Heavy Rain, Flooding, High Winds - 21st November onward

[Liam J]

Sounds like its all happening tomorrow while guess where I'll be!? School -,- No doubt if anything happens, I will miss it...

You'll have to take a weather sick day lol but don't tell them who suggested it,.....

http://cf.gov.im/weather

Detailed Forecast

Issued by Ronaldsway Meteorological Office at 21 November 2012 11:00PM

Outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, will become more widespread overnight with strengthening southerly winds reaching gale force later with gusts to 55mph. Minimum temperature 10C / 50F.

The rain will become persistent and heavy mid to late morning tomorrow, with the risk of localised flooding. The southerly gales reaching severe gale force in places for a short time, with gusts to about 65 mph, leading to some debris and damage in places, and hazardous driving conditions especially for high-sided vehicles on upland roads. The heaviest rain will clear from around early afternoon, with the winds easing by then, but further rain or showers can still be expected at times. Temperatures near 9C / 48F.

[pyrotech]

K1 Buoy

Reporting increase in wind (mean speed) to 31.1knts

Wave heights now 19ft

[matty40s]

I am currently sat having checked my ropes, the river is 1" over the towpath and the surrounding mile of fields has disappeared. The current flood conditions are not expected to peak until midday today (thurs) and by then the storm front should be well with us.

Expect to see some spectacular footage of flooding in the Soar valley (N Leics)

[The watcher]

heavy squally rain with hailstones and strong winds here now.

[The PIT]

Away from the North West the front doesn't look too active which is good news for areas further south worried about flooding. It may get more active as it moves east so radar watching is the key for today.

GFS takes the strongest winds much further east and south with 60mph + gusts moved to the south west and central regions then moving to the south east although weakening quite a bit.

[WaitingForMackerel]

Current conditions here are wind 35-47 mph with max gust here of 53 mph, generally from the south with a touch of west in it. Temp is 12 C and pressure is 1001.9 falling at 1 hpa/hour.

Generally very blustery with occasional showers, well more like the odd splat of rain. Its been getting steadily worse since early evening yesterday.

I got up at 5am for this, hope its worth it !.

Edited November 22, 2012 by WaitingForMackerel

[weatherobsuk]

Awake at 5am and the gusts were starting to make their prescence felt here, increasing in frequency and speed every half-hour since. Now currently at 26mph from the south the LEWP is also beginning to take shape offshore Ireland into the Irish Sea. With little friction in the way of land exposed western coasts are easily going to reach the 70mph gusts as forecast, height is in my favor locally aswell as being some 40 miles out from the Mersey Estuary which in LEWP situations can be the make or break in terms of sustaining such a internal convective system.

[Liam J]

Narrow squall line heading towards SW Scotland and Northern England, expect some nasty conditions over the next few hours. Gale force southerly winds just ahead of the front over the Irish Sea. The front is much more fragmented on the southern flank, but I do expect it will begin to take shape as eastward progression continues, keep watching the radar.

Latest wind speeds - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

http://www.netweathe...n=radarv6;sess=

Edited November 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Wind increasing here too.. mean speed atm is 14.9mph

I don't expect much rain - but then again, I never do.

Edited November 22, 2012 by Aaron

[Chris.R]

Wind has been increasing here all morning, looks like I'll get battered in a few hours. I am going to college at 09:30, but will continue to report on the conditions until then.

Temperature: 10°C

Blustery with a few spots of rain.

[Liam J]

Rain isn't that heavy atm and it looks like the front breaking up and losing it's defined structure.. Very windy though, gusting towards 50mph.

Satellite analysis @ 0621

Edited November 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

The winds will probably peak over the next 2-3 hours across northern & western areas with gale force S'lys penetrating over land for a time especially during the passage of the front where some squally damaging gusts should be expected before veering SW and easing. Then the focus for the strongest winds will be over central & southern areas of the country, again with gale force mean speeds being progged over land.

[Paul]

For those who may not have seen it, as well as the winds and torrential rain there is a moderate risk of severe storms forecast today - so add hail and lightning into the mix and even a low risk of a tornado..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Liam J]

Very defined back edge to this front, click the link to see the cold front being born + developments over the last few hours.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

[Polar Maritime]

Wind picking up here now, gusting to 30mph so far. Interesting day ahead..

[Coast]

I've put some charts and forecasts in the convective thread that are applicable to here as well, but rather than double post, here is the link:

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2410141

Edited November 22, 2012 by Coast

[johnholmes]

Very defined back edge to this front, click the link to see the cold front being born + developments over the last few hours.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

the best sat sequence around in my view

[Liam J]

Very strong winds now being felt in the west with gusts up to and over 60mph across N Wales & the IOM in the last half hour.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Convective]

38mph at the moment here, gusting 50mph. What are the chances of me seeing lightning today? Someone please reply soon before I go!

[Coast]

Already up to 62 mph in Wales according to XC Weather:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Liam J]

38mph at the moment here, gusting 50mph. What are the chances of me seeing lightning today? Someone please reply soon before I go!

A low risk for the time being, if the font pepped up and produced a nice squall line again then you'd be looking at a higher risk with possible hail.

[Liam J]

Peak gusts so far today with 50-60mph being the typical speeds recorded, Highest gust so far has been Capel Curig @ 70mph although this isn't unusual for that station as it's renowned for wind funnelling.

Edited November 22, 2012 by Liam J

[AWD]

Aside from today, Sunday too is starting to look a little interesting;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20121122/00/ecmslp.072.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20121122/00/ecmwind.072.png

[The PIT]

Interesting watching the pulses up the front. So if the GFS is right I'd expect another pulse to come up from the SW as it pushes into central areas.

[weatherobsuk]

The squall is forecasted to break up somewhat as it approaches the Welsh Coast. I'm looking at midday being the main focus when the squall pivots across the Welsh/English borders from the north and begins to intensify once again as it starts to move East quicker from this stall-off point.