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

Because the 18z ensembles only predict one future.......... thats why.

[nick sussex]

Personally I have no time for any of the lower resolution output of the GFS and my thoughts are well known in here regardless of what it shows.

This is even more pertinent with the current synoptics where the distribution of jet energy is crucial for the outcome.

I will however comment on its higher resolution output which goes back to what I've been droning on about for much of the day, we do need to maintain sufficient upstream amplification to finally get rid of the limpet trough, as we saw from the GFS the pattern flattened out and hence that trough just sat there before edging north, regardless of its better output later in the lower resolution the chances of getting from that underwhelming higher resolution to the more appealing synoptics later are IMO extremely low.

We need to see the trough at least split much further west or be forced south,and the upstream amplification plays a crucial role here.

Given the set up if we get the right upstream amplification then the rest will take care of itself all this will be determined in the higher resolution, theres a reason the GFS often comes out with four different scenarios in its lower resolution each day, its just to entertain this thread!

View it as entertainment but my advice don't take it too seriously especially when theres a suggestion of a pattern change.

Adding to SM's post if we hark back to last year which were the two models that made a dogs dinner of that February cold spell, the GFS and more surprisingly the UKMO couldn't handle a shortwave and caused alot of drama in here and that was within 144hrs.

The ECM might not be perfect but certainly for European high pressure its streets ahead of the rest.

Edited November 16, 2012 by nick sussex

[SnowBallz]

Personally I have no time for any of the lower resolution output of the GFS and my thoughts are well known in here regardless of what it shows.

This is even more pertinent with the current synoptics where the distribution of jet energy is crucial for the outcome.

I will however comment on its higher resolution output which goes back to what I've been droning on about for much of the day, we do need to maintain sufficient upstream amplification to finally get rid of the limpet trough, as we saw from the GFS the pattern flattened out and hence that trough just sat there before edging north, regardless of its better output later in the lower resolution the chances of getting from that underwhelming higher resolution to the more appealing synoptics later are IMO extremely low.

We need to see the trough at least split much further west or be forced south,and the upstream amplification plays a crucial role here.

Given the set up if we get the right upstream amplification then the rest will take care of itself all this will be determined in the higher resolution, theres a reason the GFS often comes out with four different scenarios in its lower resolution each day, its just to entertain this thread!

View it as entertainment but my advice don't take it too seriously especially when theres a suggestion of a pattern change.

Quite right.

The consistent scatter in low-res should really be enough of a hint to put people off taking the output with any degree of credibility. Mathematically, the variation is laughable.

Over the last week or so, we've seen particularly large variance in the long-range, low-res output. To me, as a mathematician, that signifies that there is significant margins of error involved, either in the start data - unlikely - or the final prognosis, more likely. Therein, I would not be so bold as to make such confident claims either way, re conditions in the 10-14 day window.

The background signals are more important, and avoiding the intra-day variance, you can see the gentle evolution towards what Stewart has been alluding to. For me, that's a lot more important, than seeing pretty little pictures in "FI" which constantly change, not only by day, but each 6hr'ly run. I don't think their low-res output adds or brings a single thing to the table.

What we need is broad consistency across a range of wider signals, and Stewart fantastically describes the favourability in terms of these indices in his video. I've yet to see any contribution to this forum as thoroughly informative and genuinely educating as that one single video, and I'd implore most of you take the time to watch it.

[SMU]

OK just to proove how bad the GFS is at certain point lets take the favourite discussion point these days Nov 10-

Nov 17th ACTUAL

http://modeles.meteo...0-11-17-0-0.png

Note the location of the scandi high- JUST to our east- doesnt get any further back than that-

Nov 21st ACTUAL

http://modeles.meteo...0-11-21-0-0.png

Note the Huge WAA over western greenland- this was The signal for that prolonged cold spell.

So lets run the inter cycle runs for the days before it-

DAY 10. ( 10 days before the 17th & 14 days before Greenland WAA)

00z + 240

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 NO CLUE

06z + 240

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 NO CLUE

12z + 240

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 HUM - some high pressure build.

18z + 240

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 HUM- Some High pressure build to the east

12Z 240 ECM-

http://www.meteociel...your=7&annee=2010 Looksgood - low pressure slowing down against a block.

Day 9 at 216 Hours-

00z GFS 216

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 Kernals of scandi high but WAY WAY back

06z GFS 216

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 NO CLUE

12z GFS 216

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 Pressure looks good to the East but WAY back-

18z GFS 216

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 TO FAR EAST !

12z ECM 216

http://www.meteociel...=1&ech=72&map=1 Scandi high to far back but has a trough trying to DIG south-

& onto Day 8 for 192

00z GfS 192

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 NO CLUE

06z GFS 192

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 OH DEARY DEAR.

