Heavy Rain, Flooding, High Winds - 21st November onward

[Paul]

For those after a local rain forecast, we've just updated our will it rain feature to a new look, and it now includes a local radar

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wira;sess=

[Liam J]

Met Office have issued further warnings for Thursdays severe weather event, much of western UK is now under the warning field.

http://www.metoffice...ather/warnings/

A spell of very wet and very windy weather is expected to move west to east across many parts of the UK during Thursday. Coming so soon after the heavy rain which fell in places earlier in the week this is likely to provoke further issues with flooding. Additionally, winds will gust to 50 to 60 mph in places, and could exceed 70 mph in some exposed western areas.

In view of the wind and rain combination, the public should be prepared for some transport disruption.

Wouldn't mind having a look at some of the MetO's UKV charts for tomorrow....

Edited November 21, 2012 by Liam J

[Paul]

We've just split a few posts out of the previous general thread to start a new one specific to the severe weather during the next couple of days. More heavy rain, flooding and an increased threat of gales or severe gales is likely into tomorrow.

[Liam J]

Tomorrow mornings rush hour could be a bit tricky tomorrow with flooding, fallen branches perhaps even some fallen trees blocking roads.

Quite a serious situation for those who have already been affected by flooding through the course of the last few days.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Liam J

[AWD]

Tomorrow mornings rush hour could be a bit tricky tomorrow with flooding, fallen branches perhaps even some fallen trees blocking roads.

Quite a serious situation for those who have already been affected by flooding through the course of the last few days.

I think tomorrow evenings rush hour will be worse, especially across the SW where we have already had a deluge today.

The front is expected to arrive sometime during the afternoon and be in full swing by the evening rush hour here.

[nodrog]

Looks like Scotland will see the strongest gales. Winds look strong even inland for the UK.

I noticed off the GFS some mini vortex's ( Don't know what they are called) with this squall line even into the weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

I personally like gales rather than the cold so this fits fine.

Stay safe.

[Liam J]

I think tomorrow evenings rush hour will be worse, especially across the SW where we have already had a deluge today.

The front is expected to arrive sometime during the afternoon and be in full swing by the evening rush hour here.

To start the day it'll be western fringes taking the brunt with conditions improving from here late morning as the front pushes east taking the strongest winds away with it. Taking longer to clear the SW though as the front becomes slow moving and pivots.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

A tad cheeky I know, but could anyone post the NMM gust chart for tomorrow?

Cheers.

[Coast]

Looks like a lot of us are going to see high sustained winds and gusts in the next 24 hours+

Significant wind shear could bring the chance of an isolated tornado:

and unfortunately, more rain to areas already flooding:

[Nick F]

Certainly looks wild over the next 48hrs, gusts of 60-70mph in a steep pressure gradient ahead of a potentially intense squall line along the polar cold front. Moving slowly E/SE tomorrow across more northern and western areas. Might possibly see a Line Echo Wave Pattern develop too, which in itself could bring some damaging outflow winds, intense rainfall, hail, ligntning and even a tornado embedded. Though uncertainties over how much low-level instability will be realised.

06z GFS has now come into line with ECM in bringing in another deepening low across Sern Britain late Sat/early Sun, with heavy rain and strong winds wrapping around it. So risk of further flooding may not be over after tomorrow.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Nick F

[J10]

NMM forecast rainfall. :-

NAE Forecast Rainfall :-

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Clearly this amount of rainfall could cause flooding in more especially in SE Wales and the West Country where the heaviest of the rain fell over the past hours.

The biggest risk areas to me is in parts of the Valleys in SE Wales, particularly as much of the rainfall is forecast to be in a very short period of time as the squall line pushes through.

Please feel free to take down Extra images if needed.

Others have mentioned the strong winds and I wouldn't be surprised if there are 80mph winds locally.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Jackone

[weatherobsuk]

Sferics offshore Southern & Northern Ireland, a few tens of miles out west in the Atlantic in association with tomorrow mornings squall. MetO going for 75mph gusts across the high routes of the Peak District for a time tomorrow afternoon.

[johnholmes]

Julian-the NMM rainfall charts are 'back to front'?

[simon29]

Is it usual to get squalls this late in the year?.I remember the last one which was early september and was quite scary at the time as I was walking home and the winds just came out of nowhere, it only lasted a few minutes but felt much longer.