12z GFS 192

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 A bit better- TO FAR EAST

18z GFS 192

http://www.meteociel...ech=204&carte=1 To FAR EAST not as good as 12z.

12z ECM at 192

http://www.meteociel...=1&ech=72&map=1 Highly amplified with Scandi block but not enough undercutting-

Move onto day 7 now- things should start to Improve.

00z GFS at 168

http://www.meteociel...chive=1&carte=1 BEST GFS scandi block so far... not bad there after- picks up greenland block.

06z GFS at 168

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Poor - no distinct scandi high. Overunning therafter,

12 GFS at 168

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Very poor. no scandi high- 12 z GFS to fast with northern energy.

18z GFS at 168

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Scandi high develops- but gets overun.

12Z ECM

http://www.meteociel...=1&ech=72&map=1 Undercutting Scandi high- Best model yet.

onto day 6....

00z GFS at 144

http://www.meteociel...chive=1&carte=1 Scandi high blown away- to nothing to far east

06z GFS at 144

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Scandi high blown away, again.

12z GFS at 144

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Way far east BUT picks up the greenland pattern.

18z GFS at 144

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 similar but to far EAST AGAIN.

NO ECM DATA IN ARCHIVE.

on we roll to 120-- can the GFS get it right yet>Even though the ECM has been churning out for days now.

120 00Z GFS

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 STILL NO UNDERCUT & NO GH BLOCK

120 06z GFS

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 A TAD of undercut but no blocking after.

120 12z GFS

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Gets Greenland block but STILL no undercut at 120

120 18z GFS

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Slightly better now - undercut at 120 & some ridge to GH

NO ECM TODAY AGAIN.

Day 4 96 hrs- can the GFS, get some energy under neath yet

00z GFS 96

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1 Very messy STILL no clear pattern.

06z 96

http://www.meteociel...chive=1&carte=1 A bit more undercutting - pattern slightly clearer-

12z 96- This must finally get it right-

http://www.meteociel...chive=1&carte=1 To far East & slightly toppler but better again

18z

http://www.meteociel...chive=1&carte=1 similar but the best run

Do we dare go another day-

down to t72 now

GFS not bad ALL day

ECM 12z-

http://www.meteociel...=1&ech=96&map=1 PERFECT RUN to the Actuals

12z ECM 96

http://www.meteociel...=1&ech=96&map=1 Undercutting + Greenland block + sustained cold

I watched EVERY ensemble run on these, & typically we are going through the same emotions, the followers of the GFS ( the likes of Ian brown et al) - All comments- nothings coming- Why because the GFS is always to far east & to much energy into the Northern arm going 'over the top'

Its a pity the 11th &12th is missing from the ECM in the archives because it so trumped the GFS-

The GFS couldnt get ANY undercutting on ANY run right up to T96 - & because of that pretty much toppled every block SE-

As said the ensembles did the same - just at a higher degree of speed in sinking the block- especially the 06z & 18z GFS- as they are so poorly resolved all the assumptions is that energy will move OVER blocks as opposed to under them..........

I posted a few comments on the GFS bias last night-

To far EAST on ALL Scandi high Scenarios, ALL runs hard to discover the undercutting, Ensembles even weaker at undercutting signal- ECM >ALL GFS runs on a scandi block.

I hope this sort of illustrates what I see - The GFS does the same year in year out for Easterlies downstream -

this time around the GFS will be to far east as usual & to flat.....

regards

S

Edited November 16, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Richie V]

http://www.emc.ncep....00x.region.html

Model accuracy by cycle- 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z- for the 6 regions of the NH

Look at the accuracy for EU2ROPE on the 18z...

Look at Asia on the 18z.

Look at the Pacific on the 18z.

The 18z & 06z are considerably worse than the 12z & 00Z.-

Now run the 18z & 06Z ensembles which are lower resolution than ALL the operationals & you get a huge Deviation of error.

Now add in the even LOWER resolution post T180 & that makes the 18z & 06Z ensemble suite as useful a tool as a chocolate hammer.

Im aware your helping the newer people along, but unless these new people cant read or choose to ignore then all this is really old old news.

S

Good evening Mr Murr, I trust you are well?

I for one am underwhelmed by what is been shown on tonights 18Z and can assure you I won't be loosing my wad over it. Post T200 hrs every damn winter for the past six years do we see this FI Prosac cold trip. It took me two years of pain to learn but hey... I made It. Lets see the GFS get a handle on Mondays low first shall we!

If we get the 200Hrs+ drivel braught up to T 120 - T 90 Hrs then I'll start to sit up.

Personally, I'm suffering full on severe gale withdraw symptoms. Please make it stop.... Kill me now....

[Hairy Celt]

Personally, I'm suffering full on severe gale withdraw symptoms. Please make it stop.... Kill me now....

BANG