[carinthian]

Certainly looks wild over the next 48hrs, gusts of 60-70mph in a steep pressure gradient ahead of a potentially intense squall line along the polar cold front. Moving slowly E/SE tomorrow across more northern and western areas. Might possibly see a Line Echo Wave Pattern develop too, which in itself could bring some damaging outflow winds, intense rainfall, hail, ligntning and even a tornado embedded. Though uncertainties over how much low-level instability will be realised.

06z GFS has now come into line with ECM in bringing in another deepening low across Sern Britain late Sat/early Sun, with heavy rain and strong winds wrapping around it. So risk of further flooding may not be over after tomorrow.

Looking very wild over the UK at the moment. I think this weekends feature is soon to be upgraded by the UKMO, especially for Southern Britain. Charts later today may show this development. I know out here it is already being talked about as a trigger for a major change in type for next week.

C

[Raidan]

Not looking forward to the next batch of rain,has already been chaos on my street today with the flooding,hope the wind isn't to strong as well I have a tree bigger than my house in the front garden.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the north east is going to miss the worst of the rain looking at those totals 7mm to 10mm looks the maximum

[Coast]

I think this weekends feature is soon to be upgraded by the UKMO, especially for Southern Britain.

It certainly is a fast moving event and not as all expected.

[Nick F]

Is it usual to get squalls this late in the year?.I remember the last one which was early september and was quite scary at the time as I was walking home and the winds just came out of nowhere, it only lasted a few minutes but felt much longer.

Not unsual IMO in late November to get squalls coming through on active polar fronts.

Looking very wild over the UK at the moment. I think this weekends feature is soon to be upgraded by the UKMO, especially for Southern Britain. Charts later today may show this development. I know out here it is already being talked about as a trigger for a major change in type for next week.

C

Yes, yet to manifest on the faxes, but with GFS and ECM in agreement now - it may appear on the updates later.

Though I guess there is still room for error on the track!

[Zenarcher]

Looking at the NMM gust charts this looks like what is going to happen. Throughout tonight the front moves in from the West bringing gusts around 55 to 65mph to Ireland and Western Scotland. At 7am it gets stronger as it moves East across the country it now brings around 70mph for Wales, Northern England and Southern Scotland. At 10am the front has now moved inland so still the same area's getting affected as before and wind gusts still reaching 65mph. Then around 2pm gusts over 65mph move across the Midlands and South West England.

It looks like most of the UK will experience some nasty weather tomorrow. I'll make a more into depth post later.

Edited November 21, 2012 by weathermaster

[johnholmes]

oh dear, look where it is starting!

Anyone remember all the trouble all the models and Exeter had with, I think it was 3 druing the summer/early autumn with weather systems coming from this area?

I suspect you may well get quite marked alterations as we count down from the models and Exeter.

Take a look at how Exeter have already changed things overnight.

On the Fax chart that issued at 2142 last evening for 12z Saturday as the T+96 compared to the T+84 issued at 0603 this morning again for 12z Saturday.

Just how this will play out is wide open in my view when one remembers all the problems even below T+24 in the summer/early autumn issues. Admittedly at least one of those was ex tropical storm material but anything at any time of the year from close by NW Iberia/ seems to create all kinds of modelling issues.

Edited November 21, 2012 by johnholmes

[Coast]

Just how this will play out is wide open in my view when one remembers all the problems even below T+24 in the summer/early autumn issues. Admittedly at least one of those was ex tropical storm material but anything at any time of the year from close by NW Iberia/ seems to create all kinds of modelling issues.

I think that sums it up very well John!

[Nick F]

I agree John, dangerous territory being specific on the track of the weekend's low right now given the history of lows from that direction, so I'm holding back on issuing a watch for the weekend until perhaps the runs tomorrow.

But, ECM looks worrying for the SW again:

[VillagePlank]

Well it's certainly blowing strong up here on Bluebell Hill! And it's not even in the warning: somewhere between Beaufort 6 and 7 at the minute. Wouldn't be surprised to get to 8/9 poss gusts to 10 before the evening's out.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[IanM]

An active storm is passing over SW Ireland at the moment. 443 strikes so far today, most of them around the Irish coast :